Weekly French Covid thread.
Moment of truth for Macron when he addresses the nation at 8pm tonight (for 1st time since he announced a 2nd lockdown on 28 Oct). Will he abandon the jumble of partial, regional lockdowns and go for full “confinement” as UK variant runs riot? 1/12
Moment of truth for Macron when he addresses the nation at 8pm tonight (for 1st time since he announced a 2nd lockdown on 28 Oct). Will he abandon the jumble of partial, regional lockdowns and go for full “confinement” as UK variant runs riot? 1/12
The figures are grim – worse than the start of Oct lockdown (see chart by @nicolasberrod). The IC population is 5,072 - and 3,036 then. But stats are regionally mixed. Parts of Paris area have an incidence rate of over 1,000. Other places are fine. 2/12
https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1377161560112521219
Macron has been determined since May to keep schools open. Can he continue to do so, when many schools are having to close as Covid cases break out? In greater Paris the overall incidence rate is 644 (cases per 1,000 pop over 7 days) Among 15-19-yr-olds it’s 850. 3/12
The scientific advice is also contradictory. Some senior doctors are warning of “triage” in ICU by mid-April (ie allowing some patients to die) unless there is full, strict lockdown. Others say this is alarmist and lockdown creates crises of its own. 4/12
My guess is Macron will close schools by bringing forward the hols. He will increase the départements (now 19) under “lockdown light”. Restrictions in those areas will be tightened. Travel between regions made harder. BUT he may go for psychological shock of full lockdown. 5/12
As I wrote in The Local yesterday, the President’s decision to refuse a pre-emptive lockdown against the UK variant on 29 Jan was v. popular. He’s been trying to find a “third way” since, without success. Time to admit failure and go for broke? 6/12
thelocal.fr/20210330/opini…
thelocal.fr/20210330/opini…
The stats for the last week are alarming. Intensive care cases have leaped from 4,651 to 5,072, the highest figure since May. IC beds are 90% occupied but Macron is likely to announce emergency measures to create several thousand more tonight. 7/12
Deaths have started to rise after falling for weeks. There were an average 347 deaths a day in last 7 days, compared to 248 last week. The running Covid total is now 95,337. The av. age of deaths, and the very sick, is said to be growing younger but there are no recent stats 8/12
The daily average of cases rose in last 7 days to 36,045, after 29,280 last week. There appeared to be a downward shift in last 3 days but last night’s figure of 30,707 was undercounted because of an admin problem. Tonight’s therefore is likely to be huge (but misleading). 9/12
Reasons to be hopeful: the French vaccine programme is now humming along. Unnoticed by much of the UK media, which still talks of a glacial or chaotic rollout in France, the daily first jabbing rate is now approaching that in Britain (which has fallen to allow 2nd jabs) 10/12
Thus…343,000 shots in France yesterday, including 273,000 first shots. Over 1m in 3 days last Wed-Fri. I expect that will be exceeded this week.
Fr. should exceed by 1m its target of 10m first shots by 15 April and hit its targets of 20m by 15 May and 30m by 15 June. 11/12
Fr. should exceed by 1m its target of 10m first shots by 15 April and hit its targets of 20m by 15 May and 30m by 15 June. 11/12
Hang in there.
12/12
12/12
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