Thread by @MonicaGandhi9

GREAT NEWS on what we are all eyeing carefully as scientists, public, media: Are hospitalizations per case decreasing in light of vaccines which defang virus . YES, massively. Let's look at statistics from two data sources
healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1… and
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

CASES:
57k cases 7 day average, +7% from prior week
CDC compared to closest 7 day average was July 23, 2020: 63k
Peak of 7 day average 250k cases on January 11, 2021
Currently down -77% from the peak on cases.
TESTS:
1080K tests 7 day average, -10% from prior week July 23, 2020

week 7 day test average was 858K. Test positivity rate was 4.7%; July 23, 2020 positivity rate was 7.3%
Peak of 7 day average was 2.0 million in tests on January 18, 2021
Cases and test positivity: Currently down -46% from the peak on tests. Currently 57k cases vs. 63K July 23

or -10% cases down from there.
Okay, HOSPITALIZATIONS per CASE: New hospital admissions 4.7k 7 day average last week. Hospitalization data not available for the July 23, 2020 time period (only 60% of the hospitals were reporting)
Closest date was August 2, 2020 -- 7 day average

was 5.7 New Hospital Admission a day on 60.8 cases a day. So even though current cases are up +7% (and on +26% of the tests of the closest reporting week) they are not resulting in hospitalizations at the U.S. Total level. Currently hospitalized 33K; peak was 116K on 1/10/21

Deaths: 946: 7 day average vs. 1,031 7 day average week prior or -8.2%.
WHAT ZONES ARE WE IN?
Now, total COVID U.S. hospitalizations are at 5% or in the Light Green Zone. Hospitalizations have been in light green (up to 7% of hospitalizations for COVID-19) since February 24, 2021

Currently, test Positivity Rate is 4.7% (Light Green Zone) and has been in the Light Green Zone since February 27, 2021.
Currently, the total COVID Cases are in the Light Red Zone at 121 per 100k for the last 7 days. (The cases are weighted at a greater threat than

hospitalizations according the the HHS/CDC/ASPR methodology). So, light green zone in hospitalizations and test positivity and definitely falling hospitalizations per case. So don't be afraid to dive deep into data when feeling fear (, it is a lot of work but worth it)

Ok what about Michigan?
Last 7 Day Admissions -- 1,653 vs. prior 7 days 1,039 or +59% -- even with this high % increase -- Michigan stayed in the same "Light Green Zone" for COVID-19 inpatient beds at COVID being 6% of all inpatient beds.
26,271 cases to 1,653 hospital admissions

yields a 6.3% conversion rate case to admission
Prior 7 days 17,707 cases to 1,039 hospital admissions yields a 5.9% conversion rate case to admission. Current COVID-19 impatient beds -- 6% (Light Green Zone) -- Prior 7 days -- 4% (Light Green Zone)
Current COVID-19 ICU beds

-- 12% (Yellow Zone) -- Prior 7 days -- 9% (Yellow Zone). Michigan Ranks #29 in vax for 65+ fully dosed. Although Detroit trails MI according to the Atlantic. Article is 8 days old, but Detroit was trailing
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

in vax by 18-23% depending if looking at 65-74 or 75+, on first doses. "The vaccination of people 65 and older and of nursing-home residents should blunt the death toll of a rise in cases. But according to state data, Michigan has administered first doses to 61 percent of its ..

its residents aged 65–74, and 62 percent of residents 75 and older. Detroit’s figures are much lower: The city has given first doses to only 43 percent of those aged 65–74 and 39 percent of people 75 and older. For comparison, the CDC reports that 66 percent of the U.S.

population aged 65 and up has received at least one dose of vaccine. The numbers are even worse for Black people in Michigan: Statewide, just 28 percent of Black residents 65 and older are known to have received at least one dose of vaccine. Overall, Michigan has administered

first doses to only about a quarter of its total population, and that number falls to 15 percent in Detroit." So maybe what is happening in Michigan is not such a mystery after all? Again, dig deep into hospitalizations per case when putting out our headlines; work but helpful!

Compare to New York: Last 7 Day Admissions -- 3,843 vs. prior 7 days 3,712 or +4% -- even with this % increase -- New York stayed in the same "Yellow Zone" for COVID-19 inpatient beds at COVID being 10% of all inpatient beds. 56,757 cases to 3,843 hospital admissions yields

a 6.8% conversion rate case to admission. Prior 7 days 45,943 cases to 3,712 hospital admissions yields a 8.1% conversion rate case to admission. Current COVID-19 impatient beds -- 10% (Yellow Zone) -- Prior 7 days -- 10% (Yellow Zone)
New York ranks #48 in 65+ fully dosed

@threadreader please unroll