Want to tweet more good news about hospitalizations in US and effect of vaccines. Data source here. I am sad today. Every time you are given some good news (vaccines stop transmission; T cells work against variants), someone tries to frighten you again. healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…
Okay so remember I told you that there was an "inflection point" in Israel at which cases started coming down with a certain rate of vaccination? And of course hospitalizations were not occurring in those vaccinated. So, let's look at U.S. and compare
3/31/21 vs. 2/24/21:
In the last 7 Day Cases reduced by -4%
Last 7 Day Hospital Admissions reduced by -24%
U.S. Total Inpatient Hospital Beds reduced by -39%
U.S. Total ICU Hospital Beds reduced by -43%
(All data broken down, below by age- it's crazy how well the vaccines work)
Total -- 3/31/21 -- 34.4k, 2/24/21 -- 45.0k -- Reduction of 10.6k or -24%
70+ -- 3/31/21 -- 9.9k, 2/24/21 -- 17.0k -- Reduction of 7.1k or -42%
60-69 -- 3/31/21 -- 7.1k, 2/24/21 -- 9.3k -- Reduction of 2.2k or -24%
50-59 - 3/31/21 --6.4k, 2/24/21 - 6.7k - Reduction of 0.3k or -4%
40-49 -- 3/31/21 -- 3.9k, 2/24/21 -- 4.0k -- Reduction of 0.1k or -3%
30-39 -- 3/31/21 -- 3.0k, 2/24/21 -- 2.9k -- Increase of 0.1k or +3%
18-29 -- 3/31/21 -- 2.1k, 2/24/21 -- 2.2k -- Reduction of 0.1k or -6%
Isn't that crazy? Do you see how monotonic that decrease is by age?
If you get the vaccine, hospitalizations plummet in that age group (older vaccinated first).
U.S. Total for Inpatient Hospital Beds for COVID on 3/31/21 is 33,972 -- 5% of inpatient hospitalizations (Light Green Zone); U.S. Total for ICU Hospital Beds for COVID on 3/31/21 8,290
so10% of ICU hospitalizations (Yellow Zone)
U.S Total for Inpatient Hospital Beds for COVID on 2/24/21 was 55,263 -- 8% of inpatient hospitalizations (Yellow Zone)
U.S. Total for ICU Hospital Beds for COVID on 2/24/21 was 14,526 -- 16% of ICU hospitalizations (Light Red)
Hospitalizations- isn't that a plummet?
U.S. Total Inpatient Hospital Beds for COVID reduced by 21,291 or -39%. since 2/24/21
U.S. Total for ICU Hospital Beds for COVID reduced by 6,236 or -43% since 2/42/21
Cases?
U.S. Total Last 7 Day Cases on 3/31/21 442,935 or 133 per 100k.
(Light Red), Positivity Rate was 4.9% (Light Green)
U.S. Total Last 7 Day Cases on 2/24/21 was 461,282 or 139 per 100k. (Light Red), Positivity Rate was 5.3% (Yellow).
Bottom line: Cases have been reduced by 18,347 or -4% on a per Last 7 Day basis between 2/24/21 and 3/31/21.
Look at data carefully; do your own analyses if needed; and see what is happening. Exactly what happened in other countries were vaccinations moved faster than here. Those vaccinated no longer susceptible to severe disease; it will all be okay I promise.
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Still trying figure out that "inflection" point where vaccines given out enough to population that cases decrease (again, irrespective of lockdown in a way, right, because nursing homes very locked down in US & cases plummeted after vaccine roll-out reached certain threshold)
This article in Nature from very early on in the Israel roll-out (they were far & away ahead of us by then though), says "You need to vaccinate much more than a third of the population to really see a reduction in transmission" nature.com/articles/d4158…
US is right now at 31.4% first dose, 18% fully vaccinated per CDC vaccine tracker but that of course wildly fluctuates per county & state since our public health system is so local-based (federal responses work better in pandemics but not how US built) covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
I have idea that could decrease cases right now in states that have increasing cases, which is to switch to giving out the 1st dose now & wait on 2nd dose to immediately expand number vaccinated in each of those states now. Let me explain: map of US cases nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Here is the WaPo tracking site on vaccination rates by county. 4 reasons for giving 1st dose now in those counties & waiting on 2nd are 1) "Based on immunologic principles, sensitization with single doses would still allow boosting with a 2nd dose washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…
several months later" (please see great Dr. Plotkin article). 2) "B-cell memory after mRNA vaccination has been clearly demonstrated, which supports the idea that antibodies will be boosted by a second mRNA dose given months later" (remember B cell paper) academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
4th surge in California unlikely to happen because of 1) our natural immunity with likely more than 30% of naturally infected given this seroprevalence study + 2) our rate of vaccination is high and going well (more than national average) sfchronicle.com/health/article…
In fact, 31.4% of Californians have received a first dose This is why I think Gov Newsom will lift state mask mandate by its 1-year anniversary (June 18) since that is the best time to lift a mask mandate- when everyone who wants vax fully vaccinated latimes.com/projects/calif…
So, in response to that, state has opened up more events like sports, indoor concerts, etc. in response & based on very low cases in California, seems very reasonable to me. sfchronicle.com/local/article/…
Michigan - let's look closely at their data here. Look at hospitalizations by age. Currently, COVID hospitalizations are less than the 2018-2019 Flu Season, especially telling in the 65+ Age Bracket gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet…
COVID-Net -- MMWR Week 11 -week of 3/20/21
Overall -- 8.0 per 100k
18-49 -- 4.3 per 100k
50-64 -- 11.0 per 100k
65+ -- 22.8 per 100k
2018-2019 Flu Season- MMWR Week 11 -week of 3/16/19
Overall -- 8.3 per 100k
18-49 -- 2.6 per 100k
50-64 -- 14.7 per 100k
65+ -- 23.5 per 100k
Michigan hospitalizations from COVID-19 now mimicking those from flu two years ago represents "defanging of the virus" with vaccines among older. Would recommend faster vax:
Here were the cumulative vax rates as of March 27, 2021 from the WaPo Vax County Tracking Map:
Wanted to put all real-world effectiveness data for you on the vaccines together in a thread with slides so you can see where we are in the world- have come long way from our clinical trial data table with all of this real-world date.
Data from Israel Ministry of Health released by Pfizer press release on March 11, 2021
If I may cheat on the T cell for a moment and tell you about memory B cells and how excellent they are, I would appreciate it if no one told my T cells. Memory B cells also form part of the adaptive immune system; they develop after an infection, go and hide out in your "germinal
centers" (like your lymph nodes) and then they quietly sit there and also quietly circulate for a very long time but are able to be stimulated to produce active antibodies if they see that infection again. One of my favorite papers ever took a cohort of 32 nature.com/articles/natur…
people born before 1915 who had been exposed to 1918 flu. Nearly 90 years later (this paper published in 2008), they found circulating B cells that could generate potent neutralizing antibodies to the 1918 strain of flu (by the way, the influenza virus mutates WAY faster than