Once we have a clear understanding of our Valuation Methodology, it is useful to make a couple of important observations
1. We have never seen a case before like Tesla where the broad direction of the future can be predicted with such confidence
It is quite remarkable and it is a consequence of three things
- one is that it comes from a fundamental disruption of a very large and important industry sector and consumer sector, the sort of thing that happens only once in a lifetime or once in 100 years for that sector
- the second is that this company is being led by a remarkable set of human talents and appears to be accumulating and building even more talent internally
- and the combination of that talent with its breadth and depth of real-time experience is going to be unmatched for a very long time
2. When you find a stock with such robust characteristics, it ought to become the reference benchmark for any other investment or storage place for your money capital
- and you should measure any other investment or use of your money capital against that benchmark
When you do that, it quickly becomes clear that you should not be holding your money capital in any fiat currency like USD, CAD, RMB, EUR, GBP or JPY
You should instead consider using TSLA shares as your "holding currency"
- and then invest in other stocks when they offer a better return with lower risk than that "holding currency"
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1. The War Years actually drove a strong stock market
** NOTE : U.S. GDP is shown here in nominal dollars that include inflation **
@elonmusk@CathieDWood@wintonARK@ARKInvest 2. And the relative "Peace" of the late 1950s and early 1960s actually lifted the stock market even higher to run above the GDP trend line
Hyundai IONIQ 5 will be Motional + Lyft's first robotaxi
The Hyundai IONIQ 5 was revealed in February 2021 with a consumer release date expected later this year
Motional will integrate its driverless technology into the all-electric SUV to create the company’s first robotaxi
The vehicles will be equipped with the hardware and software needed for Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, including lidar, radar and cameras to provide the vehicle’s sensing system with 360 degrees of vision, and the ability to see up to 300 meters away
1. Let us start with the principle that a stock will ultimately be valued based on its earnings, regardless of how it is priced today
So Future Value = Future Net Income x Future P/E Multiple / Future Number of Shares
It is that simple
2. For a stock to deliver you a 15% return based on its fundamentals, it has to grow its earnings at 15% or more over the investment period
- once its earnings growth slows below 15% per year its discounted present value will naturally decline
3. Normally its Net Income growth must be driven by its Revenue growth
- so this means that you must look for stocks whose Revenues are growing more than +15% per year and which are expected to continue to do so for as many years as possible