JPR007 Profile picture
4 Apr, 7 tweets, 1 min read
REFERENCE BENCHMARK

Once we have a clear understanding of our Valuation Methodology, it is useful to make a couple of important observations

1. We have never seen a case before like Tesla where the broad direction of the future can be predicted with such confidence
It is quite remarkable and it is a consequence of three things

- one is that it comes from a fundamental disruption of a very large and important industry sector and consumer sector, the sort of thing that happens only once in a lifetime or once in 100 years for that sector
- the second is that this company is being led by a remarkable set of human talents and appears to be accumulating and building even more talent internally
- and the combination of that talent with its breadth and depth of real-time experience is going to be unmatched for a very long time
2. When you find a stock with such robust characteristics, it ought to become the reference benchmark for any other investment or storage place for your money capital

- and you should measure any other investment or use of your money capital against that benchmark
When you do that, it quickly becomes clear that you should not be holding your money capital in any fiat currency like USD, CAD, RMB, EUR, GBP or JPY
You should instead consider using TSLA shares as your "holding currency"

- and then invest in other stocks when they offer a better return with lower risk than that "holding currency"

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More from @jpr007

6 Apr
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @wintonARK @ARKInvest U.S. STOCK MARKET vs U.S. GDP

We should always think about what we have seen before . . . Image
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @wintonARK @ARKInvest Let's take a look at that journey from the depths of the Second World War in a step-by-step fashion

1. The War Years actually drove a strong stock market

** NOTE : U.S. GDP is shown here in nominal dollars that include inflation ** Image
@elonmusk @CathieDWood @wintonARK @ARKInvest 2. And the relative "Peace" of the late 1950s and early 1960s actually lifted the stock market even higher to run above the GDP trend line Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Apr
Motional is the Aptiv-Hyundai $4 billion joint venture aimed at commercializing driverless cars

They announced a partnership with Lyft in December 2020 as the ride-hailing company’s primary involvement in Motional’s plans

tcrn.ch/2O72cJh via @TechCrunch
Hyundai IONIQ 5 will be Motional + Lyft's first robotaxi

The Hyundai IONIQ 5 was revealed in February 2021 with a consumer release date expected later this year

Motional will integrate its driverless technology into the all-electric SUV to create the company’s first robotaxi
The vehicles will be equipped with the hardware and software needed for Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, including lidar, radar and cameras to provide the vehicle’s sensing system with 360 degrees of vision, and the ability to see up to 300 meters away
Read 8 tweets
4 Apr
TESLA CAPACITY IN 2021 - A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

Tesla's 2021 Q1 results have provided valuable insight into their currently Scheduled Production Capacity

The Capacity Map that we prepared as an illustration last week before the Q1 results were announced showed 179,688 units Image
Using the same approach, we have now prepared a similar map for 2021 Q2 :

- with Fremont Model S and Model X now running

- and Shanghai Model Y ramping up to 2 shifts

It shows potential output of 248,438 units for Q2 Image
For 2021 Q3 we have assumed :

- Shanghai Model Y ramps up to 3 shifts

- Austin Model Y begins 1-shift operation

It shows potential output of 262,500 units for Q3 Image
Read 6 tweets
4 Apr
HOW TO INVEST IN STOCKS

1. Let us start with the principle that a stock will ultimately be valued based on its earnings, regardless of how it is priced today

So Future Value = Future Net Income x Future P/E Multiple / Future Number of Shares

It is that simple
2. For a stock to deliver you a 15% return based on its fundamentals, it has to grow its earnings at 15% or more over the investment period

- once its earnings growth slows below 15% per year its discounted present value will naturally decline
3. Normally its Net Income growth must be driven by its Revenue growth

- so this means that you must look for stocks whose Revenues are growing more than +15% per year and which are expected to continue to do so for as many years as possible
Read 17 tweets
3 Apr
WHAT DOES "BETA" REALLY MEAN ?

"Wall Street Analysts" and other commentators like to talk about "Beta" :

“Tesla has to have a higher return because it has a higher risk”

“It has a higher risk because it has a higher beta”

This is not the most useful way to think of "beta"
Beta is a measure of past volatility of an indidual stock relative to the past volatility of the broader market

Now consider this :

1. An investor’s investment risk is not in the past

2. An investor’s investment risk is not in the present
3. An investor’s investment risk is in the future

- once they own the stock, the only uncertainty that matters is "what will be the stock price at the end of my investment time horizon ?"

4.. An investor’s investment risk has nothing to do with present stock price volatility
Read 7 tweets
3 Apr
WHAT SHOULD BE YOUR EQUITY DISCOUNT RATE ?

Answer : it should be the rate that you want your portfolio grow by over the years

So first ask yourself "what result do you want to achieve over your investment time horizon ?"
- if you want to double or 2x the value of your portfolio over 5 years, you should use at least 15% per year

- if you want to quadruple or 4x the value of your portfolio over 10 years, you should use at least 15% per year
- if you want to increase the value of your portfolio by 16x over 20 years, you should use at least 15% per year

You may notice a pattern here . . .

It is that simple
Read 5 tweets

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