Ray Dalio Profile picture
31 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Every day you are faced with an infinite number of things that come at you. Let’s call them “dots.” To be effective, you need to be able to tell which dots are important and which dots are not. (1/4)
Some people go through life collecting all kinds of observations and opinions like pocket lint, instead of just keeping what they need. They have “detail anxiety,” worrying about unimportant things. (2/4)
Sometimes small things can be important—for example, that little rattle in your car’s engine could just be a loose piece of plastic or it could be a sign your timing belt is about to snap. (3/4)
The key is having the higher-level perspective to make fast and accurate judgments on what the real risks are without getting bogged down in details. (4/4)

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More from @RayDalio

29 Mar
The question that Americans have to answer is: are the principles that bind us together greater or weaker than the principles that are tearing us apart? (1/6)
Before we collectively, as a country, can decide what to do, we must try to reach an agreement on what we want most and how we should deal with each other to get it. In other words, we must see if we can agree on our most fundamental principles. (2/6)
To be a truly united United States we must reaffirm our vows on the biggest shared principles and, in pursuit of them, reaffirm our protocols for thoughtful disagreement through a process that the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
"Learning must come before deciding. Your brain stores different types of learning in your subconscious, your rote memory bank, and your habits. (1/7)
But no matter how you acquire your knowledge or where you store it, what’s most important is that what you know paints a true and rich picture of the realities that will affect your decision. (2/7)
That’s why it always pays to be radically open- minded and seek out believable others as you do your learning. Many people have emotional trouble doing this and block the learning that could help them make better decisions. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
24 Mar
I’ve systematized my study of bubbles over time into a “bubble indicator” based on six influences, which are combined into gauges. We do this for each stock that we are looking at
then these gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. This chart shows the aggregate reading derived by combining these gauges into one reading for the stock market going back to 1910.
It shows how the conditions stack up today for US equities in relation to past times. In brief, the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today for the US stock market overall.
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
As you know, I believe the American Dream of equal opportunity leading to greater productivity and rising living standards for all is largely lost and needs to be revived. (1/5)
If you want my thinking about that, the Common Good Forum shared my acceptance speech which you can see here: (2/5)
Because of that perspective, I commend Goldman Sachs for its One Million Black Women initiative which you can read about here: essence.com/news/money-car…. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
From my perspective of being 71 years old and looking back on my life, its arc, and the life arcs of others, I decided to share the picture of what those life arcs look like with my grandchildren and other loved ones to help them see what they will encounter (1/4)
and plan for how to deal with it. While not all life arcs are the same, most are pretty similar when it comes to the most important things.

I am now passing this along to you because it might help you and your loved ones. You can read about it here. (2/4)
This exercise is intended to help you put your life in perspective and to plan for the future to help you get the life you want. This perspective has helped me and many people I have shared it with, and I hope you find it helpful as well. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
Knowing what people are like is the best indicator of how well they are likely to handle their responsibilities in the future. At Bridgewater, we call this "paying more attention to the swing than the shot." (1/4)
Since good and bad outcomes can arise from circumstances that might not have had anything to do with how the individual handled the situation, it is preferable to assess people based on both their reasoning and their outcomes. (2/4)
I probe their thinking in a very frank way so as not to let them off the hook. Doing this has taught me a lot about how to assess others' logic, and how to have better logic myself. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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