1/ Elon sez a cell shortage will constrain $tsla Semi production. More fraud? Another SEC Consent & Final Judgment violation? Let's explore...
2/ To even come close to its promised specifications, the $tsla Semi will need to use the 4680 battery. Not just any 4680 battery, which several other cell manufacturers are already making. But the 4680 battery Tubby Hairplugs boasted about on Battery Day.
3/ $TSLA began pumping the dry electrode coating process when it acquired Maxwell Technologies two years ago. Naturally, its army of cultist followers swallowed the story whole. Example here:
4/ The problem is, the technology is unproven. "[LG Chem] has made samples for the so-called 4680 large-format cylindrical cells... It faces technological hurdles and the challenge of scaling up production..."
5/ Even Musk was careful at last September's Battery Day to issue cautions about whether the technology can be made commercially feasible.
6/ So now, Elon is promising that by next year, the 4680 cell, with $TSLA's novel dry electrode coating technology, will be commercially feasible, will be ready by next year? If not, what else does he mean by "less onerous"?
7/ This is another Elon promise. It is material. It is unqualified. The clear implication is that Tesla will be capable of using the dry electrode technology in a commercially feasible manner. Was this statement approved by the Twitter Sitter? Is there an 8-K?
8/ Will any of the lickspittles who are allowed to ask questions about this at the next earnings call dare to probe, just a bit, and ask about something important? And if that happens, will Elon & Co. do other than evade & prevaricate? TBD.
9/ Good thread here. Thank you, @TaylorOgan, for calling it to my attention:
1/ Just finished Stephen Bungay's "The Most Dangerous Enemy" about The Battle of Britain (Aurum Press 2000). There is no way I can do justice to the book, but here are a few things to say...
2/ The book is supremely well researched, and brilliantly organized. It also upsets many myths about the 1940 battle, when the UK stood alone. More importantly, Bungay is a scholar, a poet, a contrarian thinker (open to all data), and...
3/ ...he extensively researched the facts of what actually happened, consulting both UK and German records, cutting through (and explaining the "why" of) the exaggerated claims each side made at the time.
1/ Sometimes I write an article that manages to obscure the main points. It happened today, when @SeekingAlpha published my latest collaboration with MaxedOutMama. Here, I'll explain how the conclusion should have read. Here's a link to the article.
2/ The key point I should have stressed is that $TSLA's return on investment in China is going to be far more modest than its fans (& analysts, & the biz media, but I repeat myself) believe. Indeed, China may become a capital drain. Why? Several reasons:
3/ First, China's NEV Plan requires sharing, collaboration, and standardization (of battery swapping, charging infrastructure, etc) that will remove some of Tesla's key advantages.
1/ Allow me a thread on this German $tsla & @elonmusk documentary. First, thank you, @russ1mitchell, for calling it to our attention. And, yes, it is well done, and it was heartening to see @CristinaIBalan have an opportunity to tell a small part of her story.
2/ One hesitates to quibble at a production so fine, but there are some serious shortcomings that should be mentioned...
3/ ...For instance, the idea that Musk was responsible for the success of PayPal is nonsense, and has been amply debunked by many, most especially by @Tweetermeyer in his superb book, Ludicrous. Still the best book out there about both Musk and Tesla. amazon.com/Ludicrous-Unva…
1/ Cathie was one of the two $tsla bulls on a “Tesla debate“ panel at the 2018 Robinhood Conference (no, not that Robin Hood). Gordon Johnson & I were the bears. Looking Cathie in the eye on that occasion, I couldn’t decide whether she was crazy or merely cynical.
2/ At the time, I thought Cathie’s Tesla target price of $4000 per share was insane. How wrong I was. Her target was not insane. The market was insane.
3/ But ask yourself: Who benefited from this insanity? Who fed it? With what motives? With what absurd projections and models? With what endless cynicism?
1/ The analysts think $TSLA will sell some 820k (+ or - 50k) cars in 2021, with more than 80% of the growth coming in China. MaxedOutMama & I say otherwise:
2/ Much of this article is the summation of a data-dense, fact-intensive blog post by MaxedOutMama. It's another superb piece of work by her. In a just world, she would have more followers than I do.
3/ There's also some detail about an intriguing new lawsuit alleging serious misbehavior by $TSLA regarding OTA updates to disguise battery degradation & evade warranty obligations. Thanks to @PlainSite for making the federal court complaint readily available.
1/ The last time Elon Musk faced a defamation claim, he richly deserved to lose. He smeared a true hero, Vernon Unsworth, calling him a pedophile. Some might suspect projection on Musk's part...
2/ Unfortunately, Unsworth hired L. Lin Wood (I'm now blocked by Wood, but his Twitter handle is @LLinWood).
The choice was not illogical. Wood had settled many high-profile defamation cases, though it appeared he tried few, if any.
3/ Wood's work in pretrial briefing and discovery was impressive. He survived various efforts to dismiss the case, and developed a powerful body of evidence for trial.