Tropical cyclones in Hong Kong region 1885-2017
"The reconstructed series of TCs from 1885 to 2017 indicated an apparent decreasing trend accompanied by obvious inter-annual to multi-decadal variability."
link.springer.com/article/10.100… Image
From the same paper, TC landfalls in China 1884-2016
"the number of TCs affecting southern China coastal zone and the TC-caused precipitation in China mainland has actually decreased over the last 5–6 decades" Image
From the same paper, TC landfalls in Japan 1900-2014
"both the trends of annual TCs in Japan and affecting HK during the past 110 years plus showed a similar decrease (−0.08 and −0.11 TC/10 years, respectively)" Image
Bottom line: "They support the previous findings that the TC frequency in Western Pacific has not increased under the background of global warming since the late nineteenth century."

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

18 Mar
Short 🧵

You might remember late last year a study was published arguing that hurricanes were staying stronger, longer over land, looking at 1967-2018

Headlines followed ... Image
New study looks at a longer time period-1900-2019-finds over the period of record that storms are actually weakening faster (non-sig downward trend), even after removing outliers

"There is no significant linear trend throughout the whole 120-year period"

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10… Image
But fear not

By looking at 15 data points since 1980 an upwards trend can still be claimed

Where would hurricanes & climate change discussions be without analyses that start in 1980? Whew ;-) Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Mar
Reminder
I'm giving the Regius Lecture in Political Science one hour from now
Here is a short 🧵with some slides from my talk to whet your interest ...
My focus is on "following the science?" and will focus on COIVD-19, science advice and @EScAPE_Covid19
Among things I'll discuss is the lack of US preparation for the pandemic in the context of science advice, including data ... as this jaw-dropping revelation from @alexismadrigal @yayitsrob reveals
Read 5 tweets
16 Mar
Over a decade, the creators of the RCP scenarios warned against using RCP8.5 as a "reference" scenario for the other RCPs (figure left)

This advice was ignored, with at least 5,800 papers doing exactly that (figure right)

So too do various reports of the IPCC & USNCA
There is of course no problem using RCP8.5 in research

However, we should all be clear that it has no relation to the planet that we live on, Earth, past, present or future

I propose we rename RCP8.5 as Tatooine so that it is abundantly clear that it is a fictional world
In fact, it is not just RCP8.5 that is problematic

Key aspects of the real world (Earth) are rapidly departing from the imagined worlds of the RCP/SSP universe

Consider coal consumption, for instance
Read 5 tweets
14 Mar
🧵Since daylight savings time just went into effect here in CO (but not in AZ), my talk Monday is at ...

2PM in Tempe AZ
3PM Boulder
5PM Washington, DC
9PM London
10PM Berlin
6AM (Tues) Tokyo
8AM (Tues) Sydney
10AM (Tues) Auckland

Zoom link below and some preview slides follow
Title slide Image
To avoid any confusion Image
Read 5 tweets
6 Mar
Welcome new followers🙏

I can't promise you'll agree with everything I write
In fact, I can guarantee you won't

I welcome your thoughtful engagement

Warning: Immediate muting of name callers, misrepresenters etc
sorry/not sorry

Plz follow my newsletter
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
My next 2 newsletter topics

➡️transgender athletes
➡️vaccine hesitancy

One/both may get you worked up
So long as they make you think, that's OK

The goal of engagement is not agreement but a respectful exchange of ideas that makes everyone smarter & more understanding of others
Want to know my politics?

Label me a socialist/globalist/elitist & I wouldn't disagree
Fully reject politics of MAGA, populism, scientific authoritarianism

I'm a policy expert with highly nuanced views on some topics that don't easily fit into simple political bins
Deal with it
Read 4 tweets
4 Mar
🧵Via Chetty et al 2020 opportunityinsights.org/paper/undermat…

Family incomes of Univ of Colorado System students in these distributions of income:

Top 25%= 58% of students
Top 10%= 41%
Top 5% = 28%
Top 1% = 8%

If this is actually System (all 4 campuses) then CU Boulder is even more skewed
Of 1191 public universities in the Chettey et al 2020 database, only the University of Michigan has a greater proportion of rich students than does Univ of Colorado

Likely why CUB has (tie for) lowest average debt at graduation among PAC-12 schools
brookings.edu/opinions/biden…
At the same time, CU Boulder has the fewest Pell Grant recipients among PAC-12 schools
Read 4 tweets

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