Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Econtwitter

Most recents (24)

Does #COVID19 crowd out care for non COVID patients in the #NHS? Has this led to a loss of lives? Are the numbers negligible? The short answers are: yes, yes & no!
Paper ➡️ bit.ly/33XMyHB & a long🧵on how we capture non COVID19 excess deaths & much more ⬇️ 1/n Image
Lets start with a headline result: we estimate that for every 30 #COVID deaths there is at least one avoidable non COVID excess death in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitals. To arrive at this we use cool #NHS data which makes for a great #EconTwitter #econometrics #DataScience teaching example. 2/n Image
The #NHS has population individual level hospital episode data (HES) linked to death certificates. For each admitted patient, they predict P(Death|X). This is an out-of-sample prediction coming from Lasso logistic regression model trained on data from the last 3 years. 3/n Image
Read 19 tweets
Why is the Biden administration connecting inflation and antitrust? Here is a thread where I speculate a bit, using a supply/demand framework, and drawing on conversations and material previously circulated here on #EconTwitter.
It starts with a conjecture: the impetus for higher prices is an increase in demand, possible due to the American Rescue Plan and the help that it provides. In support is that the economy is seemingly strong (demand up -> higher price, higher output).
Taking this conjecture as given, upward pressure on prices could be reversed either by reducing demand (e.g., withdrawing support) or by working with supply. I suspect the administration views the first option as going backward—the economic support is a good thing.
Read 9 tweets
Here on #EconTwitter, it has recently been discussed how forecasters could have been so wrong about #inflation. A 🧵 on the drivers of inflation in #Germany (with similarities in other €-countries). 1/
While in the US, several factors seem to be at play and inflation seems to be increasingly broad based, in Germany (and most of the €-area), inflation is still relatively limited to some components. Especially, one key factor is not always fully appreciated:Natural gas prices.2/
The recent increase in natural gas prices (the border prices of which have increased by 270 % over the past year) has not been seen by analysts in advance. The reason is that much of it has to do with recent fear about supply constraints from Russia, 3/
Read 18 tweets
Join us at 10:00 EDT from the comfort of your personal conference venue when we talk about "#Reproducibility and #Transparency versus #Privacy and #Confidentiality" #ASSA2022 w/ @john_abowd, Raj+John from @OppInsights, Bruce + James aeaweb.org/conference/202…, Image
Hm. The listing of names and topics is kind of messed up in the AEA web program. I don't believe that I'm talking about "Data Privacy and Data Collection"... but join us anyway!
Hint: I'm going to argue that it's not "R+T 🤜🤛 P&C" but rather that "R+T 💕 P&C". That's the #EconTwitter version (it's short...), come and join us for the full story!
Read 4 tweets
Next up at the ASSA meetings, my paper with Lindsey Raymond:

Augmented Intelligence: Effects of AI on Productivity and Work Practices

Link:
eventpilot.us/appinfo.php?pa
#ASSA2022

Please join us!

@LindseyRRaymond @DigEconLab #EconTwitter
@LindseyRRaymond @DigEconLab Abstract
How does technology affect the organization and dissemination of knowledge in production? Production knowledge is often tacit and embodied in individual workers and managers,...

1/n
@LindseyRRaymond @DigEconLab ...and therefore technology that changes the ability to encode and disseminate knowledge, such as artificial intelligence, might affect productivity and organization of production...

2/n
Read 9 tweets
If you're registered for the ASSA meeting, there's a great presentation about AI and Labor starting now:

"Using Language Models to Understand Wage Premia"
Sarah Bana, Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Link:
eventpilot.us/appinfo.php?pa…
#ASSA2022

@SarahHBana @DigEconLab #EconTwitter
@SarahHBana @DigEconLab Using Language Models to Understand Wage Premia

Abstract
Does the text content of a job posting predict the salary offered for the role? There is ample evidence that even within an occupation, a job's skills and tasks affect the job's salary.

1/n
@SarahHBana @DigEconLab Capturing this fine-grained information from postings can provide real-time insights on prices of various job characteristics. Using a new dataset from Greenwich.HR with salary information linked to posting data from Burning Glass Technologies, ...
2/n
Read 6 tweets
While at DFID I would provide new Sec of State an "Introduction to Development". By touching on evolution of diff approaches to development I sought to explain the need for diff parts of DFID & inoculate against claims of simple fixes. Thread 1/n
Yesterday I turned that slide deck into a lecture for undergrads at @UChicago. By showing how development has fallen foul of 1 dimensional fads my aim is to explain why we will cover both macro & micro, understanding what works in improving how teachers teach & how IMF works 2/n
So with some trepidation (I am simplifying massively & miss important development approaches in my overview and nuances in those I do describe), here is the basic thrust of the argument. I am sure #econtwitter can help me improve this. Aim is to show how diff approaches link 3/n
Read 16 tweets
We need our infrastructure fixed, badly. However, all the other policies I hear about coming from Biden at a high level are mostly indefensible.

I cannot in good conscience accept the other policies as a trade off just to get the infrastructure aspects qualified.
The outcome would be terrible. We would be losing more if we did.

