Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Econtwitter
Most recents (24)
Es geht hoch her auf #EconTwitter und #Energietwitter ueber CO2 Preise, Ordnungsrecht und Subventionen. Dabei gibt es solche, die mit Blick auf die USA und den #IRA Subventionen als Allheilmittel der Klimatransformation feiern. Politische steche oekonomische Effizienz. Ein🧵.
Was man sich zunaechst einmal klar machen muss: die Klimatransformation kostet, sie kostet reale Ressourcen, deren Fehlen jemand zu tragen haben wird. Alles, was Politik am Ende kann, ist zu bestimmen, wer den Schaden haben wird.
Natuerlich macht es Sinn, diese Ressourcen aufzuwenden, wenn und weil es uns, wie bei jeder Investition, in Zukunft ein besseres Leben verspricht. Also hier Zustimmung zu @schieritz :
🗣️ Desenrola Brasil vai beneficiar 37 milhões de CPFs e renegociar R$ 50 Bilhões em dívidas, segundo Haddad. Com validação do Presidente Lula, Ministério da Fazenda agora desenvolverá sistema. Anúncio oficial ocorrerá somente após o sistema ficar pronto e adesão dos credores.
💰 O desenho do programa, de acordo com Haddad, deve girar em torno de R$ 10 Bilhões com recursos do Tesouro Nacional num fundo garantidor para uma dívida estimada em R$ 50 Bilhões, envolvendo 37 milhões de CPFs negativados. O programa virá através de medida provisória.
"Monetary actions affect economic conditions ONLY after a lag that is both long and variable" Milton Friedman, JPE, 1961
🚨New paper: we find that this statement is qualified: ❌ONLY
We find important short lags before monetary policy effects fully unravel at long lags 🧵
🚨New paper: we find that this statement is qualified: ❌ONLY
We find important short lags before monetary policy effects fully unravel at long lags 🧵
We use novel consumption (bank transactions), sales (VAT) and employment (social security) at very high-frequency (daily) in Spain, together with high-frequency monetary policy shock identification for the Euro Area, to revisit Friedman's dictum. 2/N
We find significant short lags in the transmission of monetary shocks that are variable in an economically significant way:
-consumption responds to MP shocks in 5 days
- sales in 30 days
- employment immediately but only strongly at long lags
3/N
janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-…
-consumption responds to MP shocks in 5 days
- sales in 30 days
- employment immediately but only strongly at long lags
3/N
janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-…
🗣️ Número de trabalhadores que ganham mais de 2 salários-mínimos atingiu nível recorde em dezembro de 2022. Com a renda em alta, os brasileiros que ganham menos que um salário-mínimo vão deixar de representar a maior parte da parcela dos trabalhadores.
📉 Isso aconteceu por conta da taxa de desemprego que chegou aos 7,9% em dezembro, fechando o ano de 2022 com o menor nível desde o início de 2015. Assim, a parcela de quem não chega a um salário-mínimo diminuiu e aumentou para um nível recorde a população que ganha mais que 2.
🗣️ O BNDES planeja lançar a Letra de Crédito de Desenvolvimento (LCD) e a volta dos subsídios para taxas de juros. A diretoria do BNDES vem negociando com o Ministério da Fazenda um conjunto de mudanças nas formas da instituição obter capital e conceder empréstimos.
📑 Esse conjunto de mudanças deve ser o mais significativo dos últimos 5 anos. O banco planeja lançar o novo instrumento para captar recursos do mercado e reduzir sua dependência do Tesouro Nacional, através da assim chamada Letra de Crédito de Desenvolvimento (LCD).
Thread: New paper available at Social Science Quarterly (cc. @SSQ_Online) with @casey_joe on the myth of wartime prosperity. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ss… #econhist #econtwitter
We take inspiration from Robert Higgs' 1992 "Myth of Wartime Prosperity" in the Journal of Economic History but shift from the USA to Canada.
Higgs had found that all claims of rising living standards were ill-founded. Most of this was the result of bad statistics, bad understanding of economics and wartime distortions to the meaningfulness of prices to convert quantities into "GDP" as a measure of wellbeing
Is Economics self-correcting? We have a new discussion paper, joint with N Fiala & @flneubauer. Quick answer is: No, rather not. We reviewed all replications published as comments in the AER. Plus, we surveyed the authors. A short thread 1/. bit.ly/3y0wMYp #EconTwitter
The AER is one of the few top econ journals that publishes comments on a regular basis. But it’s on the decline. We asked all AER-editors since 1985 what might be the reason – interesting responses, yet no explicit change in policy. 2/.
