Thread by @ClaireMusk

State of #Tesla's US Market Thread, H1 '21:
The @VW ID.3 & ID.4, @Ford Mustang Mach-E, and @Porsche Taycan represent existential threats to #Tesla. Many more imminent & credible threats loom: @BMW i4, @MercedesBenz EQ series, @Nissan Ariya, Porsche Macan EV...
$TSLA $TSLAQ 1/10

...@Cadillac Lyriq, @Hyundai Ioniq 5, @Audi Q4 e-tron, @Volvo XC40 EV, @LucidMotors Air, @MazdaUSA MX-30, & more all due in 2021-2022. They match or exceed everything that (acceleration, range) Tesla offers. 2/10
caranddriver.com/news/g29994375…

Demand for Tesla cars were driven by a combo of the uniqueness/image of EVs, Tesla building a good performance/range EV from the ground up that's not a compliance car, OTA updates, subsidies, fast charging, subsidies and Musk's image. Musk is fast destroying his image... 3/10

The remaining factors have all been grasped by competitor carmakers. The "moats" left to #Tesla are "FSD", infotainment system, & Superchargers. "FSD" is now widely seen as a total sham. The media has caught on to the lie. Tesla's legal filings admit Level 2 automation only. 4/10

Tesla's infotainment system (when not crashing/glitching) has been praised for its smoothness, responsiveness & comprehensiveness, but at the cost of stability & safety. But this is only a moat as long as competitors did not address it. They are now. 5/10 electrek.co/2021/01/07/cad…

Subsidies like the FIT EV credit are now available to competitors but denied to Tesla. Even if the credit is expanded under the Biden administration, it will benefit all competitors equally, and only spur construction of EV fast charging infrastructure... 6/10

...which will breach Tesla's final "moat" - its proprietary Supercharging network - as large numbers of public EV chargers & an intensely competitive field results in Tesla hemorrhaging market share. That's what's happening in the EU, and it will bound to happen in the US. 7/10

Finally, if Q1 '21 numbers disappoint (as I believe they will), it will dent the stock price. A rising tide allowed fanboys to sell $TSLA and buy cars. A receding tide strands fanboys, inflames tempers about Tesla's problems (service, quality, etc.), and decreases sales. 8/10

This will result in a negative feedback loop, which will be amplified as Musk continues to make unforced errors himself. The media was in a feeding frenzy during #FundingSecured, which occurred in the midst of immense, public troubles with Model 3 production. 9/10

I expect a similar sentiment shift to occur in the latter half of this year. Meanwhile, Musk continues to build capacity in the face of shrinking market share & a slowing/slump in sales. Tesla is burning its increasingly shortened candle at both ends, and its future is dim. 10/10