Comment on Hospital Capacity:

During much of this pandemic the capacity of hospitals has been a factor in outbreak response. How does increasing hospital capacity affect the response?

1/
If a society decides to implement restrictions when hospital is overloaded what are the consequences of that?



Later response leads to more cases and more fatalities. So it is clear that the larger the hospital capacity the worse the outbreak response in terms of health.

2/
Since the higher the transmission rate that occurs, the more severe the restrictions must be to maintain or lower the number of cases, so economic impacts are also higher due to additional hospital capacity.

3/
Said differently: If we set the point of response to be X% of the hospital capacity, what will be the optimal value of X? 0%.

Said differently: Hospital medical treatment is not the best solution to the pandemic, community prevention of transmission is.

4/
Note: this analysis applies when the number of cases allowed to occur is based upon hospital capacity.

If the cases have already occurred, then increasing the capacity to treat them reduces fatality rates.

5/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

2 Apr
New Updates (03/30) of our rough projections for
CA, FL, AZ, GA, MI, MA, PA, IN, NC, TX, LA.

They are continuing to track with new week of data.

Side by side figures for 03/23 and 03/30:

CA now at minimum
FL beginning to go up (last week at minimum)

1/ ImageImageImageImage
AZ and GA also starting to go up.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
MI rapid increase is continuing as projected. Note the axis had to be extended upwards (previous scale went up to 4,000, current one is up to 6,000 per day)!

MA is extending its increase. The projection suggests the slope will continue to increase.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
1 Apr
Zero Covid: 42 times fewer deaths and five times less contraction in GDP

"Paris, April 2, 2021: The Zero Covid strategy is by far the most effective way to fight the current pandemic.

/1
"In an original analysis released today, the Institut économique Molinari compares the G10 countries to three OECD countries that have implemented an elimination strategy (Australia and New Zealand) or something similar (South Korea).

2/
"After a Covid-19 fight lasting more than 12 months, the data show the value of the elimination strategy and contradict the idea, that it was necessary to choose between protecting the economy and protecting public health on the grounds that these two goals were in conflict.

3/
Read 13 tweets
1 Apr
Comment on the Infection Fatality Rate:

During much of this pandemic articles have been written about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). However, for diseases where multiple infections are possible, the single infection fatality rate is not an indicator of fatality...

1/
..rates because deaths accumulate from multiple infections of an individual.

The reasons that multiple infections may occur even though there is a standard model of immunity after infection are:

2/
(1) the disease is defeated by the innate rather than the adaptive immune system so no change in the immune capability arises from the infection

(2) mutations of the virus occur that reduce the effectiveness of immunity

(3) decay of memory of the adaptive immune system

3/
Read 6 tweets
30 Mar
Bhutan vaccinated 35.6% of its population in 13 days (with at least one dose).

(This had been planned for a while, as they accumulated a stockpile of doses, and awaited an auspicious time to deploy them:
)

1/
Per-capita, Bhutan has had 1/100 as many Covid cases as the US, and 1/1,000 as many deaths.

2/
Bhutan may end up being the first country to both sustain zero-Covid from the beginning, as well as reach sufficient vaccination that they are likely to keep it out permanently. (At least, with the original variant.) Congratulations, Bhutan!

3/
Read 12 tweets
29 Mar
Good news:

No COVID-19 death in London on one day - for second time this year

1/

bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
data.london.gov.uk/dataset/corona…
Hungary:

First in vaccinations and deaths in EU. 3rd-worst deaths per capita globally. Relaxing restrictions for economic reasons increased cases and deaths despite vaccinations.

Officials: "vaccination is our primary, our only means of defense”

2/

usnews.com/news/health-ne…
US's Fauci, "When you're coming down from a big peak and you reach a point and start to plateau, once you stay at that plateau, you're really in danger of a surge coming up, and unfortunately, that's what we're starting to see."
cbsnews.com/news/new-covid…

Read 4 tweets
27 Mar
Taiwan, with quarantines for all arrivals, is launching a first quarantine-free "travel bubble" April 1, with the nation of Palau. Travelers will be able to visit both countries for up to eight days.

1/
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4153190
Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. will fly to Taiwan tomorrow, March 28, to kick off the program.

Taiwan has been in conversations on similar "bubbles" with other countries, including Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam, since late last year.

2/

travelandleisure.com/travel-news/ta…
On March 18, Taiwan announced that Singapore could be the next country it pursues such a bubble with.

3/

taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4147742

mothership.sg/2021/03/singap…
Read 15 tweets

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