Thread by @deeksj

@drdavideyre isn't the 89.5% figure based on the samples in symptomatic index cases taken at the test-and-trace centre? So this shows how good the test works in those who attend test-and-trace with symptoms? Pretty good idea to use them there.

https://twitter.com/drdavideyre/status/1379085356700602375

Using this test (or better ones) backed with PCR in test-and-trace centres could revolutionize contact tracing- if people get their results and meet with an infection control team before they leave the centre we will be moving everything forward 3 days. Add in financial help too.

But how well they work in mass testing or contacts will depend on the distribution of viral loads in these groups - which I cannot see that you have any data on in this paper. The Cochrane review showed sensitivity much lower in those without symptoms.

cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.10…

There is much greater chance that viral loads will be lower when people without symptoms are tested, which means more people will be missed, including those who are infectious. Do you have any data from these groups?

(would also be really helpful if your graphics in this paper reported the observed data as well as the fitted model, like this previous figure from PHE - we will then properly be able to understand the uncertainty in the estimates - could you get it added? Its part of STARD).