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Original Braila Profile picture
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30 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Putting the pieces together:
1. Quality yards sold out until end of 2023 on container orders.
2. Those same yards probably then sold out for years AFTER that by Qatar LNG order.
tradewindsnews.com/gas/details-em…
Qatar order is not news, we always knew it was coming in a couple of years.
Havent read the numbers in the article but it sure looks to me like there will be very limited space for stuff like VLCC Smax, Aframaxes LR2, VLGC between now and say 2026
"All we need now"is current demand supply to move into deficit. Watch rates closely for clues & dont be late
I often read @JamesCatlin76 articles multiple times. Make sure you have read this one from last year.

seekingalpha.com/article/437429…
Exp on rates: Rate changes in shipping are key tools for me. Observed rising rates for example due to a minor disruption often mean a market is close to Equilibrium and hence ready to take off if given another push, for example due to (coming) seasonality.

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More from @OriginalBraila

Original Braila Profile picture
28 Mar
Container leasing companies like $DAC $GSL $NMM etc will bring a whole new dimension to the expression boom bust cycle I think.The up is extraordinary high and so is also likely the despair. To be honest with a whole new generation of ECOs built I wonder if they will ever recover
But first we have the boom cycle to fully play out. Including ships stuck.

The problem their is that so many of the leasing companies already have their vessels chartered out by now.
When it comes to ongoing newbuilds. My thinking is that whoever has a tanker on order gets a question if they mind delaying part of the order 6m or so... to give priority to get large amounts of container ships on the water asap. I would guess that is an attractive proposal.
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
26 Feb
Second Lundin play on copper is this company: MCAP 206 musd. filo-mining.com and on the border of San Juan province Argentina & Chile, only 12 km from the sister company. Dual listed in the same way.
Presentation: filo-mining.com/assets/docs/pr…
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
26 Feb
The thelundingroup.com simply delivers. They always have

The other day I listened to them talk about Copper at the Pareto conf (Lundin panel basically...) and how they have positioned themselves with their companies. Since I know their track record, that influenced me a lot
The surprise was to find how they have put together not one but three huge copper projects of the type that is likely to end up with the majors.

There are very few of these projects and my surprise was when I looked how mature they were vs the MCAPs

They actually looked cheap
This is not "we hope to find" or "we are sorry but we have not 43-101 but trust us". This is serial success people and done 100% by the book, resources and reserves in place, ready to go. As is their signum the projects are huge and in semi hairy juristictions.
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
25 Feb
Yes, it is time to increase my focus on my old sector, mining again, and apply the knowledge I still have after doing that sector for 10y before moving to shipping. Mining was up and down for me but from start to end I made 10x in my main portfolio.
What I will do is to focus on historically great managements. The more proven the better. Then I will choose "acceptable" juristictions and very large projects as the permitting risk is the same for large and small This slide from the other day ranks juristictions incl provinces
Shipping will still be like 80-90% for me but really, right now the sector is on autopilot towards the ECO & Carbon theme and all I have to do really is sit on $OET and #2020bulkers and let those play out 2021-2023 or perhaps even longer as carbon bites the non ECOs.
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
18 Feb
I want to give @mintzmyer cred for what he has done lately. He has always been incredibly hardworking and VIE research very useful to me. Lately he has been better than good. I am long $ZIM with a lowest buy of 11.40 and the highest of 16.50. Did a lot of research on it early
but kept quiet about it. This was a @mintzmyer VIE original idea that I fortunately grasped and researched basically from the moment it crashed to its crazy low immediately post the IPO. Did I flip it yesterday on the VIE article going public? No, the only thing wrong with the
article is the "20-30 usd" imo (and probably J's too?) It was very likely a consequence strictly of the low price at the time of the crash. I would expect much higher targets as the multiple broker analysts come out with their targets. Saw Fearnleys talk about 40 usd (not rated)
Read 4 tweets
Original Braila Profile picture
30 Nov 20
Let's sort it out:
Scrubber vs ECO vs Size. The $OET & #2020Bulkers advantages and... are there risks to scrubbers from politicians? What would that mean?
1. ECO is about ships using less fuel due to propulsion and general features. That also means less CO2, carbon emissions.
2. Scrubbers is not so much about CO2, only removes like 2%. It is all about cleaning sulphur or the black smoke. The controversy is about putting that into the ocean. The argument for is -a silly low addition vs all the sulphur in the ocean & that sulphur is an airproblem only.
Looking at the current situation scrubbers are an economic failure for all that did retrofits but those that installed when the ships were built got it cheaper and with no offhire time. Being ECO is important, being larger ships is important, being modern is important=premium pay
Read 7 tweets

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