Media briefly covered 2.3-2.8C of committed warming, but the implications were seldom explained and this reality soon vanished again.
'existing carbon pollution will cause global temperatures to rise about 2.3°C... with devastating consequences worldwide' commondreams.org/news/2021/01/0…
"..it could take centuries for the bulk of this committed warming to occur.
On the other hand if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the rate we currently are, we will blow through the 1.5 and 2C limits possibly within a few decades.”
'In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072' (median 2052)
'The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.' (19th century baseline)
Use a 18thC baseline and we could expect as early as 2034 even with modest action.
The EU's own Environment Agency says at the present decadal growth rate of 3.0 ppm per year, peak global greenhouse gas concentrations for limiting the increase of global average temperature to 1.5°C will be exceeded around 2021, and, for 2°C, around 2034. eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/…
'It is important to consider all gases and other forcing agents using the so-called ‘CO2 equivalent’ (CO2e); that is an equivalent amount to the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a mixture of CO2 & other forcing agents (ghgs & aerosols)
'global greenhouse gas concentrations must not exceed 465 (range 445-485) ppm and should have returned to 411 (390-430) ppm by 2100 to limit the increase to 1.5 °C; for the 2 °C limit, the corresponding values are 505 (470-540) and 480 (460-500) ppm, respectively.'
The absolute wall-to-wall coverage of the major UN report saying the entire human food system is today in jeopardy due to ecological and climate disasters demonstrates how right we all are to place our absolute trust in state-corporate media.
'At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks...
disasters... are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system'.
We're heading for the global catastrophe of +450 ppm of CO2 by the 2030s in the context of destructive economic growth & industrial agriculture in a world of nuclear weapons.
We can and must force emergency political-economic-system-change action now.
'the eventual warming for 407ppm CO2 will be about 3.5°C'
~James Hansen (who hasn't given up)
3.5°C is horrific, hard to survive. We must suck carbon from the atmosphere, but forests are losing their ability to do this. Industrial methods seem unfeasible.monthlyreview.org/2019/02/01/mr-…
1. many scientists say CO2 concentration levels must be stabilized at 450 ppm to avoid the worst impacts of climate change
2. we're now at 417 ppm
3. governments & corporations plan on keeping emissions so high this decade that we can expect to add 33 ppm by 2033
'Many scientists argue that the CO2 concentration must be stabilized at 450 ppm to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Some activists argue for a more ambitious goal of 350 ppm'
The phrase 'worst impacts' sounds suspiciously euphemistic.
'Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will soar past a scary threshold this year, exceeding 417 parts per million (ppm) — a 50% increase since the start of widespread industrial activity in the 18th century.'
1. Carbon dioxide was below 400 parts per million for the last 15 million years
2. CO2 levels are now 418 ppm and rising fast
3. Some scientists say we’ll probably hit +550 ppm which may well mean unsurvivable levels of warming
4. We can still take emergency action
We need to move away from today's economic growth paradigm according to the IPBES. This is an ecological crisis due to capitalism, which is tied to ongoing imperialism and colonialism. Immediate emergency political-and-economic-system-change action needed. mashable.com/article/climat…
'If the build-up of CO₂ continues at current rates, by 2080 it will have passed 560 ppm – more than double the level of pre-industrial times.'
if CO₂ reaches and stays at that level there is 'up to an 18% chance that temperatures will rise to 4.5°C'. theconversation.com/just-how-sensi…