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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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3 Apr, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Far from being over, the number of cases of COVID is rapidly increasing and approaching its previous peak.

1/
The pandemic is currently at its worst right now in many countries.

2/
The Philippines: 12,576 new cases, and positivity at record high 24%.

Ukraine: 20,341 new cases, and 396 new deaths.

Turkey: 44,756 new cases.

Chile: 8,112 new cases.

All are largest one-day increases on record.

3/
The date of opening of the trans-Tasman Bubble (quarantine-free travel between Australia and New Zealand) is expected to be announced on Tuesday. Airlines have started bringing back staff.

4/
stuff.co.nz/business/indus…
Note, when #ZeroCovid countries open up quarantine-free travel, the only partners they're willing to entertain are other #ZeroCovid countries.

Getting vaccinated "doesn't count".

Want to visit Australia? Or Taiwan?

"Get your country to zero cases, then we'll talk."

5/
Thanks @geekblake for helping prepare today's update.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
India: Strong but late action

New cases surged passed 100,000 a day -- over 103,790 new cases on Sunday -- more than the previous peak to be the highest number of daily cases recorded since the pandemic began.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19… ImageImage
"The extraordinary rise of the cases in the last few days has alarmed the government and scientific community, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to hold a high level meeting of all concerned ministries and officers of the COVID-19 task force.

2/
"In a tweet, the prime minister said he "reiterated the importance of the five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour, and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic".

3/
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
UK Variant in the US leading to much higher reported infections among children.

Children under 10 as well as 10-19.

COVID-19 cases spike in Michigan, fueled by infections among kids

cbsnews.com/news/covid-mic… via @CBSHealth
And in Chicago:

Children now playing 'huge role' in spread of COVID-19 variant, expert says

abc7chicago.com/health/kids-no… via @ABC7Chicago
It was a mistake to open schools.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
5 Apr
Portugal is at about 420 cases per day.

The decrease has slowed recently because of a partial reopening.

Let's review success based on a strong lockdown and non-essential travel restrictions between municipalities.

Many municipalities have controled their outbreaks

1/ Image
Here are the region by region relative fire plots.

Impressive progress toward elimination

2/ ImageImageImageImage
Next set:

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Apr
New Updates (03/30) of our rough projections for
CA, FL, AZ, GA, MI, MA, PA, IN, NC, TX, LA.

They are continuing to track with new week of data.

Side by side figures for 03/23 and 03/30:

CA now at minimum
FL beginning to go up (last week at minimum)

1/
AZ and GA also starting to go up.

2/
MI rapid increase is continuing as projected. Note the axis had to be extended upwards (previous scale went up to 4,000, current one is up to 6,000 per day)!

MA is extending its increase. The projection suggests the slope will continue to increase.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Apr
Zero Covid: 42 times fewer deaths and five times less contraction in GDP

"Paris, April 2, 2021: The Zero Covid strategy is by far the most effective way to fight the current pandemic.

/1
"In an original analysis released today, the Institut économique Molinari compares the G10 countries to three OECD countries that have implemented an elimination strategy (Australia and New Zealand) or something similar (South Korea).

2/
"After a Covid-19 fight lasting more than 12 months, the data show the value of the elimination strategy and contradict the idea, that it was necessary to choose between protecting the economy and protecting public health on the grounds that these two goals were in conflict.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Apr
Comment on the Infection Fatality Rate:

During much of this pandemic articles have been written about the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). However, for diseases where multiple infections are possible, the single infection fatality rate is not an indicator of fatality...

1/
..rates because deaths accumulate from multiple infections of an individual.

The reasons that multiple infections may occur even though there is a standard model of immunity after infection are:

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(1) the disease is defeated by the innate rather than the adaptive immune system so no change in the immune capability arises from the infection

(2) mutations of the virus occur that reduce the effectiveness of immunity

(3) decay of memory of the adaptive immune system

3/
Read 6 tweets

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