If anything, this exercise has proven to me that we must have open diplomacy with our world partners.

Furthermore, I am operating under the condition of what would be called a "normie".

High level info ...
some analysis, and a minimum amount of knowledge in civics.

What I have discovered is that our education system needs to be updated with accurate knowledge in Civics. #EconTwitter
Read 9 tweets
Question for #econtwitter:

When doing a diff-in-diff analysis with a Poisson-distributed outcome variable, what is the best practice for estimating the variance (ie, do you use the delta method or do you just bootstrap)?
Second question for #econtwitter:

If in the above👆🏼DiD analysis you also wanted to adjust for some known & measured endogenous covariates, would you:
a) assume homogeneity / comparative static effects?
b) make no such assumptions & average DiD estimates across covariate strata?
(paging @causalinf & friends)
Read 4 tweets
As a little Christmas present 🎁 I put together a list of my top quant marketing articles (broadly defined) of 2021.

Advertising, Pricing, COVID-19 😬 and other interesting stuff!

#MarketingTwitter #EconTwitter

Papers are listed below in no particular order ...
1) Advertising Spending and Media Bias: Evidence from News Coverage of Car Safety Recalls (Mgmt Sc) by Graham Beattie, @RDurante_2020, @briangknight, @Ananya_Sen_.

Super interesting study on how media bias & ad incentives interact.
Newspapers are less likely to cover safety recalls from brands that regularly advertise. Lots of interesting analysis that delves into the two-sided nature of the market and thinks carefully about incentives created by reader preferences and by advertisers.
Read 12 tweets
1/6 Yesterday I learned that BLS produces experimental price indexes for new vehicles, cars and trucks. Published indexes show annual inflation at ~11%, but these experimental indexes show annual rates of 19% to 21%. bls.gov/cpi/research-s… #EconTwitter
2/6 Some background: to create the CPI, the BLS combines price changes into ‘lower level’ indexes, like Chicago eggs or New York apples. A national all-items index can be formed as a weighted average of the LL indexes. The CPI-U uses weights taken from a single time period;
3/6 the chained CPI uses weights from two time periods, allowing changes in behavior. Usually these changes are responses to changes in relative prices, in which case the chained CPI shows lower inflation than the CPI-U
Read 6 tweets
Hey #econtwitter is there a common explanation behind 1) the incomparability of medical data from different EMR instances; 2) the incomparability of mattresses made by different manufacturers and sold by different retailers 3) the incompatibility of different mfg camera lenses?
Feels like the common thread may be that the opportunity to prove oneself better/ better for the cost that would arise from comparability is less appealing than the risk of being proven worse; better to hold onto market share from loyalists than risk competition.
but having a hard time seeing the medical record analogy, perhaps because it's not there. If this is something Freakonomics covered in 2017 I'd be happy for a reference.
Read 4 tweets
Es wurde hier auf #Econtwitter zuletzt immer wieder von der vermeintlichen „Effizienz“ des #CO2-Emissionshandels gesprochen. Leider hält das Argument einer genaueren empirischen Betrachtung nicht stand. Ein 🧵 1/
Ich kenne das Lehrbuch-Argument eines statischen Emissionshandels mit perfekten Märkten. Und klar, da kommt in Betrachtung ein effizientes Ergebnis heraus, weil der Emissionsabbau immer dort stattfindet, wo er am günstigsten ist. 2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Emis…
Leider hat das mit der Realität eines Emissionshandels über die Zeit, wie er etwa beim EU-ETS besteht, nichts zu tun. Hier kann man empirisch schnell erkennen, dass die Ergebnisse ineffizient sind.
Um das zu verstehen, muss man sich die intertemporale Effizienz ansehen. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Here is a list of questions I received most often during (first round) interviews, per request. Hope the list helps this year’s JMCs prep
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
🧵
Questions about the JMP:

clarifications? What’s the significance/contribution? What are the shortcomings? How would you enhance it & (implicitly) what is stopping you from doing so? What is your main policy implication?
Qs about the JMP:

Where does this fit in the literature? How does this weigh against other evidence on the topic? What would <someone else who has written on the topic> critique about your work?
Read 10 tweets
‼️ New Working Paper ‼️

Target date funds assume that investors accurately predict their future retirement. Is this true? We find that investors have biases in their estimated long-run labor participation.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Here is a summary. #econtwitter

1/n
Getting this assumption is important for future retirees -- Target-date funds manage $1.6 trillion, making up 27% of 401(k) market share Image
We investigate this using nationally representative data from nearly three decades.

It is clear that long-run estimates tend to underestimate future labor participation. Said differently, respondents work longer than they originally expected. Image
Read 7 tweets
Hier auf #Econtwitter wurde zuletzt wiederholt behauptet, ein #CO2-#Zertifikatehandel würde zur makroökonomischen Stabilisierung beitragen, weil ja die Preise in der Krise fallen und im Boom steigen.

Diese Schlussfolgerung ist leider Unsinn. Ein 🧵 1/
Natürlich stimmt es, dass die CO2-Preise im Emissionshandel in der Krise regelmäßig eingebrochen sind und danach in der Erholung gestiegen sind.

