I'd also be interested in the question posed the other way round: what is the value of "firm" clean generation in the presence of VRE, batteries and long-term storage?
E.g. how much does system cost reduce by adding nuclear/CCS etc. to wind+solar+batteries+hydrogen.
Either way, the system costs of all these options is in a similar ball park, which throws up the question:
What do we actually want?
What can we build quickly, with wide public approval?
This cuts also for VRE: in Europe there have been persistent and widespread issues with onshore wind forced without local consent, as well as overhead transmission. Less with offshore and solar.
Lots more discussion on socal licence, consensus building and equity to be had!
PS You can play with similar electricity models here:
- end of coal
- efficiency
- electrification
- renewables (he developed first hydro power)
- open data
- technological learning ("tendency of progress is to quicken progress")
Electrolysis was also the means of making heavy water (D2O), a neutron moderator, from its discovery in the 1930s until the GS process replaced it in the mid-1940s.
Heavy water was crucial for making the atomic bomb.
This made electrolysis of great military importance in WWII.
"VRE cannibalisation is a policy artefact, not a physical system constraint"
Short version:
Some studies show that average revenues for wind and solar go down with rising share.
We show that the studies have an implicit assumption that variable renewable energy (VRE) are forced into the system, which depresses prices and their own market value (MV).
This toy model meets a constant demand over a year of weather data
The default setting is to use wind, solar, batteries and hydrogen storage only; further technologies can be added, as can H2 demand (for heavy transport and industry)
In this example for a 100 MW demand in Germany, when wind (blue) and solar (yellow) generation exceed demand (black line), electricity is stored (negative values) in batteries (grey) or used to electrolyse water to hydrogen (cyan), which is then stored underground
H2morrow would supply industry with H2 in west of Germany (NRW), importing natural gas from Norway.
Uses autothermal reforming (ATR) to produce H2. CO2 is captured, liquified, then shipped on Rhine down to Rotterdam and onwards to Norway, where it will be sequestered offshore.
Aim is to do further technical studies in coming years, and have the project operational by 2030.