Thread by @AngelicaOung

Just folding my laundry while watching a hearing on PRC agression on Taiwan. IDK, feeling cute. Might tweet it as I go.
uscc.gov/hearings/deter…

Mastro: Bad news is China’s probably going to invade no matter what Taipei or Washington does. Silver lining, tho. It’s waiting for the optimal time to attack so short-term provocations short of declaring independence is not as...triggering.(paraphrased)
uscc.gov/sites/default/…

When XI is confident, Mastro thinks he’s going to go for it. More and more increasing confidence. Now more China and American thinkers think China could win in “days not weeks.” (Jaysus!) Western thinker thinks 5 years. Chinese expert told Mastro they’ll be ready in a year.

Mastro thinks deterrence by denial the only way. “I think if Xi Jinping knows he’ll lose his navy to get Taiwan, he’ll still go for it.” If US signals resolve too well that could lead XI to front-load attack, including full amphibious invasion and even strikes on US bases.

So what to do? US must keep strategic ambiguity while leveling up US capabilities. Only thing that will prevent China from taking Taiwan is brute force. Taiwan is never going to be able to defend itself against China with all the asymmetric deterrence in the world.

Templeman talks about Taiwan's will to fight. (1) Taiwanese resolve depends on whether they think US will back (2) Taiwan was shirking military defense spending but better under Tsai (3) No desire for TWese youth to join military.

Contradiction: young TW most pro-Taiwan, pro-independence. But they don’t wanna fight! PR work for military needed.

Recommendation: Strengthen the credibility of US commitment to Taiwan thru non-military ties.Re-engage with Taiwan through trade.
uscc.gov/sites/default/…

Cozad: We don’t understand PLA enough beyond what we can observe (cataloguing equipment etc.) We must understand PLA self-assessment that will tell us more about Beijing willingness to use force. PLA will use deception to look more confident and strong.

Question (commissioner Wong): China is preparing “battle space” by cutting off Taiwan from international allies. Expand Taiwan’s role in the world increases connection and thus deterrence?

Mastro: Correct. Increasing international space for Taiwan does not meet threshold...

...for triggering war. Horizontal escalation...involving more players...is the NUMBER ONE DETERRENCE TO BEIJING. Problem is allies are not on board to the degrees many assume. E.g. Australians sees this as a war of choice for US and not something they need to be involved.

Templeton: dropping strategic ambiguity will provoke China, perhaps cause Taiwan to slack on defense, and most importantly make US open to “entrapment.” Tsai won’t be prez forever. What if whoever succeeds her less cautious and draw us into war with provocative action?

Question: How do we deter not just China but Xi since his personal ambition is driving this?

Mastro: Shake his confidence in his military. Stealth actions to undermine his trust in his men.

Ppl underestimate the prize of Taiwan. Defeat the US? You are now the hegemon of Asia.

Q: You say Chinese leaders do not have to force complete unification to present to ppl as success. But what does ”incomplete unification” look like?

Mastro: They can take one of the outside islands and declare partial victory. Face-saving off ramp.

China can go again and again

Templeman: Disagree. Any military action that doesn’t involve in the annexation of Taiwan will not improve chance of winning the next round. Will end debate about Beijing’s intentions and will accelerate re-arming. Allies and partners will be galvanized. Will accelerate Quad.

Q: What about the American will? We have strategic ambiguity, but what about actual ambiguity? Not sure Americans are onboard with defending Taiwan.

Mastro: Without a doubt the American military have the resolve to fight. If we can shorten duration, American public less factor

Laundry done. That's a thread. But boy there's more gold in that hearing. Off for vermicelli and luwei...🧵