Allerdings trägt dies nicht zur makroökonomischen Stabilisierung, sondern eher zur Destabilisierung wieder. 2/
Warum ist das so?
Zunächst: Bei Energiepreisen allgemein ist die Erfahrung, dass fallende Energiepreise über höhere Kaufkraft zu mehr Nachfrage führen und damit die Wirtschaft ankurbeln.
Das liegt allerdings daran, dass Länder wie Deutschland ihr Öl und Gas überwiegend 3/
Read 16 tweets
🚨What are the long-run effects of social housing? I have a piece in @thecurrency today on my latest working paper, joint with @alandebromhead, on this question - specifically how social housing can affect the spread of the population. (1/20)

#EconTwitter
(2/20) In our new paper, @alandebromhead and I examine this issue using the world's first large-scale rural public housing scheme, the Labourers Acts cottages in Ireland.
(3/20) Between 1883 and 1915 - and in particular after 1906 - large numbers of very heavily subsidized cottages were built all across rural Ireland, as part of Westminster's policy of 'constructive unionism' (aka "Killing Home Rule with kindness").
Read 20 tweets
🛑JMP Thread🛑

Hello, #EconTwitter! I'm a current JMC at @columbia_econ.

Together with @MinseonPark1 (PhD student @WIeconomics), I study the relationship of school choices across multiple educational stages and its implication on racial segregation in my JMP.

Threads👇 Image
Motivation:

Interrelated nature of school choices seems apparent:

e.g.
parents: often know choosing “right” middle schools → good high schools → good colleges
policy-makers: often view multiple stages as alternative venues of policy intervention
BUT most studies have focused on each school choice stage in isolation from other choices.

We explicitly ask:

1⃣ Do middle schools affect students’ high school choice and outcomes, and if so, how?

2⃣ What does it imply about racial segregation across schools?
Read 13 tweets
We are happy to highlight Lena Song and her JM paper on #econjobmarket today

Her fields are: Applied Microeconomics, Development, Behavioral & Experimental, Political Economy
1/9 Dear #EconTwitter, today we highlight Lena Song’s work. #econjobmarket

Lena studies media and information technologies, with a focus on their relationship to diversity and inequality.

Website: songlena.com
2/9 Lena's JMP studies persuasion. Her theoretical model predicts that the persuasiveness of a message is an inverted-U function of its distance to the audience's existing beliefs.
Read 10 tweets
Here’s a data download for first round interviews. Wisdom I received and things I learned along the way when I was on the JM last year. Please feel free to add your 2c! (I’ll post my notes on flyouts soon)
long 🧵 1/x
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
Your goal is to convince them that you are smart, competent, & kind, that you have an interesting pipeline of work, that you would be a great colleague, and that you will come if they offer you a job. (Insight from @lkatz42)
2/x
Approach interviews with excitement--not dread. Interviews are an opportunity to share work that you’re excited about, an opportunity to chat with a handful of really smart people taking your research seriously. How wonderful!
3/x
Read 25 tweets
**New paper** Over the past 20 years (but not before!), Black and Hispanic college graduates have been steadily earning degrees in relatively lower-paying majors.

The main culprit? An increasingly-common public university policy.

A thread. #EconTwitter zacharybleemer.com/wp-content/upl…
Underrepresented minority (URM) college graduates have long earned lower-paying majors than their non-URM peers, but the gap has been growing for the past 20 years.

Today, URM graduates earn degrees with lower average wages by almost 3%. 2/n
We decompose that widening gap and find that 2/3 can be explained by increased stratification WITHIN universities. URM students' shift toward for-profits matters, but not as much as growing stratification at the schools where they were already enrolling. 3/n
Read 17 tweets
Accepted at Journal of Labor Economics! Our paper 'Specialization, Comparative Advantage and the Sexual Division of Labor' concludes that comparative advantage (CA) has little or no role in the sexual division of labor #Econtwitter @SOLE_Labor_Econ journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/71… 🧵1/10 Image
2/10 Jointly authored with my outstanding former honours student Rhiannon Yetsenga, we believe this is the most direct test to date of Becker’s CA explanation. This is an ambitious paper, with many challenges, including:
3/10 1. CA is not actually observed since absolute advantage in domestic work (AAD) is unobserved. To address this, we examine what AAD would need to be for CA to explain couples’ observed time allocations. We also exploit exogenous gendered shocks to wages
Read 10 tweets
Hi #EconTwitter!
A thread about my job market paper:

"Disagreement Aversion"

JMP link: ssrn.com/abstract=39641…

Although my other works document the political economy of climate change with empirical evidence (e.g. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…), this paper is more theoretical.
1/20
Experts disagree.
Take climate sensitivity, a parameter crucial to model climate change: climate modelers disagree on its probability distribution.
How should we aggregate these experts' distributions? How should we make decisions under expert disagreement?
The benchmark method is linear pooling: to evaluate any option, compute its expected utility using the average of experts' distributions.

Using linear pooling means being neutral to disagreement. It is a perfectly valid method, but we may want to be more cautious.
Read 21 tweets

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