Rwanda, where peaks have been tight and controlled quickly, is on the upswing. Most of its peak mirror Kenya's with a slight lag.
Malawi also faced a steep surge in cases following South Africa's B.1.351 triggered wave.
Although countries like Malawi have controlled surge after B.1.351 spread through South Africa and the region, there's still a problem here. Although the best vaccine is a vaccine in the arm, not all vaccines are quite the same.
South Africa acted prudently in assessing the AstraZeneca data on B.1.351 efficacy and halting its planned AZ vaccine plan and buying up Johnson&Johnson nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
These unused vaccines were sold and then distributed by the AU. COVAX has also relied on the AstraZeneca for vaccine roll outs in the region.
But we cannot overlook this graph, AZ vs placebo for B.1.351
Vaccine equity needs to at front and center in planning to tackle COVID, but equity needs to incorporate an appreciation of the benefits of each vaccine in each geographic location. AZ may not have the impact we would like in areas where B.1.351 has spread.
Meanwhile Pfizer shows an excellent response against B.1.351
Mexico saw an O2 tank shortage. Black markets + overpricing affected supply.
According to a NYT report, “part of the reason why so many people are dying now, doctors and government officials say, is shortages: there simply are not enough oxygen tanks.” mexicobusiness.news/health/news/ox…
The B.1.351 variant has also created waves in Southern and East Africa, as countries face new peaks. Kenya is currently facing this COVID Loch Ness monster.
This is COVID in Chile. It's current COVID peak is higher than it's ever been.
This is in spite of being a world leader in vaccination (among the top 5) with about 30% of population fully vaccinated.
This is in spite of tight lockdowns and border closures, with eyes wide open to the risk Brazil's epidemic creates for the rest of South America.reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Ebola resurgence can happen well after transmission is controlled
Ebola virus can last in semen, perhaps up to 2 years. Ebola after recovery likely waxes and wanes in some in immunologically protected areas(testes, also eyes) leading to sexual transmission cdc.gov/media/releases…
In July 2015, there was a death from Ebola in Liberia after transmission had been halted. Many theories raised then, including sexual transmission but also zoonotic transmission from meat rather than from bats or standard reservoirs thelancet.com/journals/lanre…
Most sexual transmission has been associated with male partners and semen. It is not thought that female partners transmit the virus. cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/tran…
The longer we let COVID simmer, the longer it has to not just a) cause badness for us b) develop variants that spread and cause more badness but c) find an animal host that will make it a lot harder for it to go away