Thread by @timwalker919

It is not hindsight to say that to keep open the best available means of escape, supply the increasing number of internally displaced people with aid, and to prevent hijackings of vessels around the Afungi peninsula is to gain and keep control of the coast and adjacent waters

https://twitter.com/News24/status/1377863533296291845

@KellyBMoss had great foresight last year - warning that the lack of control and vulnerability of islands and littoral waters surrendered the initiative to the insurgents and gave them strategic options they should never even be allowed to consider stableseas.org/maritime-terro…

@KellyBMoss and @Jasminechic00 went on to consider the implications of the government losing control over the Cabo Delgado coastal area. I do recommend you watch and listen to what they had to say.

issafrica.org/media-resource…

Maritime security can’t guarantee results alone. But it can sever a lifeline that armed groups depend on and complement resolution measures on land. @IselZyl and @JTylerLycan showed how East African terror groups are exploiting the seas issafrica.org/iss-today/east…

A great observation of theirs was counter-terrorism operations lack a mandate to act on ‘robberies at sea’ carried out by violent extremists - this is very pertinent for responding to armed robbery and hijackings off the Cabo Delgado coast.

Mozambique and South Africa (and thus SADC) did not suffer this disadvantage – provisions of their 2011 memorandum of understanding permit combined maritime operations in territorial waters to combat any illegal activities that undermine their security issafrica.org/iss-today/mari…

Reports of vessels being hijacked in Mozambique waters mean these South African naval vessels should be preparing to deploy as part Operation Copper. These pics in Simonstown were taken a few days ago. Are they still there?

The reason I ask is because continued regional inertia and deadlock is no longer an option for an international community increasingly clamouring to mount some sort of intervention.

The @issafrica Southern African Team acknowledged that lack of a concrete plan is symptomatic of Mozambique’s resistance to any kind of external support that may lead to multilateral foreign intervention in the country. issafrica.org/iss-today/terr…

They paid attention to the conundrum @SADC_News faces - "On the one hand, it must respond to the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Mozambique, which it condemns as terrorism. On the other, it seeks to protect Mozambique’s sovereignty and won’t intervene unless asked to..."

@SADC_News A segurança a longo prazo na África Austral depende do êxito da ação coletiva
This is no longer a crisis that one country can solve alone.

I suggest keeping an eye on how @eni now reacts. They took the seemingly prudent step of ensuring their operations off the Cabo Delgado coast are also totally offshore. The vessel they have been building - the Coral Sul - is huge
eni.com/en-IT/operatio…

Another massive vessel - the Saipem 12000 - also apparently resumed drilling recently

saipem.com/en/identity-an…

These would arguably appear to be Mozambiques last option for generating revenue from liquefying natural gas in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Are they now at risk given the reports of vessels being hijacked near to the Afungi peninsula?

@threadreaderapp unroll