Thread by @TradeandMoney

Re: Pfizer vaccine. It's clear something big happens around day 11. Nothing of import happens around day 32. #firstdosesfirst

Pfizer does a ridiculous time split when they look at one shot vs. two. First, there's no statistically significant difference in the first 7 days after the 2nd shot. Had they used an 11 day cut-off instead, one shot would clearly have won.

And, one shot would also likely have won had they looked within a 7 day window in either direction of shot #2.

@AlbertBourla please explain;) Can't you just publish the full data so we can have a community review? Full article here. (Otherwise, you and Pfizer are well-deserving of huge props for creating this vaccine.) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… @

Update on this: If you look at treated vs. control in first 11 days after 2nd dose, you have 2 in treatment vs. 31 in control (where I've extrapolated control), and around 94% effectiveness. Which is a touch less effective than after but very close.

Would you believe it, the Moderna vaccine is more effective the 28 days prior to its pre-registered start count date than it is after. 96.4% for days 15-42 vs. 94.4% after day 42. #FirstDosesFirst?
@EricTopol

@nataliexdean

@Dereklowe

Obviously, those differences aren't significant, but the point remains, there is no sign in the data for Moderna or Pfizer that the second dose changes anything. If you weren't told when the second dose was, you'd never be able to guess based on the data.

While, I don't think these companies are guilty of any malfeasance, if one shot is enough, suddenly demand for their products has just dropped by 50%.

Relevant thread here:

https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1345086686586400774

Apparently, Fauci & the Biden admin have already decided not to do first doses first. That's the wrong decision. Hate to say it, but the Biden admin shouldn't listen to Fauci.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1345080202964029442

I'm old enough to remember when the pandemic started and the US still had packed NBA arenas full of fans, and Fauci said they should only be limited out of "an abundance of caution".