The two grand themes of my twitter crossed today when. I asked my Tinder date about his time during the national service here in Taiwan and how he thinks he'll fare in an invasion: (thread)
"Well, if they call us up, I guess I'll go and be killed very quickly. The problem is, the training in the army isn't the best. There's a lot of moving things back and forth and weeding. And that with me being a paratrooper."
"I don't think I would be able to shoot very straight. I only got to shoot a gun with ammo once. We did do a lot of pull-ups though. Still, I wouldn't run. I'll just show up to get killed I guess."
"Increase the defense spending? I would reduce it to zero. What's the point? Anyhow. The Chinese ppl I play video games with never talk about politics. I think all the wumaos aren't even in China."
This is pretty shocking. The national service is 14 months and this guy was a paratrooper, so "elite". If he was weeding all day I don't know what other were doing. (/thread)
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Just folding my laundry while watching a hearing on PRC agression on Taiwan. IDK, feeling cute. Might tweet it as I go. uscc.gov/hearings/deter…
Mastro: Bad news is China’s probably going to invade no matter what Taipei or Washington does. Silver lining, tho. It’s waiting for the optimal time to attack so short-term provocations short of declaring independence is not as...triggering.(paraphrased) uscc.gov/sites/default/…
When XI is confident, Mastro thinks he’s going to go for it. More and more increasing confidence. Now more China and American thinkers think China could win in “days not weeks.” (Jaysus!) Western thinker thinks 5 years. Chinese expert told Mastro they’ll be ready in a year.
The game theory aspect of the China-Taiwan invasion scenario is fascinating. So the US currently maintains strategic ambiguity on whether it will come to Taiwan’s rescue for a lot of reasons. Some say it’s time to drop the strategic ambiguity (thread)
After all, the US has also been pushing for Taiwan to embrace asymmetric defense over trying to go head to head with the Chinese invasion force. But asymmetric only makes sense if you can be sure if the cavalry is on the way. Surely dropping SA will reassure Taipei so it’s good.
But wait! Even if the US is 100% going to back Taiwan in the case of an invasion, SA is still useful. If China is not sure the US is going to help Taiwan out, China would likely start with ‘softer’ measures to try and cow the Taiwanese into capitulating w/o amphibious landing.