Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/22. Apr 03 to Apr 09 -
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 192 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/22. Portugal has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone, and will stay in it (R-eff=1.0), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/22. The UK is landing in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.84), and is decreasing in mortality, at very low levels, for 7 more days.

4/22. Ireland (and Denmark) are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with R-eff=1.04 (and 1.01), at medium levels, and plateauing in mortality, at medium (very low) level, for 7 more days.

Spain (1.10) in similar situation, although at higher pace and pressure.

5/22 - Norway (and Finland), European champions in fighting #COVID19 have both taken over control of their epidemic activity with R-eff=0.92 (0.89), and low (medium) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Iceland benefits from #ZeroCovid strategy, with no case, no foreseen death.

6/22. Italy is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.95), at high levels of activity, and slowly increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Cyprus (1.05) is plateauing.
Greece (1.03), is plateauing.
Malta (0.52) is rapidly improving.

7/22. Germany (and Switzerland) are plateauing at high level in #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=1.04 (1.10), with medium (low) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Swiss cantons detailed in:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378339008321830917?s=20

Austria (1.05), high levels of activ, with high mortality.

8/22. France (and Belgium) are rising at unsustained pace (1.10), at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing in mortality at very (high) level for 7 more d.

New forecast for French regions:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1378267552544133123?s=20

NL (1.07); LUX (1.07) in similar situations

9/22. Czechia is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.83), although remaining at high levels of activity, and is decreasing in mortality too, with still alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Estonia (0.76), Slovakia (0.92) in similar situations.

10/22. Poland is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), and increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

Croatia (1,24), Bosnia-Herzegovinia (1.09), Ukraine (1.06) similar.
Hungaria (0.96), Bulgaria (0.99) plateau.

11/22. Tunisia is experiencing a surge, at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.26), and is increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

Libya (0.86) is decreasing in its activity.

12/22. Namibia is rising at medium levels, in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), and is increasing in mortality, at high levels , for 7 more days.

13/22. South Africa has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and will stay in it, plateauing in mortality at low levels, for 7 more days.

14/22. Qatar is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17), at high levels of activity, medium levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

Oman (1.17), Iran (1.11), Iraq (1.06) are increasing.
Jordan (0.87) is decreasing.
Israel (0.42) is safe.

15/22. Russia has almost stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.97), just above it, while plateauing at high levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

16/22. China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore five Asian champions in fighting #COVID19, will all remain below <1 new case/100Kpop./day, with no foreseen deaths, in the 7 upcoming days. #ZeroCovid .
Japan, South Korea, Nepal in their safety zones.

17/22. Philippines, (with India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) are all experiencing a rise or surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with R-eff=1.15 (1.22; 1.29; 1.15), at medium (low) levels, with very low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days.

18/22. Canada is experiencing a rise at medium levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1377930045080092672?s=20

(Forecast for 4 provinces in the thread)
Nova Scotia, New Brunswick in #ZeroCovid green zones

19/22. The USA are entering in a #COVID19 third wave (R-eff=1.08), increasing at high levels of activity, plateauing in mortality, at high levels too, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1377936949982420995?s=20

(Forecast for 9 states in the thread)

Mexico (0.93) in safe zone, while high mortality.

20/22. Brazil is plateauing at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), while the country is worryingly increasing in mortality at alarming level, for 7 more days.

Argentina (1.21), Uruguay (1.26), Colombia (1.21) surge at high level, very high mortality;

21/22. Chile, vaccinated>40% of its population, is experiencing an increase at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), increasing in mortality, at very high levels, for 7 more days.

Paraguay (0.98), Peru (1.0) plateauing at high level.

22/22. Australia (and New Zealand), two Pacific champions in fighting #COVID19 will both remain in their safety zone with no expected death, for 7 more days.

Both countries are experiencing successful #ZeroCovid strategy (with resp. 8 and no case with no death).

23/22.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
...

24/22.
"Champion" country: mortality < 20 cumulative deaths per 100K pop

Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low < 0.10
0.10 < Medium < 0.20
0.20 < High < 0.50
Very high > 0.50
Alarming > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0