In 63 days, we have exceeded President Biden's goal of 100 million shots in 100 days. When he announces his new goal tomorrow, we will update the tracker.
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A major study was announced today with 12,000 college students to help understand the impacts of Covid-19 vaccination on further spread and transmission. @lindsayaellis discusses the project here, which is funded by NIAID. Short thread on the study: chronicle.com/article/when-t…
The study will take place at 21 universities, many large institutions, nationwide. About half of the students will receive the vaccine injections right away, and the other half will receive the vaccine a few months later. The students will each identify “close contacts.”
These close contacts, around 25,000 of them, will also be in the study. Information on specifics was presented in today's White House briefing. The clinical trial record is available here, for those interested in specific endpoints. clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
It ain't over till it's over. While cases throughout much of the country have continued to decline, Michigan has seen an increase in new cases and hospitalizations. This could point to the effects of variants in a largely unvaccinated population. Thread: covidtracking.com/analysis-updat…
First, let's show how we got here. The increase in cases may be attributed to not only pandemic fatigue, but also policy that opened indoor dining to 25% (February 1) and 50% capacity (March 5). This was after largely successful policy in November.
Enter variants. The B.1.1.7 variant has been increasing in prevalence in Michigan, now estimated to be 60% of cases — higher than Florida, according to Helix data (graphic credit @EricTopol). Michigan may be the bellwether state on this variant. helix.com/pages/helix-co…
The CDC pulls numbers from state immunization sites every morning at 6 a.m. (the daily cutoff). It spends the morning verifying these numbers and publishes a public update by 8 p.m. (usually some time in the afternoon).
Today, the CDC reported 2,977,732 doses by the 6 a.m. cutoff (a record regardless) and then had a delay in data syncing, resulting in 4,575,496 new doses administered that were reported. This means tomorrow's numbers will be slightly lower than usual.
As per usual, doses are reported two ways: by the day they are reported (right) and the day they are actually administered (left). The graph on the left is backfilled each day as states report more doses. However, we often use the graph on the right for daily vaccinations.
Earlier this week, Alaska made vaccines available to those 16 and older, becoming the first state to remove eligibility requirements. It leads the nation with 17% of its population fully vaccinated. So what can we learn? And what is it sometimes hard to compare states? A thread:
While Alaska is the first state to remove eligibility requirements, effective immediately, other states are expected to do the same in the coming weeks, and certainly before President Biden's deadline on May 1. We will continue to track these. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03…
Vaccination plans are complex and in order to make comparisons among states with metrics such as doses per capita and percentage of the population vaccinated, we must consider:
- Supply
- Delivery
- Uptake
- Population characteristics
North Dakota leads the nation with 87.3% of shots used. The percentage of supply used is merely one metric to compare states, and soon the dashboard will have more metrics for you to use. The 7-day average is now 2.17 million doses per day.
15.7 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna doses have been allocated for jurisdictions next week. The dashboard has been updated with the latest allocations.
It's important to note that each state has different population characteristics that could affect the speed of its vaccination rollout. For example 7.5% of residents in Alaska are over the age of 70, compared to 13.4% in Vermont. State governments often know what is best.
This is not necessarily endorsing a particular state's strategy. Rather, it is stating the fact that states are allocated doses based on its general adult population, not according to each state's individual strategy. States using an aged-based system may take…
…longer to move through age bands, particularly if the average age is older than other states. Additionally, vaccine uptake plays a huge role — some states have ensured high uptake in each group before moving on to the next one.