Weekly French Covid thread
President Macron has bet his Covid policy - and his chances of re-election - on a double or quits gamble. Having refused a 3rd lock down 2 months ago, he has played for time with a “lockdown lite” covering a third of the French population of 66m 1/12
President Macron has bet his Covid policy - and his chances of re-election - on a double or quits gamble. Having refused a 3rd lock down 2 months ago, he has played for time with a “lockdown lite” covering a third of the French population of 66m 1/12
Is it a lockdown? Can it work? For many the new rules in 16 départements in Paris area, N. Normandy, N.W. France and Alpes Maritimes represent little change. Non-essential shops are closed. Exercise before curfew is unlimited. More office workers are meant to work from home. 2/12
The aim is to hold back UK variant of C19 until vaccination takes effect. In 1st week, acute cases have risen (but not soared) to 4,634, approaching the 4,919 (16 Nov) peak of the 2nd Lockdown. Cases jumped to an av. 29, 280 a day. They halved yesterday but that was a blip 3/12
Here is a graph by Nicolas Berrod of Le Parisien showing the inexorable rise of the 3rd wave of the epidemic now that UK variant represents circa 80% of Covid cases in France. His daily av. is slightly different because it covers another 7-day span. 4/12
Macron refused another full lockdown – even in the four most afflicted areas – because he feared widespread resistance and non-obedience (and probably because he was reluctant to admit his earlier refusal of a 3rd lockdown was an error). 5/12
Reasons to worry. This new “third way” – not quite a lockdown – has proved confusing in its 1st week. It relies on individual responsibility, which may be fraying at the edges (and more than edges). By April, 100% of French cases are likely to be faster-moving UK variant. 6/12
Reasons to be hopeful: Despite the problems with AstraZeneca (ie the clot scare and two-thirds reduction in EU supplies), the French vaccine programme is finally moving into a higher gear. There were 282,000 shots given yesterday, including 240,000 1st shots. 7/12
Macron said yesterday that it was time to vax “morning, noon and night”. Why not before now? Good question. But France IS now using circa 80% of doses and can’t go much faster until bigger supplies arrive. That is about to happen. Pfizer should send 8m doses in next 5 weeks. 8/12
Shots will be open to all plus-70s from this weekend. Big vaccinodromes are planned. The army will help. More AZ doses should start to reach GP’s and pharmacies.
All to the good... but some of this COULD have happened earlier. 9/12
All to the good... but some of this COULD have happened earlier. 9/12
On this week’s figures… Deaths continue to fall largely because of the successful care home vax campaign (90% of residents covered by 1 jab, 60% by 2). There were an average 248 deaths a day in the last week, compared to 267 last week. 10/12
The daily av. of cases rose to 29,280 (even with yesterday’s undercount because of an admin blip) after 25,028 last week. Intensive care occupation rose by 415 beds to 4,634 – which is around 90% of normal capacity. The hospital Covid population rose by 1,392 to 26,786. 11/12
In summary...
It’s a race against time. Vaccinations v the UK variant. The variant is winning (so far) but the vax programme is about to accelerate again.
Hang in there.
12/12
It’s a race against time. Vaccinations v the UK variant. The variant is winning (so far) but the vax programme is about to accelerate again.
Hang in there.
12/12
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