I think it's good policy to lay down predictions, and takes guts. I could be wrong but while a 4th wave appears to be starting in the US, I think it will be short-lived, & quite modest compared to December, particularly in terms of deaths.
https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1378016852622868484
Cases might go up a bit more, but it will turn into, at worst, a "case-demic". The US is likely to have over 150million people at least partially vaccinated by the end of April. And the vaccines appear to work on the variants. Plus better weather provides a modest headwind.
Something more needs to be done for vaccine hesitancy, but I'm hopeful. Recall it was predicted that the variants would cause a spike in cases months ago already, and it didn't happen. US vaxxes r actually not that far behind even Israel, and Covid is in rapid decline there.
And, the most likely way I could be wrong here is if (1) an altogether new variant emerges that can really evade the vaccine, or (2) a current variant in fact evades the mRNA vaccines (current data says not). Chile is worrisome but they are mostly using the Chinese vaccines.
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