Dave Lee Profile picture
4 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
From March 2014:

"The continuously decreasing battery prices is the key advantage that could open up an opportunity for Tesla to sneak in with the Gen4 in 2022."

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
"Gen4 will be the iPhone of the family & compact sedan market. This one will take longer since it might not be released until 2022 & it will take time for costs (ie., battery) to come down and production to ramp. So, by 2035-2040 I can see Tesla taking 50% sales of this market." https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-b
Funny to look back at these posts and find that @emmetpeppers who went by TSLAOpt on TMC see Tesla's potential back then.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
Even funnier to see how Emmet named his TMC account "TSLAOpt" (as in TSLA Options) back in 2013.

Options must be in his blood. 🤣

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More from @heydave7

5 Apr
1/ Tesla’s surprise Q1 report (185k vehicles delivered) removes much uncertainty many investors had, namely poor Q1 earnings could lead to a depressed stock price that could last multiple quarters.

This is a big opportunity for sentiment to turn positive.
2/ Tesla smashed expectations despite Q1 being seasonally weakest quarter and no refreshed S/X deliveries

Q2 will only get better with Shanghai continuing to ramp Model Y production and Tesla able to deliver refreshed S/X.
3/ Q1’s blowout deliveries also means that Tesla might post record Q1 earnings and profits.

As Tesla increases deliveries EVERY quarter this year, revenue & profit increase every quarter especially because revenue & gross profit will increase much faster than operating expenses.
Read 11 tweets
6 Feb
I interviewed Bruce Norris from @thenorrisgroup who I’ve been following for 15 years and is one of the best in understanding real estate trends and prices in California and Florida.



Here’s why Bruce doesn’t think a real estate crash is coming any time soon.
First, lenders have generally been much more conservative in lending compared to the type of lending that led to the 2008-2011 housing crash. This means less likelihood of default.
Second, interest rates are at historic lows and are attracting new buyers wanting to lock in a fixed housing expense for 30 years.
Read 9 tweets
14 Jan
Technology is enabling winner-takes-most markets in an unprecedented manner.

Here’s a thread on how to take advantage of this as an investor.
Technology and the Internet has created network effects. Add a person to the network and the value of the entire network grows, meaning the network becomes more valuable to every person on the network.
Network effects tend to be bi-directional.

For each new seller on Ebay, value is added to buyers (meaning more selection, lower prices, etc).

And for each new buyer on Ebay, value is added to sellers (meaning larger buyer base, more demand and volume).
Read 9 tweets
24 Dec 20
Without a holding company:

In ~5 years, Elon steps down as Tesla CEO, remains as Chief Product Officer

In ~10 years, leaves Tesla completely to focus on SpaceX and Neuralink. Starts selling his TSLA stock.

This is fairly obvious to me.
However if a holding company is formed, Elon will oversee Tesla, SpaceX (and dozens of other ventures tbd) until the day he dies or loses the cognitive function to run it. Could be another 40 years. Makes a big difference.
Personally, I think @elonmusk is the best investor of capital and innovator at scale in our generation, and that might be an understatement.

This is an opportunity to create a structure that would optimize his time and interests the most.
Read 6 tweets
23 Dec 20
I propose @elonmusk to form a holding company called X.

X's mission is to ensure human survival and progress.

X becomes parent company of Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and Boring Company.

Elon, what do you think? 🙏
Each company under the holding company will have it's own specific vision but one that supports bigger vision of ensuring human survival and progress.

Tesla - accelerate world's transition to sustainable energy

SpaceX - make space-faring civilization

Boring Co - end traffic
Neuralink - protect humanity from general AI

Starting a biotech company might make sense under the holding company as well.

Education too.
Read 8 tweets
23 Dec 20
I don't think @elonmusk would have been happy working for Tim Cook. 😉
Elon: Hey boss, I’ve got some ideas to make some awesome new battery cells. Can I get your go-ahead?

Tim: Draft me a spreadsheet and presentation and I’ll take a look.

Elon: 🤯
Elon: I want the charger included in the price of the car.

Tim: No way. You know how much margin we can make off of the charger?

Elon: 🤯
Read 7 tweets

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