This is COVID in Chile. It's current COVID peak is higher than it's ever been.
This is in spite of being a world leader in vaccination (among the top 5) with about 30% of population fully vaccinated.
This is in spite of tight lockdowns and border closures, with eyes wide open to the risk Brazil's epidemic creates for the rest of South America.reuters.com/article/us-hea…
So what's going wrong? 1. P.1 variant, spreading from Brazil is spreading in Chile 2. Fast vaccination still doesn't mean herd immunity 3. Not all vaccines may be the same ->
Chile is relying heavily on the CoronaVac (Sinovac) like Brazil. This is a whole, killed viral vaccine. It does not include the fancy Proline-Proline change that makes Pfizer/Moderna/Novavax/J&J make Spike proteins the shape they take on infecting a cell. This might matter.
The P-P (proline-proline amino acid change which forms a sturdy bend unlike other wiggly amino acids) comes from work on earlier MERS vaccines and may really be the reason why some vaccines work better against variants than others. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Although Chile is leading the world in per capita daily vaccinations and there are questions about CoronaVac, the impact of any vaccine campaign won't be felt until rates are higher
Israel once led the world in per capita vaccinations and new cases as it tackled a B.1.1.7 surge
Mexico saw an O2 tank shortage. Black markets + overpricing affected supply.
According to a NYT report, “part of the reason why so many people are dying now, doctors and government officials say, is shortages: there simply are not enough oxygen tanks.” mexicobusiness.news/health/news/ox…
Rwanda, where peaks have been tight and controlled quickly, is on the upswing. Most of its peak mirror Kenya's with a slight lag.
Malawi also faced a steep surge in cases following South Africa's B.1.351 triggered wave.
Although countries like Malawi have controlled surge after B.1.351 spread through South Africa and the region, there's still a problem here. Although the best vaccine is a vaccine in the arm, not all vaccines are quite the same.
The B.1.351 variant has also created waves in Southern and East Africa, as countries face new peaks. Kenya is currently facing this COVID Loch Ness monster.
Ebola resurgence can happen well after transmission is controlled
Ebola virus can last in semen, perhaps up to 2 years. Ebola after recovery likely waxes and wanes in some in immunologically protected areas(testes, also eyes) leading to sexual transmission cdc.gov/media/releases…
In July 2015, there was a death from Ebola in Liberia after transmission had been halted. Many theories raised then, including sexual transmission but also zoonotic transmission from meat rather than from bats or standard reservoirs thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Most sexual transmission has been associated with male partners and semen. It is not thought that female partners transmit the virus. cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/tran…
The longer we let COVID simmer, the longer it has to not just a) cause badness for us b) develop variants that spread and cause more badness but c) find an animal host that will make it a lot harder for it to go away