Thread by @bhrenton

As @apoorva_nyc reports, the number of new Covid-19 cases in Florida has been steadily rising. With concerns of spring break spread, we are beginning to see in the data increased spread among the younger population. A short thread on the numbers:
nytimes.com/2021/03/28/wor…

First, let's acknowledge the limitations. While many young people are traveling to Florida for spring break, many will not test positive until they return home. Regardless, evidence from @danielmangrum shows that spring break 2020 did contribute to spread.

https://twitter.com/danielmangrum/status/1263513039397101568

Using epi line list data of all 2 million+ cases in the state since the pandemic began, we are beginning to see an uptick in two age bands: 15-24 (orange) and 25-34 (red). These are increasing more steeply than other age bands.

Visualized in another way, look at the uptick in the yellow and green age bands.

Put another way, the older population is now comprising a smaller percentage of the total daily cases as vaccinations take into effect. Just in the past week or so, cases among those 2 age bands in question have been rising.

In other words, cases among those 85+ have decreased 5.6% compared to the beginning of the month. However, cases among those 15-24 years old have increased by 21.9%.

We also see the median age of new cases dipping slightly since the beginning of the year, from 42 in January to 37.64 now.

Why should this worry us? Two reasons (similar to Michigan): Variants and vaccinations. The number of confirmed cases of the B.1.1.7 variant has been rising in Florida and genomic sequencing data also point to similar trends.

https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1376237258022395907

When it comes to vaccinations, Florida ranks:
- 34th in doses administered per capita
- 35th in the percentage of the population with at least 1 dose
- 40th in the percentage of the population fully vaccinated
- 19th in 65+ with at least 1 dose (most vulnerable)

Essentially, with an uneven vaccine rollout, the younger population are still very likely to spread the virus to those more at risk, both in Florida and in individuals' home states. We must continue to monitor the data and take a granular approach to looking at spread.

One final map: This map shows where cases have increased compared to the beginning of the month. The Daytona Beach and Miami Beach areas are worth monitoring.