We searched volumes 2010-2020 for comments and found 56 comments on 53 original papers. Most are secondary-data based papers, some theoretical, few lab[in the field] – and no RCT. 3/.
Hey, so if you're an econ instructor teaching macro this semester, I've got something for you.
I'm sharing an up-to-date slide deck that describes our recent inflationary experience using the conceptual frameworks that we teach our students:
users.nber.org/~jwolfers/teac… #TeachEcon
I'm sharing an up-to-date slide deck that describes our recent inflationary experience using the conceptual frameworks that we teach our students:
users.nber.org/~jwolfers/teac… #TeachEcon
None of us know (yet!) where inflation is going—hence the title: "Is it a spike or is it a surge?"
These slides show students how economists assess things in real time.
And they illustrate there can be (good faith!) debate as our early conclusions are necessarily tentative.
These slides show students how economists assess things in real time.
And they illustrate there can be (good faith!) debate as our early conclusions are necessarily tentative.
The slides aren't designed to only work with the Stevenson and Wolfers textbook -- and I hope others will find them useful. That said, they'll give you a sense of just how much progress a freshman reading our textbook can make, and how prepared they are for big macro debates.
🚨I am glad that our paper:
"Failing Young and Temporary Workers? The Impact of a Disruptive Crisis on a Dual Labour Market"
joint with @JPSantos_econ, @speraltalisboa, Carolina Nunes and José Tavares is available at BEJEAP. #EconTwitter 🧵👇 (1/8)
degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
"Failing Young and Temporary Workers? The Impact of a Disruptive Crisis on a Dual Labour Market"
joint with @JPSantos_econ, @speraltalisboa, Carolina Nunes and José Tavares is available at BEJEAP. #EconTwitter 🧵👇 (1/8)
degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
We show that, even with the sizeable coverage of the furlough scheme in PT:
👉unemployment (registrations in public employment offices) increased
👉new job placements decreased during the first months of the pandemic. (2/8)
👉unemployment (registrations in public employment offices) increased
👉new job placements decreased during the first months of the pandemic. (2/8)
The dual nature of the Portuguese labour market played a key role:
👉unemployment increased more municipalities with higher share of temporary workers;
👉increases in registrations are mostly driven from individuals whose temporary contract was not renewed and by dismissals (3/8)
👉unemployment increased more municipalities with higher share of temporary workers;
👉increases in registrations are mostly driven from individuals whose temporary contract was not renewed and by dismissals (3/8)
A Friday AM thread on randomization inference (RI):
For a randomized experiment, a key difference between RI and standard statistical methods is that RI treats the sample as fixed and the treatment assignment as random, while standard statistics treats the sample as random
For a randomized experiment, a key difference between RI and standard statistical methods is that RI treats the sample as fixed and the treatment assignment as random, while standard statistics treats the sample as random
In a simple t-test to compare a treatment to control, a p-value is obtained using the null distribution of the t-statistic. This null distribution comes from hypothetical repeats of this experiment (under H0), each with a different random sample from the population of interest.
In RI, we think about potential outcomes: What would we have observed for this sample if we had obtained a different treatment assignment (by chance)? This becomes a missing data problem, which we can think about using Fisher's "science table"
***New paper*** How do affirmative action's most common race-neutral alternatives comparatively reshape universities' enrollment of underrepresented minority (URM) and lower-income students?
Here's a thread of new evidence from California. #EconTwitter
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Here's a thread of new evidence from California. #EconTwitter
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
My own prior work has shown that affirmative action provided big admission advantages to URM Californians before the state banned AA in 1998.
The ban led URM students to cascade into less-selective universities, which had long-run economic consequences: academic.oup.com/qje/advance-ar…
The ban led URM students to cascade into less-selective universities, which had long-run economic consequences: academic.oup.com/qje/advance-ar…
The new study starts by taking a look at admission and enrollment at the University of California since the 1990s.
While URM enrollment seems to has "recovered" at Berkeley and UCLA since AA was banned, the recovery can be wholly explained by demographic trends in California.
While URM enrollment seems to has "recovered" at Berkeley and UCLA since AA was banned, the recovery can be wholly explained by demographic trends in California.
🗣️ O Brasil tem os maiores juros reais do mundo e fica a pergunta: por que que a SELIC não cai? A taxa de juros está em 13,75% com uma inflação de 5,79% fazendo com que você tenha uma taxa de juros real bem maior do que a maioria das economias mundiais. Entenda o porquê.
