A sort of milestone was reached today.

The total value of all cryptos surpassed the value of the US banking system.

Why is this measure relevant? It is an admittedly imperfect attempt to measure the size of the current CeFi system versus the coming DeFi system.

So sticking with this idea, what's next?

Another double and cryptos becomes larger than US Financial Companies (Banks + brokers, insurance, exch, fin cos, asset managers, etc.)

4x rise and Cryptos surpass the value of all global financial companies.

What has driven cryptos to surpass the value of banks? It has been an altcoin rally this year, and especially the last few weeks (bottom panel)

As this chart shows, altcoins are near a two year high as a percent of the total universe.

The same chart as 3/4 but back to the beginning of data.

Altcoins reached 70% of the universe in 2018 (mainly ETH). Then the bubble popped.

This measure suggests altcoins are not overdone relative to bitcoin. Or ETH/DeFi has room to go.


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More from @biancoresearch

29 Mar
Powell and Yellen are dismissive of cryptos/DeFi. Dalio thinks it could be banned. Singer/Buffett think it's dangerous.

I fear all of this could lead to the US "sitting this out" as the rest of the world designs a new financial system. This would be a huge mistake ...

3B+ people in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America that would happily embrace a DeFi as the world standard.

But can they?

The number of mobile phone subscriptions in these countries is more than 1 per person, similar to the US/Europe.

They have the tool.

And they have no problem accessing services on these phones.

Americans have little idea how much better service is in the rest of the world, including much of the 3rd world.

The US is 27th in mobile download speeds, 95th in upload speeds


Read 8 tweets
25 Mar
By their nature, cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) are decentralized and permissionless. We are not sure how they would be ‘outlawed’, as Dalio describes in this story.


His example of gold being banned was only possible because of the government’s centralized system. Governments could ban the exchange of fiat for cryptocurrencies, but the DeFi system is being built to work on its own merit, with no ties to fiat.

Furthermore, countries that attempt to outlaw cryptocurrencies would risk their seat at the table. As the chart below shows, crypto adoption is highest among impoverished nations, lowest in the developed world.

Read 6 tweets
12 Mar
Some COVID charts

The US continues to plunge from its January 8 peak.

Vaccinations, % of population (as of Mar 11)
First dose, 19%
Fully vaccinated, 10.2%

Worldwide, cases might be bottoming

Vaccinations, % of population (as of Mar 11)
First dose, Less than 1%
Fully vaccinated, 0.2%

Israel leads the world with 44% fully vaccinated, and its case counts continues to plunge

Read 4 tweets
28 Feb
Tell me what is right/wrong here:

The US Crypto exchanges allow USD trading so they also have to adhere to AML and KYC rules.

So, this prevents US crypto accounts from seeing or understand DeFi's potential. US can access it via a wallet (metamask), but this is hard!

Coinbase … no ADA, BNB, USDT (NY), and XRP. No DeFi, limited farming, margin trading just started (in 12 states, no NY), no perpetual futures. etc.

I'm not endorsing doing any of this. But blocking prevents the US from "getting it."

So US thinks "Crypto" means gambling on BTC and shitcoins (DOGE) and constantly ask what is the potential/use case. This comes from being in the dark.

1 day (years from now) we are going to wake it and realized we have been passed by. Regs are putting us at a disadvantage.
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
No this is not a month old story, this is happening AGAIN today.

$GME is getting squeezed all over again. It was trading $43 earlier today and tonight, after hours, it just traded $200!

Which hedge fund(s) is getting squeezed on their "re-short?" Same as last time? Image
It looks like the meme stock squeezed was so much fun we are going to do it all over again ... AMC is up 60% from this morning's low. Image
All the meme stocks are going ballistic tonight
Koss is up 200% since this morning (I think the last trade is a bad tick)

Express (EXPR) has nearly doubled. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
15 Feb
Quick rant ...

What's wrong with politics? It is not red or blue. It is elderly versus not-elderly.

For 100 years the average age in the Senate (more so) and the House (less so) was fairly stable. But over the last 40 years the average age has sky rocketed.

If gets worse

Boomers (57-75) and the Silent Generation (76+) are WAY over-represented compared to their share of the wealth and population (noted on chart).

Generation X (41 to 56) and Millennials (26 to 40) are relatively under-represented.

Ditto the House
Tech is generational and it is disrupting lives/business, both good/bad. How we use/regulate this tech is THE ISSUE moving forward. It folds into equality, climate and nearly everything else.

Our elderly leaders are not capable of understanding this.

Read 4 tweets

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