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David Pritchard Profile picture
@drpritch2
Apr 4, 2021 • 9 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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1/ Looking at cross-border #Covid19 data, to shine some light in our data blind spots.

Greater Toronto is back near its January peak. Like then, there are two peak points: Buffalo and Peel. 🇺🇸Niagara County and 🇨🇦London are up more than 2x over 2 weeks.

davidpritchard.org/covid/covidUsa…
2/ 🇨🇦Sarnia and Windsor are next to a more dire situation, with case rates 6-8x across the 🇺🇸border.

Lake Huron 🇺🇸 counties and metro Detroit are soaring in B117 cases and doubling every 12 days.

The Michigan-Ohio border is striking too; makes this feel driven by MI's policies.
3/ Pulling back, we can see the extent to which Michigan is the leading edge of the third wave, with Metro NYC as the second major cluster.

Interactive map:
davidpritchard.org/covid/covidUsa…
4/ Outside Montréal, ⚜️Québec is also seeing really fast growth.

Over the last two weeks: Bas-St-Laurent is up 15x, Québec City up 6x and Gatineau (Outaouais) up 3x.

The Estrie-🇺🇸Vermont border remains at a 10x difference in case rates, but fairly stable.
5/ In the prairies, the hottest spots are south Saskatchewan and Minnesota. Alberta and Manitoba are cooling down, as are Thunder Bay/Kenora.
6/ In BC, the growth rate is worrying: a doubling time of 10-12 days. The Greater Vancouver area leads the way, but growth rates are similar across the province.
7/ At a full Canada/USA view, large geographies are emphasized: high growth in Michigan, Québec City, Minnesota, New York, south Saskatchewan, Gatineau, Vancouver. Buffalo doesn't span a large geography, but its growth is in the same ballpark.

Full maps:
davidpritchard.org/covid/covidUsa…
8/ We are all going to be hit by B117. High growth regions probably just reflect the first places where that strain is now dominant; growth appears to accelerate at that moment.

9/ The purpose of this thread is not to alarm or blame, just to help everyone keep up with the cross-border situation, since most maps/datasets cover only one side of the border.

There's a torrent of data, and it's hard to stay abreast.

Explore yourself:
davidpritchard.org/covid/covidUsa…

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More from @drpritch2

David Pritchard Profile picture
Dec 1, 2020
1/ Another look at the #Covid19Canada border, with animations.

The prairies: we can see a big buildup in COVID in the US border states (Dakotas, Montana, Minnesota) by early October. Then in early November it snowballs first in Manitoba next to the border.
2/ The current map of the prairie provinces' border. Image
3/ See my earlier and more detailed thread for more discussion of this phenomenon:
Read 6 tweets
David Pritchard Profile picture
Nov 26, 2020
1/ Let's talk about the border, #COVID19canada and #COVID19Ontario.

So many maps stop at the border. And the Canadian metrics (weekly cases/100k, @imgrund) don't align with the US metrics (daily cases/100k). I think we have trouble understanding just how dire the border is. Image
2/ This is what we think about in Ontario right now. Peel: nearly 200 weekly cases/100k population. Toronto: also in lockdown. The rest of the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area, in the 50-110 bracket, above the red "Control" threshold of 40. Image
3/ Of course... if we look a bit further afield, we see that New York State - one of the states doing the best at fighting COVID-19 - has a ton of regions in the 2-3x Toronto ballpark. Buffalo is at 340 weekly cases/100k, Rochester at 240. Image
Read 11 tweets
David Pritchard Profile picture
Jul 30, 2020
#COVID19 in #Ottawa this week: the case spike that started two weeks ago has levelled off, at a new higher plateau. Rt is dropping towards 1.0.

But we have three childcare outbreaks and children/teenagers are ~40% of the week's cases. 1/
First, the latest COVID19 Rt (reproduction rate) and case graph. 2/
Now, back to the discussion of children. There's unfortunately little discussion of what's driving this trend. Daycares largely opened in the week of June 12-19.

A few news articles:
ottawa.ctvnews.ca/three-staff-ca…
3/
Read 7 tweets
David Pritchard Profile picture
Jul 22, 2020
1/ What does the data show about the recent #Ottawa #COVID19 surge?

Geography: while Alta Vista has the highest case rate over the entire epidemic, Ward 10 Gloucester-Southgate appears to be driving the last two weeks of growth.
2/ Demographics: @ottawapublichealth hasn't pointed the finger at any single group, just parties and "indoor private gatherings" in general.

The data agrees - apart from a spike in teenage activity at end of June / Canada Day weekend, and a 20s spike in the last week.
3/ Private indoor gatherings folks. Stay outside, keep the group sizes down.
Read 5 tweets

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