Bhutan vaccinated 35.6% of its population in 13 days (with at least one dose).

(This had been planned for a while, as they accumulated a stockpile of doses, and awaited an auspicious time to deploy them:
)

1/
Per-capita, Bhutan has had 1/100 as many Covid cases as the US, and 1/1,000 as many deaths.

2/
Bhutan may end up being the first country to both sustain zero-Covid from the beginning, as well as reach sufficient vaccination that they are likely to keep it out permanently. (At least, with the original variant.) Congratulations, Bhutan!

3/
President Surangel Whipps, Jr. of Palau arrived in Taiwan to open the travel bubble (the first foreign dignitary to visit Taiwan since the beginning of the pandemic)

4/
"Taiwanese health authorities had calculated that the chance of Covid-19 reaching Palau via the travel bubble was one in four million."

5/
"We feel that we can now tango. We can work together and feel safe. We trust each other... There is no guarantee that there won't be any Covid. There is no guarantee. However we've done everything to prepare ourselves."

6/
A one-in-four-million chance of Covid entering their country: that was the threshold at which they felt safe enough to allow travel -- even in light of economic struggle, in a nation “which before the pandemic relied on tourism for more than half its gross domestic product.”

7/
It is safe to say that if the rest of the world knew how to price the risk of Covid outbreaks, as Palau exemplifies, we could get to a far better economy quite soon.

8/
Florida may have under-reported Covid deaths by almost 5,000 from March until September of last year.



9/
“Our results suggest that Florida experienced 19 241 (15.5%) excess deaths from March to Sept 2020, including 14 317 COVID-19 deaths and an additional 4924 all-cause, excluding COVID-19, deaths”

10/

ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
[Thanks @geekblake for helping with today's update.]

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More from @yaneerbaryam

1 Apr
Zero Covid: 42 times fewer deaths and five times less contraction in GDP

"Paris, April 2, 2021: The Zero Covid strategy is by far the most effective way to fight the current pandemic.

/1
"In an original analysis released today, the Institut économique Molinari compares the G10 countries to three OECD countries that have implemented an elimination strategy (Australia and New Zealand) or something similar (South Korea).

2/
"After a Covid-19 fight lasting more than 12 months, the data show the value of the elimination strategy and contradict the idea, that it was necessary to choose between protecting the economy and protecting public health on the grounds that these two goals were in conflict.

3/
Read 7 tweets
1 Apr
Comment on the Infection Fatality Rate:

During much of this pandemic articles have been written about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). However, for diseases where multiple infections are possible, the single infection fatality rate is not an indicator of fatality...

1/
..rates because deaths accumulate from multiple infections of an individual.

The reasons that multiple infections may occur even though there is a standard model of immunity after infection are:

2/
(1) the disease is defeated by the innate rather than the adaptive immune system so no change in the immune capability arises from the infection

(2) mutations of the virus occur that reduce the effectiveness of immunity

(3) decay of memory of the adaptive immune system

3/
Read 6 tweets
1 Apr
Comment on Hospital Capacity:

During much of this pandemic the capacity of hospitals has been a factor in outbreak response. How does increasing hospital capacity affect the response?

1/
If a society decides to implement restrictions when hospital is overloaded what are the consequences of that?



Later response leads to more cases and more fatalities. So it is clear that the larger the hospital capacity the worse the outbreak response in terms of health.

2/
Since the higher the transmission rate that occurs, the more severe the restrictions must be to maintain or lower the number of cases, so economic impacts are also higher due to additional hospital capacity.

3/
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Good news:

No COVID-19 death in London on one day - for second time this year

1/

bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
data.london.gov.uk/dataset/corona…
Hungary:

First in vaccinations and deaths in EU. 3rd-worst deaths per capita globally. Relaxing restrictions for economic reasons increased cases and deaths despite vaccinations.

Officials: "vaccination is our primary, our only means of defense”

2/

usnews.com/news/health-ne…
US's Fauci, "When you're coming down from a big peak and you reach a point and start to plateau, once you stay at that plateau, you're really in danger of a surge coming up, and unfortunately, that's what we're starting to see."
cbsnews.com/news/new-covid…

Read 4 tweets
27 Mar
Taiwan, with quarantines for all arrivals, is launching a first quarantine-free "travel bubble" April 1, with the nation of Palau. Travelers will be able to visit both countries for up to eight days.

1/
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4153190
Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. will fly to Taiwan tomorrow, March 28, to kick off the program.

Taiwan has been in conversations on similar "bubbles" with other countries, including Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam, since late last year.

2/

travelandleisure.com/travel-news/ta…
On March 18, Taiwan announced that Singapore could be the next country it pursues such a bubble with.

3/

taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4147742

mothership.sg/2021/03/singap…
Read 15 tweets
27 Mar
We Could Have Been Largely Free of the Pandemic by Now

We've blown it again.

via @TheTyee

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"Seven weeks ago, channelling a number of renowned experts, I warned many parts of Canada would experience a third wave if leaders didn’t get off their collective asses and change their failing strategy of yo-yo closures and openings with no regard for exponential growth.

2/
"Instead I recommended a no-nonsense elimination strategy — the Canadian Shield — with clear targets for reducing transmission devised by a collection of Canadian experts with the goal of banishing this multi-organ disease from our borders.

3/
Read 27 tweets

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