🗺️ Os demais países estão com uma inflação mais alta do que a taxa de juros, mas é preciso entender o porquê disso. Primeiro é preciso voltar um pouco e lembrar que, no auge da pandemia, a taxa de juros chegou aos 2% ao ano e se manteve assim por 6 meses até março de 2021.
🗣️ O BNDES vai priorizar o apoio a micro, pequenas e médias empresas, segundo Aloísio Mercadante. A declaração veio na cerimônia de posse onde também informou que o BNDES vai trabalhar no mesmo formato de um Eximbank, um banco voltado à promoção de exportações.
💡A ideia do Eximbank é adotar o modelo feito e outros países como EUA, Alemanha e membros da OCDE. Mercadante disse que a mudança que ele quer promover no BNDES não vai envolver o abandono da TLP e o retorno da TJLP, taxa que foi muito utilizada no passado com juros subsidiados
Let's learn a few things about Behavioral Economics and Behavioral Science
🧵
#EconTwitter #AcademicTwitter #phdlife @PhDVoice #economics
(1/9)
🧵
#EconTwitter #AcademicTwitter #phdlife @PhDVoice #economics
(1/9)
Behavioral Economics focuses on how behavior affects economic decisions and outcomes, while Behavioral Science focuses on the study of behavior more broadly and its influences across multiple domains.
While they are related, they differ in their scope and focus.
(2/9)
While they are related, they differ in their scope and focus.
(2/9)
Behavioral economics (BE) emerged as a response to the traditional assumption that people are perfectly rational and make decisions based solely on self-interest. It recognized that people's decisions are often influenced by factors such as framing, heuristics, and biases.
(3/9)
(3/9)
Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why:
First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year, @BLS_gov incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).
Importantly, BLS does *not* revise its previously published data -- it treats each year's adjustment as a one-time change, as if the population suddenly grew or shrank in January, as you can see in this chart.
At which level should one cluster standard errors? What's good empirical practice? Have you ever heard about placebo regressions in this context? Here is a very useful guide that was recently published in the JoE doi.org/10.1016/j.jeco…. 🧵 with a short summary. #EconTwitter 1/9
The general idea is of course that we divide the sample into clusters and that we allow for heteroskedasticity/dependence within clusters while assuming independence across clusters. 2/9
This works asymptotically (Section 2 of paper), but it turns out that in finite samples, inferences may not be reliable. Then, the bootstrap could work. 3/9
Unnoticed by the public+just in time for the🇪🇺🇺🇦 summit, big progress was made last week on🇺🇦reconstruction planning. White smoke: G7 have agreed on governance of donor coordination platform, first meeting was held. Progress report🧵: structure, finances, challenges, agenda 1/
In Dec. 22, the G7 had taken charge of recovery planning after conferences without decisions in Lugano (July 22) and Berlin (Oct. 22). After months of negotiations, agreement on governance was reached earlier in January. First (video) meeting took place on January 26th. 2/
A triumvirate as steering committee for the "🇺🇦Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform":
1⃣ 🇺🇸: Mike Pyle, Dep. Nat. Sec. Advisor for Int. Economics
2⃣ 🇺🇦: Serhii Marchenko, Finance Minister
3⃣ 🇪🇺: Gert Jan Koopman (@GertJanEU), Dir Gen DG NEAR
3/
1⃣ 🇺🇸: Mike Pyle, Dep. Nat. Sec. Advisor for Int. Economics
2⃣ 🇺🇦: Serhii Marchenko, Finance Minister
3⃣ 🇪🇺: Gert Jan Koopman (@GertJanEU), Dir Gen DG NEAR
3/
. @CarloMasala1 mit einem interessanten Thread. Ich erlaube mir, etwas Wasser in den Wein zu giessen. Interessant vllt. auch fuer @ClaudMajor @jana_puglierin @jakluge @gloefflmann und andere.
Einschraenkungen der auf das zivile Leben ausgerichteten wirtschaftlichen Aktivitaet kann es ja auf zweierlei Weisen geben: 1) so wie man das historisch aus Kriegswirtschaften kennt und wie es @CarloMasala1 richtig schildert, ua mit direkten Staatsinterventionen.
2) Oekonomisch bei (nahezu) ausgelasteten Resourcen. Technisch gesprochen: wenn man sich auf der Produktionsmoeglichkeitenkurve entlang statt auf sie zu bewegt. Man nennt das dann Crowding-out.
🚨 Tips for writing a POSITIVE referee report.
