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JPR007

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30 Mar, 17 tweets, 5 min read

EUROPE BEVS IN 2020

With carsalesbase.com as the data source, here are their reported numbers for 2020 in Europe by model

First the raw data :

- starting with the total of 740,805 units and working in reverse order

1/

VW IN EUROPE 2020

54,495 for VW ID.3

33,650 for VW eGolf

21,942 for VW e-Up!

4,710 for VW ID.4

Total = 114,797 units

Market = 740,805 units

VW = 15.5% of Europe market

4/

TESLA IN EUROPE 2020

85,979 for Tesla Model 3

6,007 for Tesla Model X

5,562 for Tesla Model X

Total = 97,548 units

Market = 740,805 units

Tesla = 13.2% of Europe market

5/

VW GLOBAL 2020

54,495 for VW ID.3 - only in Europe

36,016 for VW eGolf = +2,366 for Worldwide

21,942 for VW e-Up! - only in Europe

4,710 for VW ID.4 - only in Europe

Total = 117,163 units

Global BEV Market = 2,141,311 units ?

VW = 5.5% of Global BEV market

6/

VW GROUP GLOBAL 2020

Global BEV Market = 2,141,311 units ?

VW Total = 117,163 units

VW = 5.5% of Global BEV market

Rest of VW Group = 110,231 units

VW Group Total = 227,394 units

VW Group = 10.6% of Global BEV market

7/

TESLA GLOBAL 2020

Tesla Global Total = 499,535 units

Global BEV Market = 2,141,311 units ?

Tesla = 23.3% of Global market

8/

TOP GLOBAL MODELS 2020

Global BEV Market Share :

17.1% Tesla Model 3

5.6% Wuling Hongguang Mini

4.7% Renault Zöe

3.7% Tesla Model Y

3.0% Hyundai Kona EV

9/

GLOBAL BEV LEADERS 2020

According to Jose Pontes

- aggregated by Group

10/

GLOBAL BEV MARKET SHARE 2020

- by Group

- showing currently available data

11/

GLOBAL BEV MARKET SHARE 2020

- by Group

- showing currently available data

12/

GLOBAL BEV VOLUME 2020

- by Group

- showing currently available data

13/

GLOBAL BEV VOLUME 2010-2020

- by Region and Country

- showing currently available data

14/

GLOBAL BEV FLEET SIZE 2010-2020

6,932,186 units as of 2020

15/

GLOBAL BEV FLEET 2010-2020

Tesla Share = 20.5% as of 2020

- and still growing

16/

GLOBAL BEV FLEET OUTLOOK 2020-2040

2,200 million units by 2040

- 33.4% per annum CAGR

- if OEMs will move fast enough

Biggest problem ?

- Slow Competitors

17/

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JPR007

@jpr007

31 Mar

@ModelQ23

@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen "What's the difference between gross margin and operating margin?"

A lot

Let's see if I can illustrate it clearly enough with my existing slides on the Auto business

1. In the picture here we can see the average selling price of a Tesla car in 2020 Q3 as $54,523

@ModelQ23

@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen 2. The two Red parts of the bar represent the Cost of Goods

Which is all of the direct costs of actually making the vehicle, including :

- Raw Materials

- Parts and Components

- Energy

- Labor

- Equipment

- Factory

- Manufacturing Overhead including Factory Management

@ModelQ23

@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen 3. Most of those are Costs that get paid in Cash at the time of production

- but the Factory Buildings and Equipment had to be built in advance so they are already paid for and instead get charged as a non-Cash Depreciation charge to "recover" those investments

Read 22 tweets

JPR007

@jpr007

31 Mar

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1376992627069964291

WHEN COMEDY BECOMES REAL LIFE

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1376992627069964291

BMW 1/

LOOKING AT BMW

VEHICLES SOLD

1.723 million

BMW 2/

Read 20 tweets

JPR007

@jpr007

30 Mar

Korea's local daily newspaper Chosun Ilbo today claims an exclusive report on a renewed partnership between Tesla and Toyota

This seems highly speculative so we should wait to see or hear something more concrete from Tesla
chosun.com/economy/int_ec…

Here is a translation of the Chosun Ilbo report :

It is heard that Tesla and Toyota have been reviewing their partnership since last year and are nearing the final stage

According to an official from the Japanese auto industry on the 28th, Tesla and Toyota are considering co-developing a small electric SUV platform as the basic frame of the car

The alliance review has been under way since last year

Read 24 tweets

JPR007

@jpr007

30 Mar

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1376713971936321536

THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON AUTOMOBILE PRICES

The average transaction price reported for light vehicles in the U.S. market has typically been increasing by about +2% per year

And in February this YOY rate even increased by +6.5%

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1376713971936321536

This illustrates that the average consumer continues to gain an increasing capacity to pay

- and an increasing propensity to spend that on higher-priced vehicles

- often manifested as both shifts in the sales mix as well as higher price realization and actual price increases

At a minimum we should expect this price trend of +2% per annum to continue, in line with previously stated inflation targets

If it does so, today's ASP $41,066 will become approximately $50,000 in 2031 or 10 years from now

Read 5 tweets

JPR007

@jpr007

29 Mar

Tesla: Elon fires against ZDF - Fake News?

The controversial topic of water supply really gets Elon Musk's goat

"Shame on ZDF" tweets the Tesla maker at the public broadcaster

A TV documentary criticises the most modern car company on the planet
sharedeals.de/tesla-elon-feu…

ZDF broadcast its report "Turbo, Tempo, Tesla" at 9 pm on 16 March 2021 at prime time

It was about the new gigafactory in Berlin, the contentious issue of water reserves and Tesla's PR work, which sometimes seems distant in Germany

Tesla is building the factory south of Berlin at record speed

The fear is obviously that the series production of 500,000 electric cars annually in Grünheide could affect significant parts of the water supply

An irritated Musk contradicts the portrayal in the film

Read 8 tweets

JPR007

@jpr007

29 Mar

UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT MARKET

Credit Suisse and Nomura warn of losses after $20bn stock fire sale

- a major Prime Brokerage Client defaults on their Margin Calls and they dump the shares that it was holding into the market to cover their exposure
on.ft.com/3waENaK

Archegos - read as "Arch Egos" - is a family office that manages the wealth of Bill Hwang, a “Tiger cub” alumnus of Julian Robertson’s legendary Tiger Management hedge fund

It had about $10bn of assets last week according to prime brokers

New York-based Hwang previously ran the Tiger Asia hedge fund, but he returned cash to investors in 2012 when he admitted to wire fraud relating to Chinese bank stocks

Read 16 tweets

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