Thread by @Musso___

Interessante pezzo di Adam Tooze

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…

Qui commentato da Fazi

https://twitter.com/battleforeurope/status/1378321333751283714

“In the aftermath of 1992, Italian membership in monetary union seemed like a long shot.
- The UK, which also dropped out of the ERM in September 1992, never looked back. It embarked on the route of central bank independence with a floating exchange rate ...

...
- By contrast, amidst the chaos of Italy’s political crisis, Draghi and Italy’s centrist political elite clung to Europe as an anchor of stability - the vincolo esterno”
👉 Cioè, dice Tooze, Draghi l’americano non ha fatto l’americano

Secondo esempio :

“Years later ... an incident when Draghi clashed with Yellen over her unrelenting and uncomprehending attacks on the fundamental non-viability of the euro. Draghi snapped that Yellen was being “unconstructive”

👉 Yellen = l’America oggi

Terzo esempio :

“It was Draghi’s frustration with the incomprehension of Mervyn King and City of London types that vented itself in “whatever it takes” in 2012”

👉 Un contro-esempio, in effetti : perché Draghi “salvò” Leuro esattamente facendo ciò che gli dicevano gli anglos

Quindi back to 1992 :

“For Draghi’s generation of Italian centrist politicians and technocrats European monetary integration is indeed more than an economic policy. It is a historic project of state-building. It encapsulates an entire vision, both of modernity and modernization”

https://twitter.com/musso___/status/1379078303374540804

Ma era una cazzata :

(1) “It is only viable, if it is actually vindicated by growth, if the vincolo externo does not become self-strangulation and if the resulting frustration does not spill over into political delegitimization. That is the scenario that Draghi faces today”

(2) “The so-called vincolo esterno, they was hoped, would constrain indiscipline and drive domestic reform. Thirty years on, where does the wager stand? The data tell a grim story. Rather than converging, Italy’s GDP per capita has fallen away from that of its European peers”

I motivi li conosciamo. Tooze cita Baccaro e D’Antoni : “the fiscal squeeze and wage compression clearly undeniably had the effect of smothering domestic demand, particularly as they were continued into the early 2000s”
mpifg.de/pu/dp_abstract…

Contra, cita il cugino di Paolo Gentiloni Silveri Regalailmare. Un babbeo che dice che non abbiamo fatto abbastanza #riformeh

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Poi cita pure due simpatici inglesi, che danno del babbeo alla razza dei Regalailmare : a Giuliano Amato, ad esempio, “Giuliano Amato (who later became Italy’s Prime Minister) had seen the euro as a means of dispersing German monetary power”

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…

Per poi concludere : “at its heart is the efficacy and legitimacy of the eurozone’s policy rules. The switch from a belief in the benefits of a vincolo esterno to a ‘nemico esterno’ stems from the sense of an ill-fitting policy and an unaccountable process”

“Garnering the support of those disaffected from the old party formations means battling against the established elite paradigms. The shift in the Italian mindset no doubt also reflects a change in the country’s self-identity ...

... The period Carli described was one where Rome felt a vulnerability and a dependency on Brussels. Italy needed support, especially in funding, and could not countenance being excluded from a successful Europe ...

... Now, Italy is a net contributor to the EU budget in a union that is far more heterogeneous and one whose success is more questioned”

👉 NB : qui si sottintende la cosa fondamentale : Italia, oggi, non ha debito estero ed ha un avanzo estero ributtante

Così conclude Tooze, che era partito da un assunto diverso e cioè : “Viewed against the arc of Italian history, the challenge facing Draghi in 2021 is to vindicate not just his own life’s work, but that of his entire generation”

Per poi giungere a conclusioni opposte

Insomma, l’articolo di Tooze serve a dire :

- Draghi è senz’altro un Carliano
- Ma ha visto che vincolo esterno non regge
- e che Anglos sono contro
- e che conti esteri Italia non hanno più nulla a che fare con quelli di Carli

Conclusione inespressa : Adieu👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻

Fra le righe, dice pure che draghi conosce benissimo come forzare il risparmio italiano a sostegno del Btp (lui usa l’espressione “techniques of financialization”, ma il riferimento bibliografico 👇 è inequivoco)

link.springer.com/chapter/10.100…

Fra le righe dice pure che il solo ritorno di Draghi non è affatto la sconfitta dei populisti (cita Invernizzi Accetti👇)

foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/04/ita…

Invernizzi Accetti lasciava a Leuro una unica chance : “Draghi’s main asset is the large influx of cash that is about to arrive in the form of the EU’s post-COVID recovery aid package”😆😂🤣
👉 Quando è finita, è finita

atlanticoquotidiano.it/quotidiano/rec…

Oh, questo articolo di @adam_tooze è importante. Perché non sono mica tanti quelli che si prendono la briga di leggere tanta letteratura su Italia (naturalmente solo in lingua inglese)
👉 Quindi verrà letto e compulsato con attenzione

https://twitter.com/musso___/status/1379086753106120704