As an author and an editor, I’ve noticed some reviewers are better than others at writing a positive referee report. So, I decided to share 3 simple tips in the thread below. 👇
#EconTwitter
As an author and an editor, I’ve noticed some reviewers are better than others at writing a positive referee report. So, I decided to share 3 simple tips in the thread below. 👇
#EconTwitter
Tip #1: Act fast!
If you love the paper, submit your report ASAP. Editors see their decisions as an optimal stopping problem. They invite more referees than they expect to need, and skim through the reports as they come in. So, the order in which reports are submitted matters.
If you love the paper, submit your report ASAP. Editors see their decisions as an optimal stopping problem. They invite more referees than they expect to need, and skim through the reports as they come in. So, the order in which reports are submitted matters.
Let's say an Editor invited 3 referees for a paper. Those referees would (eventually) recommend: 1 Reject and 2 R&Rs. If the editor waited for all 3 referees, the decision would be Revise. Let's see what is likely to happen when the reports are submitted in different orders.
1/ As promised. . .post-reflections on editing
here are 10 exciting articles from each journal #EconTwitter. Today REHO (note not articles I personally was the managing editor for); CER tomorrow
here are 10 exciting articles from each journal #EconTwitter. Today REHO (note not articles I personally was the managing editor for); CER tomorrow
2/ link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Dave + Yang: Evidence that working in a more intensive occupation during pregnancy ⬆️ probability of adverse birth outcome
Dave + Yang: Evidence that working in a more intensive occupation during pregnancy ⬆️ probability of adverse birth outcome
3/ link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Cigno: gendered divisions of labor originally generated by use of plough may persist
Cigno: gendered divisions of labor originally generated by use of plough may persist
Recently passed a year of editing (well, slightly more at REHO) so wanted to share some #EconTwitter thoughts on what I've learned (take them with a grain of salt, as there are many more experienced editors out there!)
For authors: generally, cover letters can be extremely brief unless you are bringing something very specific to my attention. If the cover letter repeats what's in the intro, not necessary (I will look at the intro!)
For referees: please respond to requests (saying no is fine, a rapid no is better than a ghosting) Recs of other referees are a nice bonus. A short report that is on time or close to it is also very welcome (you don't have to wait until you have 2 whole pages written)
.@FT's @sarahoconnor_
I also think that making economics more understandable is a worthy endeavour, especially right now....Because the profession suffers from what Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, calls a “twin deficit”, of understanding and of trust.
I also think that making economics more understandable is a worthy endeavour, especially right now....Because the profession suffers from what Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, calls a “twin deficit”, of understanding and of trust.
@FT @sarahoconnor_ "In a UK survey in 2019, 40 per cent of respondents said it had become more difficult to understand economics."
"Part of this is a translation problem. Most economic concepts are not complicated, but they’re couched in a language that makes no sense to people who don’t speak it."
"Part of this is a translation problem. Most economic concepts are not complicated, but they’re couched in a language that makes no sense to people who don’t speak it."
@FT @sarahoconnor_ Here's the link to the article:
ft.com/content/e14d93…
#economics #EconTwitter #economy #economists
ft.com/content/e14d93…
#economics #EconTwitter #economy #economists
This week's cool young researcher is Fatima Aqeel at Colgate University who works on questions related to gender, intimate partner violence + women's employment #EconTwitter
sites.google.com/view/fatima-aq…
sites.google.com/view/fatima-aq…
One paper currently R&R at WBER analyzes a reform in Pakistan in which admissions' criteria at medical schools were equalized for men + women, leading to an ⬆️ in labor force participation by women medical graduates + graduates overall
and ⬆️ utilization of formal care in areas w/more female doctors
drive.google.com/file/d/1fI7aLF…
drive.google.com/file/d/1fI7aLF…
When #EconTwitter users were followed by an Econ PhD student, they were much more likely to follow back if she was female, at a high-ranked university and white.
Even if the black Econ PhD student was at a top university, they were still less likely to be heard.
Even if the black Econ PhD student was at a top university, they were still less likely to be heard.
This is such a brilliantly clever research design!
Following back may sound minor but it echoes a famous essay by Gayatri Chakravorty,
She argued that the question is not “Can the Subaltern Speak?” but “Can they be heard?”
Do people listen to their ideas & analysis?
Following back may sound minor but it echoes a famous essay by Gayatri Chakravorty,
She argued that the question is not “Can the Subaltern Speak?” but “Can they be heard?”
Do people listen to their ideas & analysis?
If the EconPhD is systematically less likely to be followed back because of their gender/ institution/ ethnicity, then no matter how productive, innovative and creative, then others will not know, will not provide support or critique.
Social capital remains hugely important.
Social capital remains hugely important.
