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Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
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26 Mar, 6 tweets, 3 min read
.@Tmgneff, @EricSchmittNYT and @julianbarnes report on the intelligence assessment given to Biden on Afghanistan. Major points: 1/n nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/…
In the absence of intra-Afghan agreement, country can fall to the Taliban within 2 or 3 years after a US withdrawal. Image
Biden admin officials are most sensitive to threats to Afghan women under Taliban. Assessment says initially Taliban won’t roll back rights altogether but once Taliban take over entire country situation will worsen. Image
In current talks on intra-Afghan, there is not enough progress, officials say Taliban stalling. Reduction in violence discussion also stuck. ImageImage
Some officials assess al-Qaeda will re-establish its headquarter in Afghanistan after a withdrawal but others think it may look to Africa or the Middle East. (My comment: Somalia? And where in the Middle East? Surely not Idlib/Syria?) Image
The assessment is that the Taliban will swiftly expand control as suggested by Taliban offensives in Kandahar and Helmand, where police and local forces were unable to hold ground. n/n Image

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More from @asfandyarmir

Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
24 Feb
This is important on Taliban handling of foreign fighters, should be looked at carefully. But is it without precedent? I don't think it is. In fact, it is mostly in line with Taliban messaging on *controlling* foreign fighters over the last year or so. 1/4
A very useful resource on the issue is @franzjmarty's January piece looking at the Taliban's foreign fighter control & management activity. 2/4 globalaffairs.ch/2021/01/05/is-…
In the piece, @franzjmarty examines a Sept 2020 Taliban memo on "affairs of registering and controlling tribal refugees and foreign mujaheddin." He also discusses messages passed to foreign fighters, reportedly with al-Qaida, in Kamdesh, Nuristan. 3/4 globalaffairs.ch/2021/01/05/is-…
Read 4 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
24 Feb
“U.S. intelligence officials said Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups remain active threats inside Afghanistan. But they declined to comment about the Taliban's relationship with Al Qaeda.” nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
“Two Taliban commanders in Afghanistan acknowledged the presence of foreign fighters, but told NBC News that they had made it mandatory that all foreign militants, including members of Al Qaeda, not plan or execute any terrorist attack against the U.S.”
““It was quite before the Doha accord that we had drafted rules for the all 'foreign guests' staying in Afghanistan. Those who wanted to return to their native countries, we helped them,” a commander based in the southern province of Helmand province said.”
Read 4 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
23 Feb
Some important angles in this overview of resumption of talks in Doha by @Kathygannon: apnews.com/article/qatar-…
"While details of the meetings [in Doha] have been sketchy, Afghanistan featured prominently and officials familiar with the talks said a reduction of violence and eventual cease fire dominated discussions."
"Pakistan is seen as critical to getting the Taliban back to the table but also to pressing the insurgent movement __ whose leadership is headquartered in Pakistan __ to reduce violence in Afghanistan."
Read 6 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
23 Feb
This Dadullah interview recorded somewhere in one of the Waziristans and produced by al-Qaida's media arm As-Sahab is an old, among the crazy candid interviews by any Taliban leader that I have come across, especially on al-Qaida-Taliban ties.
From the same interview, Dadullah on how the Taliban treated/will treat foreign fighters:
The other interview which comes close to this in salience, if not in the quality of content, is a Siraj Haqqani "AMA" with the Ansar al-Mujahidin Network in April 2010.
Read 4 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
23 Feb
.@zalmayzia reports on the killing of 4 women aid workers in North Waziristan. nytimes.com/2021/02/22/wor…
"...four aid workers, all women, were killed and the male driver was wounded. A fifth aid worker, also a woman, survived the attack by taking refuge in a nearby house..."
"Frequent reports of targeted assassinations of tribal elders, roadside bomb attacks, and clashes with security forces have raised fears that the region...will relapse into militant control."
Read 6 tweets
Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
23 Feb
Devastating report by @UNAMAnews on civilian harm in Afghanistan in 2020: unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/…
Despite the Feb 2020 deal, 3035 civilians were killed in 2020.
There was a 15% reduction in harm captured by killed+injuries year on year due to fewer complex attacks. But there was increase in other forms of violence, like targeted killings. Civilian casualties by Afghan security forces also increased.
Read 8 tweets

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