JPR007 Profile picture
31 Mar, 20 tweets, 5 min read
BMW 1/
LOOKING AT BMW

VEHICLES SOLD

1.723 million

BMW 2/
VEHICLES SOLD 2019-2020

1.72 million down from 2.00 million

BMW 3/
TOTAL REVENUES

$124.0 billion

BMW 4/
AUTOMOTIVE REVENUES

$96.2 billion

BMW 5/
AUTOMOTIVE REVENUE PER VEHICLE

$55,859 per vehicle

BMW 6/
AUTOMOTIVE GROSS MARGIN

18.7%

BMW 7/
R+D EXPENSE

$6.8 billion

BMW 8/
OVERHEAD

$10.5 billion

BMW 9/
AUTOMOTIVE OPERATING PROFIT

$0.7 billion

BMW 10/
AUTOMOTIVE OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN

0.7%

BMW 11/
REPORTED NET INCOME

$4.5 billion

Valuation at 10x P/E Multiple BMW = $45 billion

BMW 12/
MARKET VALUE

$60.4 billion

P/E Multiple = $60.4 billion / $4.5 billion = 13.4x

BMW 13/
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

$3.7 billion

P/E Multiple = $60.4 billion / $3.7 billion = 16.3x

BMW 14/
CHANGE IN SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY

$1.9 billion

BMW 15/
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS

$15.8 billion

BMW 16/
CASH

$16.1 billion

BMW 17/
NET CASH

minus $110.4 billion

BMW 18/
FULL ENTERPRISE VALUE FEV

$245 billion

Applying Comprehensive Income :

FEV / Earnings Multiple = $245 billion / $3.7 billion = 65.6x

BMW 19/ END

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More from @jpr007

31 Mar
@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen "What's the difference between gross margin and operating margin?"

A lot

Let's see if I can illustrate it clearly enough with my existing slides on the Auto business

1. In the picture here we can see the average selling price of a Tesla car in 2020 Q3 as $54,523 Image
@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen 2. The two Red parts of the bar represent the Cost of Goods

Which is all of the direct costs of actually making the vehicle, including :

- Raw Materials

- Parts and Components

- Energy

- Labor

- Equipment

- Factory

- Manufacturing Overhead including Factory Management
@ModelQ23 @ConwayYen 3. Most of those are Costs that get paid in Cash at the time of production

- but the Factory Buildings and Equipment had to be built in advance so they are already paid for and instead get charged as a non-Cash Depreciation charge to "recover" those investments
Read 22 tweets
30 Mar
EUROPE BEVS IN 2020

With carsalesbase.com as the data source, here are their reported numbers for 2020 in Europe by model

First the raw data :

- starting with the total of 740,805 units and working in reverse order

1/ Image
2/ Image
3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
30 Mar
Korea's local daily newspaper Chosun Ilbo today claims an exclusive report on a renewed partnership between Tesla and Toyota

This seems highly speculative so we should wait to see or hear something more concrete from Tesla
chosun.com/economy/int_ec…
Here is a translation of the Chosun Ilbo report :

It is heard that Tesla and Toyota have been reviewing their partnership since last year and are nearing the final stage
According to an official from the Japanese auto industry on the 28th, Tesla and Toyota are considering co-developing a small electric SUV platform as the basic frame of the car

The alliance review has been under way since last year
Read 24 tweets
30 Mar
THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON AUTOMOBILE PRICES

The average transaction price reported for light vehicles in the U.S. market has typically been increasing by about +2% per year

And in February this YOY rate even increased by +6.5%
This illustrates that the average consumer continues to gain an increasing capacity to pay

- and an increasing propensity to spend that on higher-priced vehicles

- often manifested as both shifts in the sales mix as well as higher price realization and actual price increases
At a minimum we should expect this price trend of +2% per annum to continue, in line with previously stated inflation targets

If it does so, today's ASP $41,066 will become approximately $50,000 in 2031 or 10 years from now
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Tesla: Elon fires against ZDF - Fake News?

The controversial topic of water supply really gets Elon Musk's goat

"Shame on ZDF" tweets the Tesla maker at the public broadcaster

A TV documentary criticises the most modern car company on the planet
sharedeals.de/tesla-elon-feu…
ZDF broadcast its report "Turbo, Tempo, Tesla" at 9 pm on 16 March 2021 at prime time

It was about the new gigafactory in Berlin, the contentious issue of water reserves and Tesla's PR work, which sometimes seems distant in Germany
Tesla is building the factory south of Berlin at record speed

The fear is obviously that the series production of 500,000 electric cars annually in Grünheide could affect significant parts of the water supply

An irritated Musk contradicts the portrayal in the film
Read 8 tweets
29 Mar
UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT MARKET

Credit Suisse and Nomura warn of losses after $20bn stock fire sale

- a major Prime Brokerage Client defaults on their Margin Calls and they dump the shares that it was holding into the market to cover their exposure
on.ft.com/3waENaK
Archegos - read as "Arch Egos" - is a family office that manages the wealth of Bill Hwang, a “Tiger cub” alumnus of Julian Robertson’s legendary Tiger Management hedge fund

It had about $10bn of assets last week according to prime brokers
New York-based Hwang previously ran the Tiger Asia hedge fund, but he returned cash to investors in 2012 when he admitted to wire fraud relating to Chinese bank stocks
Read 16 tweets

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