Haven't seen the data behind this yet, but this would be devastating.
Bear in mind that in the dismal 2019 defeat, Labour comfortably held Hartlepool with 38% to the Tories’ 29%. And in 2017 (also under Corbyn) by 53% to 34%.
Bear in mind that in the dismal 2019 defeat, Labour comfortably held Hartlepool with 38% to the Tories’ 29%. And in 2017 (also under Corbyn) by 53% to 34%.
The worst Labour has previously done in Hartlepool in the last 25 years was in the 2004 by-election (while Blair was leader, a year after the Iraq war) when the majority was reduced to 6.5 percentage points.
And before that in 1983 (under Foot) when Labour won by 6.3 points
And before that in 1983 (under Foot) when Labour won by 6.3 points
Data up at midnight ... CWU commissioned @Survation poll of the constituency
https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1379194274739331074?s=20
These are the figures - 7 point Tory lead
HEALTH WARNING: This is just one poll and constituency polling is notoriously tricky to get right ...
HEALTH WARNING: This is just one poll and constituency polling is notoriously tricky to get right ...
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1379207956038836234?s=20
Now this is interesting (to a policy bod like me anyway) and unsurprising
Socialist policies remain popular in working class seats:
Socialist policies remain popular in working class seats:
https://twitter.com/liamyoung/status/1379208239942922242?s=20
Full data here: survation.com/first-hartlepo…
Don't underestimate Labour's ground operation, which is the party's advantage - especially with a larger membership.
The party has been written off in by-elections before and won them ...
The party has been written off in by-elections before and won them ...
For example in the winter of 2015, a few months after Corbyn became leader, there was a by-election in Oldham West.
Pollsters predicted Labour would lose and the people of Oldham, "They hate Corbyn" ...
Labour won with its highest ever share of the vote
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Pollsters predicted Labour would lose and the people of Oldham, "They hate Corbyn" ...
Labour won with its highest ever share of the vote
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Again in 2019, there was a by-election in Peterborough. Labour gained the seat in 2017 but then the MP had been convicted of perverting the course of justice
Peterborough had voted for Brexit. Labour mobilised and held the seat - increasing its share of the vote and the majority
Peterborough had voted for Brexit. Labour mobilised and held the seat - increasing its share of the vote and the majority
The question is whether - mostly due to the coronavirus restrictions - Labour can mobilise the same sort of ground operation in Hartlepool in the next month ...
... And of course, there's a long way to go - a week is a long time in politics
... And of course, there's a long way to go - a week is a long time in politics
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