The game theory aspect of the China-Taiwan invasion scenario is fascinating. So the US currently maintains strategic ambiguity on whether it will come to Taiwan’s rescue for a lot of reasons. Some say it’s time to drop the strategic ambiguity (thread)
After all, the US has also been pushing for Taiwan to embrace asymmetric defense over trying to go head to head with the Chinese invasion force. But asymmetric only makes sense if you can be sure if the cavalry is on the way. Surely dropping SA will reassure Taipei so it’s good.
But wait! Even if the US is 100% going to back Taiwan in the case of an invasion, SA is still useful. If China is not sure the US is going to help Taiwan out, China would likely start with ‘softer’ measures to try and cow the Taiwanese into capitulating w/o amphibious landing.
This will prevent massive and almost certain casualties. BUT If the Chinese knows for sure the US are coming, then it cannot afford to sacrifice the element of surprise. It will start with a full invasion to try and make the taking of Taiwan a fait accompli.
Although with the way geopolitics has been realigning, I don’t know if there is a credible case for the US NOT coming to Taiwan’s rescue. Lose Taiwan, Asia is turning red and the US is just about done as a superpower.
All of this would be a lot more fun to think about if I didn’t live in Taiwan, lol. (/thread)
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