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Original Braila Profile picture
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2 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
A TW quote on container NB going crazy
New wide-beam panamaxes between 5,5k teu and 7k teu, as they are flexible to trade The ­NBs will also be used to replace existing 4,250-teu ships
“The old panamax boxships were built more than 15 years ago and they are not fuel-efficient
Twitter investors with 15y old panamax container ships told that they would do super profits until 30y old...
$DAC has basically said they will not do large divs as they have to fix their old ECO fleet, invest current profits in it to improve ECO features. Lots of dry dock, lots of costs. $NMM, well we all know that they are incentivized to buy ships, not do divs. Flawed alignment.
All the Liner companies and their dogs are buying container ships by the dozens.

When that is Twitter presented as: "Look how optimistic they are, must be GREAT times ahead for our clunkers"

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More from @OriginalBraila

Original Braila Profile picture
3 Apr
Going back 10m or so my idea was that I wanted to own #2020Bulkers for the post covid world wide stimulus benefitting iron ore & steel, my guess was that Q2 2021 was the time for cape rates to strengthen. The stock has already doubled incl divs as it traded so much below NAV then
My other even larger holding was $OET with the thought rates would strengthen in Q4 2021 on a revival of flying. I also expected the ECO advantage to increase with higher oilprice and the fuel spread to widen with less plane fuel blendstock available. After large divs my $OET
cost is below 50nok so at least a 50% gain.

Its been a generally good shipping market in Q1 2021, for me almost 60% on the portfolio. But I think it is also fair to make the point again that markets are forward looking.
Read 7 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
1 Apr
If all main quality yards for large ships are full with mainly container orders until end of 2023. What capacity is left? I am no expert but this is how I understand it:
1. More large containers and bulkers can be built at 2nd tier yards as these are not that complicated ships.
2. We are NOT talking about yards filling up for smaller ships and I need to learn more about where the size limits are Now thinking Smax, VL, Capes, 10kTEU LNG VLGCetc as large impacted by the situation
3. Besides size there is the issue of some ship types being more complicated
Meaning it is only those top tier yards that now are full until end of 2023 that build them. The interesting stuff is that these are also the only yards that can build LNG ships and have the huge 160 ship order from Qatar 2023-2026 build time.
Read 5 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
30 Mar
Putting the pieces together:
1. Quality yards sold out until end of 2023 on container orders.
2. Those same yards probably then sold out for years AFTER that by Qatar LNG order.
tradewindsnews.com/gas/details-em…
Qatar order is not news, we always knew it was coming in a couple of years.
Havent read the numbers in the article but it sure looks to me like there will be very limited space for stuff like VLCC Smax, Aframaxes LR2, VLGC between now and say 2026
"All we need now"is current demand supply to move into deficit. Watch rates closely for clues & dont be late
I often read @JamesCatlin76 articles multiple times. Make sure you have read this one from last year.

seekingalpha.com/article/437429…
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
28 Mar
Container leasing companies like $DAC $GSL $NMM etc will bring a whole new dimension to the expression boom bust cycle I think.The up is extraordinary high and so is also likely the despair. To be honest with a whole new generation of ECOs built I wonder if they will ever recover
But first we have the boom cycle to fully play out. Including ships stuck.

The problem their is that so many of the leasing companies already have their vessels chartered out by now.
When it comes to ongoing newbuilds. My thinking is that whoever has a tanker on order gets a question if they mind delaying part of the order 6m or so... to give priority to get large amounts of container ships on the water asap. I would guess that is an attractive proposal.
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
26 Feb
Second Lundin play on copper is this company: MCAP 206 musd. filo-mining.com and on the border of San Juan province Argentina & Chile, only 12 km from the sister company. Dual listed in the same way.
Presentation: filo-mining.com/assets/docs/pr…
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
26 Feb
The thelundingroup.com simply delivers. They always have

The other day I listened to them talk about Copper at the Pareto conf (Lundin panel basically...) and how they have positioned themselves with their companies. Since I know their track record, that influenced me a lot
The surprise was to find how they have put together not one but three huge copper projects of the type that is likely to end up with the majors.

There are very few of these projects and my surprise was when I looked how mature they were vs the MCAPs

They actually looked cheap
This is not "we hope to find" or "we are sorry but we have not 43-101 but trust us". This is serial success people and done 100% by the book, resources and reserves in place, ready to go. As is their signum the projects are huge and in semi hairy juristictions.
Read 4 tweets

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