New cases surged passed 100,000 a day -- over 103,790 new cases on Sunday -- more than the previous peak to be the highest number of daily cases recorded since the pandemic began.
"The extraordinary rise of the cases in the last few days has alarmed the government and scientific community, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to hold a high level meeting of all concerned ministries and officers of the COVID-19 task force.
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"In a tweet, the prime minister said he "reiterated the importance of the five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour, and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic".
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"He also directed all states to take necessary steps and impose the required restrictions to contain the outbreak
"Under Mr Modi's direction, teams from the federal government consisting of health specialists and clinicians have been sent to some states.
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With an increase in daily cases to a record 57,704 cases, Maharashtra, which includes the financial capital, Mumbai, announced new restrictions from today:
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"Only people involved in essential services would be allowed to move around and work. All markets except essential shops will remain shut. Schools, colleges, educational institutions, malls, spas, gymnasiums and restaurants will remain closed.
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"...with a complete lockdown during weekends."
In the Nagpur district of Maharashtra, there is now a shortage of Intensive Care Unit beds in hospitals.
"Videos on social media showed COVID-19 patients sharing beds at the Government Medical College Hospital in Nagpur.
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Other states like Punjab, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, with a large number of cases, also imposed restrictions.
Dr VK Paul, member of government's COVID-19 task force: "the whole country is potentially at risk and therefore all efforts to contain and save lives should be taken"
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States where the cases have started to go up and should take strong action fast to prevent further increases.
Elimination can be achieved quickly in these states.
These states are at elimination with attention to case finding, contact tracing, isolation and quarantines and travel restrictions from states where transmission is still present.
Many of these are in North East India, along with Assam they could establish a large green zone.
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New Updates (03/30) of our rough projections for
CA, FL, AZ, GA, MI, MA, PA, IN, NC, TX, LA.
They are continuing to track with new week of data.
Side by side figures for 03/23 and 03/30:
CA now at minimum
FL beginning to go up (last week at minimum)
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AZ and GA also starting to go up.
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MI rapid increase is continuing as projected. Note the axis had to be extended upwards (previous scale went up to 4,000, current one is up to 6,000 per day)!
MA is extending its increase. The projection suggests the slope will continue to increase.
Zero Covid: 42 times fewer deaths and five times less contraction in GDP
"Paris, April 2, 2021: The Zero Covid strategy is by far the most effective way to fight the current pandemic.
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"In an original analysis released today, the Institut économique Molinari compares the G10 countries to three OECD countries that have implemented an elimination strategy (Australia and New Zealand) or something similar (South Korea).
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"After a Covid-19 fight lasting more than 12 months, the data show the value of the elimination strategy and contradict the idea, that it was necessary to choose between protecting the economy and protecting public health on the grounds that these two goals were in conflict.
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During much of this pandemic articles have been written about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). However, for diseases where multiple infections are possible, the single infection fatality rate is not an indicator of fatality...
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..rates because deaths accumulate from multiple infections of an individual.
The reasons that multiple infections may occur even though there is a standard model of immunity after infection are:
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(1) the disease is defeated by the innate rather than the adaptive immune system so no change in the immune capability arises from the infection
(2) mutations of the virus occur that reduce the effectiveness of immunity
(3) decay of memory of the adaptive immune system
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