Its Monday again. Your friendly reminder, you are living through the largest social policy disaster in Canadian history. Thanks to your public health community.
Lets briefly consider one origin of this disaster, "Anecdote vs Data" ......1/
Lets briefly consider one origin of this disaster, "Anecdote vs Data" ......1/
The C19 response has been fueled from the beginning by anecdotes. Its a standard behavioral psychology trick, personalize the threat to increase compliance. Understandable if the threat is serious, the current one isn't. The wreckage it leaves behind is substantial...2/
The issue is this. Anecdotes are designed to support a narrative, not to illuminate the truth. They can leave strong lasting impressions that are false. They accumulate over time and that in turn cripples policy action, akin to what we see now.....3/
Take for example the myth of asymptomatic spread. This anecdote manipulates your deepest fear based emotions of the "unseen threat". It was intimately tied to wild claims of innocuous super spreader events, many of which were later debunked....4/
Science was clear, it never or rarely occurred. But that didn't matter. This anecdote was powerful and it remained so, crippling normal hospital, school and business operations. Unneeded regulations arose and that drove inefficiency and hysteria.....5/
We would be been better served by an approach grounded in data analysis. Unfortunately, as we now know, Canada is terrible at data analysis. We aren't Britian where the ONS records deaths within 10 days. In Canada, its between 4-5 months.....6/
A few examples of importance. Canada's lockdown policies killed many young people in Fall 2020. Poor death recording meant we didn't find out till February 2021. Next, proper modeling requires hard parameters (deaths), we use vague parameters like "cases". Big mistake.....7/
Serious data analytics needs to be developed in Canada, two components in particular.
1) Collection. Determine a priori what data is to be collected and where it will be centrally store.
2) Analysis. Data savvy analysts, not a grad student from the local university....8/
1) Collection. Determine a priori what data is to be collected and where it will be centrally store.
2) Analysis. Data savvy analysts, not a grad student from the local university....8/
Lets hope when this dreadfully diaster comes to an end, our public health community bravely admits its failings and smart enough to find those who can address their short comings. End.
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