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Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
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29 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Another tweet on how hospitalizations for COVID-19 right now are lower than that of influenza in past year due to vaccines. 4 data sources:
1)gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet…
2)gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/…
3) cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…
4) cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
As the vaccines take hold, the reduction in 65+ hospitalizations is apparent in COVID. For MMWR Week 11 (w/e 3/20/21) COVID hospitalizations are less than the 2018/2019 and 2017/2018 Flu Seasons in 65+ and less overall than the 2018/2019 Flu Season. Flu The never tested for at
the level of COVID, but, as the data indicates the positivity rates for those who did get a Flu test were much higher than where we are with COVID, now.
Overall
COVID -- 5.7 per 100k -- 382,473 cases on 8,411,837 tests or a 4.1% positivity rate (as reported by the CDC)
2018/2019 Flu: 5.2 per 100k,10.591 cases on 41,054 tests or a 25.8% positivity rate
2017/2018 Flu -2.8 per 100k, 4,223 cases on 28,157 tests or a 15.0% positivity rate
MMWR week 9 (w/e 3/6/21):
65+ COVID -15.4 per 100k
2018/2019 Flu - 16.9 per 100k
2017/2018 Flu -- 14.9 per 100k
Overall
COVID -- 5.8 per 100k -- 437,855 cases on 8,489,908 tests or a 4.5% positivity rate (reported CDC)
2018/2019 Flu - 4.6 per 100k -- 9,434 cases on 36,193 tests or a 26.1% positivity rate
2017/2018 Flu - 3.6 per 100k -- 6,193 cases on 34,974 tests or a 17.7% positivity rate
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More from @MonicaGandhi9

Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
30 Mar
A city turning against itself over schools: "Critics of San Francisco’s brand of liberal politics have long pointed to a disconnect between elected officials’ lofty rhetoric about social justice, and the reality of a city where fabulous wealth lives
nytimes.com/2021/03/29/us/…
side-by-side with extreme poverty & despair, exemplified by the homelessness, drug abuse & mental illness on the city’s streets...Amid the chaos 1 thing has remained clear: A large share of the city’s public school students are unlikely to see the inside of classrooms this year"
On the other hand and a piece of bright news, Oakland students (youngest) did return for in-person learning yesterday. "As a kindergartner, he “doesn't remember what it’s like to be in a classroom,”"
sfchronicle.com/local/article/….
Read 4 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
30 Mar
Cases continue to be weighted at a greater "threat" level than hospitalizations or positivity rate. Since metrics don't align, state can be testing in a Dark Green Zone, have a Light Green/Yellow Positivity Rate, but have a Dark Red Threat Level on Cases per 100K. Let's look at
NY, NJ, PA, MI, OH (19% of the U.S. population), where NPIs are still being maintained:
Last 7 day cases -- 160,406 (Dark Red Zone) of the 422,980 or 38% of the cases
Last 7 day tests -- 2,072,485 (Light Green Zone) of the 8,032,744 tests or 26% of the tests
Positivity Rate -- 7.7% (Yellow Zone)
Last 7 day hospitalization admissions -- 10,751 (Light Green Zone) of the 33,714 hosp. admissions or 32%.
So, good to see positivity rate, hospitalizations, tests all yellow-light green. Would be helpful to take those metrics into account.
Read 6 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
29 Mar
Wanted to break down this CDC study today to show you how remarkably effective these vaccines are- simply,
-Without vaccination, you would expect among 1000 people to see 162 infections
-With full vaccination among 1000 people, you would see 1 infection
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
This MMWR article looked at data from healthcare personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers across six geographic regions in the U.S. from December 14, 2020–March 13, 2021 since vaccines were being rolled out in these groups early.
In total, this analysis involved 3950 participants (in Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, Texas and Utah) who have never had COVID-19 before by laboratory tests 2,479 (62.8%) received both recommended mRNA doses and 477 (12.1%) received only one dose of mRNA vaccine by the time
Read 9 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
27 Mar
GREAT NEWS on what we are all eyeing carefully as scientists, public, media: Are hospitalizations per case decreasing in light of vaccines which defang virus . YES, massively. Let's look at statistics from two data sources
healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1… and
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
CASES:
57k cases 7 day average, +7% from prior week
CDC compared to closest 7 day average was July 23, 2020: 63k
Peak of 7 day average 250k cases on January 11, 2021
Currently down -77% from the peak on cases.
TESTS:
1080K tests 7 day average, -10% from prior week July 23, 2020
week 7 day test average was 858K. Test positivity rate was 4.7%; July 23, 2020 positivity rate was 7.3%
Peak of 7 day average was 2.0 million in tests on January 18, 2021
Cases and test positivity: Currently down -46% from the peak on tests. Currently 57k cases vs. 63K July 23
Read 18 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
27 Mar
Why so excited about IgA? Wanted to explain immunoglobulins (antibodies) a bit to explain why the real-world data is showing us that the #covid19 vaccines block transmission. There are 5 different types of immunoglobulins in human body: IgA, IgM, IgG, IgD, IgE. You hear a lot
about "antibodies" and neutralizing antibodies after #covid19 infection & #covid19 vax, which refers to IgG immunoglobulins. But function of IgA antibodies is to protect us at the surfaces that face the world, the "mucosa": nose, mouth, gut, genitals, etc
nature.com/articles/nm1213
Obviously, 1st line of defense against respiratory pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 is where you encounter it (nose/mouth) so IgA responses there after vaccination would help you fight the virus the minute you are exposed and, importantly, limit viral replication so you can't pass it on
Read 13 tweets
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH Profile picture
26 Mar
Wanted to address "vaccine hesitancy" as supply expands. I truly believe they are safe and profoundly effective but an infection will still go down to low-grade endemicity (very low cases) if many are vaccinated; thereby keeping unvaccinated safe. Vaccinated safe from vax. So, ok
ok if you want to wait & see. I go to same tiny grocery store a lot & person at counter says he is waiting to see others get vaccinated first. That is of course okay. Just like yelling at someone about masks, yelling at someone about getting vax is so wrong. As more sheep turn
pink, nonimmune not as likely to encounter each other & spread. We know these vaccines reduce transmission 80-94% (previous threads, real-world data), so not everyone needs to get vax. Israel case curve below at 56% fully vaccinated; looks like 60% if going to be herd immunity.
Read 5 tweets

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