Michigan - let's look closely at their data here. Look at hospitalizations by age. Currently, COVID hospitalizations are less than the 2018-2019 Flu Season, especially telling in the 65+ Age Bracket gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet…
COVID-Net -- MMWR Week 11 -week of 3/20/21
Overall -- 8.0 per 100k
18-49 -- 4.3 per 100k
50-64 -- 11.0 per 100k
65+ -- 22.8 per 100k
2018-2019 Flu Season- MMWR Week 11 -week of 3/16/19
Overall -- 8.3 per 100k
18-49 -- 2.6 per 100k
50-64 -- 14.7 per 100k
65+ -- 23.5 per 100k
Michigan hospitalizations from COVID-19 now mimicking those from flu two years ago represents "defanging of the virus" with vaccines among older. Would recommend faster vax:
Here were the cumulative vax rates as of March 27, 2021 from the WaPo Vax County Tracking Map:
Wayne County, MI (Detroit):
Total Vaxxed -- 12.0%, MI 15.0%, U.S. 14.7%
18+ -- 15.7%, MI 19.1%, U.S. 18.8%
65+ -- 38.8%, MI 45.9%, U.S. 45.9%
St. Clair, MI (Port Huron):
Total Vaxxed -- 10.7%, MI 15.0%, U.S. 14.7%
18+ -13.4%, MI 19.1%, U.S. 18.8%
65+ -30.0%, MI 45.9%, U.S. 45.9%
Lapeer County, MI (Flint):
Total Vaxxed -- 10.3%, MI 15.0%, U.S. 14.7%
18+ -- 13.0%, MI 19.1%, U.S. 18.8%
65+ -- 31.2%, MI 45.9%, U.S. 45.9%
Genesee County, MI (Flint):
Total Vaxxed -- 12.7%, MI 15.0%, U.S. 14.7%
18+ - 16.4%, MI 19.1%, U.S. 18.8%
65+ - 41.0%, MI 45.9%, U.S. 45.9%
Here is where your county stands in terms of vaccination. Just talked to MD friend in Michigan, hospitalizations among young & unvaccinated. Let's go faster washingtonpost.com/graphics/2021/…
By the way, since I got some tweets, NO ONE is saying stop with #covid19 vaccination when hospitalizations mirror flu. We have such effective vaccines keep on going and going until you take out every tooth of this virus; I was just pointing out the defanging has started!
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Still trying figure out that "inflection" point where vaccines given out enough to population that cases decrease (again, irrespective of lockdown in a way, right, because nursing homes very locked down in US & cases plummeted after vaccine roll-out reached certain threshold)
This article in Nature from very early on in the Israel roll-out (they were far & away ahead of us by then though), says "You need to vaccinate much more than a third of the population to really see a reduction in transmission" nature.com/articles/d4158…
US is right now at 31.4% first dose, 18% fully vaccinated per CDC vaccine tracker but that of course wildly fluctuates per county & state since our public health system is so local-based (federal responses work better in pandemics but not how US built) covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
I have idea that could decrease cases right now in states that have increasing cases, which is to switch to giving out the 1st dose now & wait on 2nd dose to immediately expand number vaccinated in each of those states now. Let me explain: map of US cases nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Here is the WaPo tracking site on vaccination rates by county. 4 reasons for giving 1st dose now in those counties & waiting on 2nd are 1) "Based on immunologic principles, sensitization with single doses would still allow boosting with a 2nd dose washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…
several months later" (please see great Dr. Plotkin article). 2) "B-cell memory after mRNA vaccination has been clearly demonstrated, which supports the idea that antibodies will be boosted by a second mRNA dose given months later" (remember B cell paper) academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
4th surge in California unlikely to happen because of 1) our natural immunity with likely more than 30% of naturally infected given this seroprevalence study + 2) our rate of vaccination is high and going well (more than national average) sfchronicle.com/health/article…
In fact, 31.4% of Californians have received a first dose This is why I think Gov Newsom will lift state mask mandate by its 1-year anniversary (June 18) since that is the best time to lift a mask mandate- when everyone who wants vax fully vaccinated latimes.com/projects/calif…
So, in response to that, state has opened up more events like sports, indoor concerts, etc. in response & based on very low cases in California, seems very reasonable to me. sfchronicle.com/local/article/…
Want to tweet more good news about hospitalizations in US and effect of vaccines. Data source here. I am sad today. Every time you are given some good news (vaccines stop transmission; T cells work against variants), someone tries to frighten you again. healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…
Okay so remember I told you that there was an "inflection point" in Israel at which cases started coming down with a certain rate of vaccination? And of course hospitalizations were not occurring in those vaccinated. So, let's look at U.S. and compare
3/31/21 vs. 2/24/21:
In the last 7 Day Cases reduced by -4%
Last 7 Day Hospital Admissions reduced by -24%
U.S. Total Inpatient Hospital Beds reduced by -39%
U.S. Total ICU Hospital Beds reduced by -43%
(All data broken down, below by age- it's crazy how well the vaccines work)
Wanted to put all real-world effectiveness data for you on the vaccines together in a thread with slides so you can see where we are in the world- have come long way from our clinical trial data table with all of this real-world date.
Data from Israel Ministry of Health released by Pfizer press release on March 11, 2021
If I may cheat on the T cell for a moment and tell you about memory B cells and how excellent they are, I would appreciate it if no one told my T cells. Memory B cells also form part of the adaptive immune system; they develop after an infection, go and hide out in your "germinal
centers" (like your lymph nodes) and then they quietly sit there and also quietly circulate for a very long time but are able to be stimulated to produce active antibodies if they see that infection again. One of my favorite papers ever took a cohort of 32 nature.com/articles/natur…
people born before 1915 who had been exposed to 1918 flu. Nearly 90 years later (this paper published in 2008), they found circulating B cells that could generate potent neutralizing antibodies to the 1918 strain of flu (by the way, the influenza virus mutates WAY faster than