When I keep banging on about remainers obsession with North redwall seats - don’t believe me.
See for yourself.

Yes there’s plenty of northern seats up for grabs but the real target is swing voters..
& the distribution is different than media narrative.


At the risk of boring people
We didn’t get Brexit “thanks to northerners”
Northerners were in fact less enthusiastic about referendum in terms of turnout than many areas and in % terms than the midlands.

The redwall obsession is a continuation of a London media myth.

In England “people voted Brexit not areas”.

Young (<40), Students & graduates moved to cities & south and voted remain which tipped often brexity areas into remain seats.

Many who haven’t really understood 2016...now of course cannot understand 2024.

Which of course leads many to miss the obvious:

To get Johnson out you don’t need some “huge red-wall effort”..

...you need relatively modest switches in swing voters in swing constituencies.

...well who’d have thought it...just like every election really.

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More from @nicktolhurst

4 Apr
The Northern Independence Party is a spoiler party led by Corbynite activists.

Its stated goals are virtually impossible for it to achieve..tho its main (largely unstated) achievable aim is to peel of Labour votes in traditional Labour areas to derail any potential Labour govt.

Large % of members London based as expected for a Corbynite spoiler party as are many leading figures.

Northern independence isn’t going to happen however the real aim - the destruction of a viable centre-left govt in an age of Johnson & Trump II is their holy grail. Image

People think it’s a fun even jokey outfit or failing that a genuine grassroots party.

It’s not.
It’s a well run PR outfit.
The point is to ensure Labour lose seats and to destroy possibility of a centre left for a generation.
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr

UK govt backtracks and decides at the last minute to supply £250 million funding to keep association with EU “Horizon” research & science program.

The UK govt has refused to participate post-Brexit but plans for other schemes such as a CANZUK system never materialised.

Report in Guardian today on this.


The report by the govt on the other hand seems designed to give the impression to the uniformed observer in the 1st paragraphs that it’s all a new thing so that UK can become a “science superpower”...

...rather than a continuation of an EU project.

Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
While the hundreds & thousands of pounds UK govt paid in cash or in kind to Jennifer Arcuri due to her relationship with Boris Johnson has created the biggest storm...

..the real story is the amount of of undisclosed money funnelled to Arcuri..& this could run to over a million.

Question we should really be asking is how a bankrupt waitress being sued for $100 000 in unpaid student fees..

...ended up with $1 million plopping into her failing company which had no assets nor income save govt grants Boris arranged for her...


Again why isn’t the media asking:

1. Where this $1 million came from?
2. Did Boris know the source or even help arrange it?
3. Is the source British?
4. What did the provider of this money receive in return?
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
I started this thread 18 months ago when I heard Jennifer Arcuri - a bankrupt student-waitress whose only real income was via fraudulent grants arranged by Boris Johnson..

..loaned her own failing firm £700 000.

It’s surely in UK’s interest that we know who supplied this money?

There’s a lot about this story that simply demands a thorough investigation - particularly on national security grounds.

1. Who supplied the £700 000?
2. Was the source known to Boris Johnson?
3. Was the ultimate source British?
4. What did they get/expect to get in return?

A failing company with no real assets or income run by a bankrupt student heavily involved with Boris Johnson in what looks like fraudulent schemes suddenly gets a cash injection of almost £750 000.

Months later Johnson became Prime Minister.

Who is looking into this?
Read 5 tweets
21 Mar

An estimated 500 000 young people have left UK due to a combination of COVID + Brexit.

A number of studies show half a million people aged between 18-39 left the UK in the final provisional years of Brexit & as COVID struck.

The decline in older people has been far less pronounced as older settled foreigners choose to stay while a significant number of older British citizens decided to return full time from EU states to the UK.

This is a good link as it shows a number of different estimates.

At this stage we don’t know exactly how many people have left - although no one serious is denying something dramatic has happened in population flows & numbers.

Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
Somewhere around 2022/3 the penny will drop with the London polit-media establishment that they’re involved in a race...

...a race to make Brexit work before N. Ireland & Scotland leave the UK.

& the last gambit they realise they can play that might just work is...

...the EEA.

It won’t be rejoin because the establishment campaigning for rejoin inside 5 years is the national equivalent of humiliating oneself & showing ones utter ridiculousness before the entire world.

But EEA.
It’s doable.
And EEA..
..will inevitably lead to rejoin.

People saying the "EU will never let the UK rejoin" are looking at the future too much through the eyes of this year's feelings.

In 2030 the world, Europe, the UK will be all very different. Virtually all European leaders will be different.
A generational change from 2016.
Read 6 tweets

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