Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French vaccination thread

Good news, v good news, on the French vaccine programme. Bad news is also available, including a devastating surge of the UK Covid variant.
But it is NO LONGER TRUE to say, as much media habitually says, that Fr. vax prog is shambolic etc 1/12

Since I was one of the first to complain in boring detail about the poor vax numbers in France 2 months ago, I am delighted to be able to point to the extraordinary jab tally of the last 3 days. Over 1,000,000 doses were given in 72hrs, including 923,820 1st vaccinations. 2/12

The daily average of shots given in France for the last 3 days was 351,581. This is still a long way behind the daily peaks achieved in the UK but not so far behind the current UK daily av. of around 570,000. France should continue to improve in the weeks ahead. 3/12

Has the criticism of the French vax effort been overdone (including by me), as some suggest? Hardly. The roll-out was slow and confusing until circa mid-Feb. President Macron admitted this week that the EU/France had failed to “shoot for the stars” as the US/UK did. 4/12

But Daily Mail et al please note…
Based on official stats for doses used/received by end of Thurs, there are now NO big stocks of unused vaccines in France, not even AstraZeneca ones. At one point Fr. was using just over 50% of doses received. The present rate is 81.04%. 5/12

The AZ use rate is 68.2%, with about 900,000 doses unused on Thursday night. Something like a quarter of those were used yesterday. By my calculation the current Pfizer use rate is 86.6% and Moderna 69.1%.
The projected mass AZ rejection in France is not happening.
6/12

In other words, France’s effort is now being restrained mostly by relative shortage of supplies – and especially by AstraZeneca’s lamentable performance in providing only circa one quarter of doses it contracted to sell to the EU. Best efforts AZ? 25% of projected doses?
7/12

The EU-UK vax export row this week was portrayed by the UKG and media allies as EU “vaccine nationalism”. Worth looking at figs below: 42% of doses made in EU go abroad (many to UK). China exports 48%. India 44%. USA 0%. UK 0%. Vax nationalism? 8/12

https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282

The row is not over. The Fr. foreign min, Yves Le Drian, angered UKG on Fri by saying Britain didn’t have enough doses to provide 2nd shots. No evidence that's true but the (correctly) much vaunted UK rollout IS running into the AZ-related supply probs seen in EU from start. 9/12

Here is a foolish prediction. At some time in the next month, the daily jab rate in France will (perhaps temporarily) overtake the UK. The export row may produce a trickle of extra AZ doses. More importantly, an avalanche of Pfizer supplies is expected in the EU from April. 10/12

Crucially, the European meds agency decided on Friday that Pfizer vaxes – limited to hospitals/ vaccinodromes until now - could after all be kept in ordinary GP/pharmacy fridges for a limited period. The GP/pharmacy part of the Fr. rollout should now expand greatly. 11/12

BUT bad news to end on.

Despite all this progress France is losing the race between vaccinations and the UK variant (now at least 80% of French cases). With 40,000 cases a day in recent days, the govt is considering a full, or fuller, lockdown from the end of next week.
12/12