The fact that COVID-19 first broke out in a city housing one of the world's few high-level labs engaged in bat coronavirus research means a lab leak necessarily must be on the list of possible origins until it's conclusively refuted, regardless what theoretical arguments are made
The CDC current says that 15% to 70% of COVID-19 cases may be asymptomatic, with a best guess of 30% (deets below)
So if there was a lab leak, there is a meaningful chance that the leak would have been unknown to the lab or the individual(s) who may have been a vector
To hit a 2% of GDP target for US federal R&D spending (i.e., same as peak of space race) would require annual $ increases of:
30%-->2026
18%-->2030
13%-->2035
10%-->2040
US federal R&D $ has been more or less constant as a % of domestic discretionary spending for >40 years
Data @aaas@MattHourihan
Meaningful increases in R&D $ > increases in domestic disc $ would represent the most significant change in US R&D OVERALL budget policy in a half century
So key to watch is if federal spending increases dramatically overall, cause R&D ain't gonna eat someone else's lunch
A Biden OSTP investigation of Trump OSTP and agencies is fine, let's learn lessons ... but it should not come at the expense of pushing forward scientific integrity legislation such as led by @RepPaulTonko
You might remember late last year a study was published arguing that hurricanes were staying stronger, longer over land, looking at 1967-2018
Headlines followed ...
New study looks at a longer time period-1900-2019-finds over the period of record that storms are actually weakening faster (non-sig downward trend), even after removing outliers
"There is no significant linear trend throughout the whole 120-year period"
Tropical cyclones in Hong Kong region 1885-2017
"The reconstructed series of TCs from 1885 to 2017 indicated an apparent decreasing trend accompanied by obvious inter-annual to multi-decadal variability." link.springer.com/article/10.100…
From the same paper, TC landfalls in China 1884-2016
"the number of TCs affecting southern China coastal zone and the TC-caused precipitation in China mainland has actually decreased over the last 5–6 decades"
From the same paper, TC landfalls in Japan 1900-2014
"both the trends of annual TCs in Japan and affecting HK during the past 110 years plus showed a similar decrease (−0.08 and −0.11 TC/10 years, respectively)"