In 2009, @BGurley bet on $AMZN in his PA because he saw the potential of AWS:

"it was obvious they were winning. You could see it in the number of startups that were building on their platform and that were adding to their platform"…
"Many are quick to point out that only small businesses and rogue developers in large organizations are using AWS. This is exactly how these markets develop. Amazon is selling to the innovators and early adopters — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm.
"First, as a “retailer” Amazon was comfortable running a low-margin business."

"The second piece of the strategy leverages the company’s prowess in customer support ... They would have the best developer relations attitude and execution in the business."
"No cloud platform vendor is more communicative and more of a “listener” than Amazon"

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More from @NeckarValue

8 Apr
“Investing With Keynes”

"After losing 80% of his net worth in the '29 crash, he “switched from market timer to value investor, seeking to profit from swings in the market rather than participating in them.”…
Focus on intrinsic value (projected earnings)
Margin of safety
Think for yourself and be contrarian if necessary
"Steadfast holding" to limit transaction costs
Concentrate in a few great companies
Right temperament, balancing “equanimity and patience” with decisiveness. Image
"During his 25 years running the King’s College endowment, he generated an annual return of 16%, adapting his investment style to flourish even during the Great Depression and World War II." Image
Read 12 tweets
7 Apr
This was me, one year ago. After years in allocator seats, I joined a friend who was spinning out to set up his own fund. Strong team, track record, locked-up capital.

It was so much harder than I expected it to be.
First off: I was so enamored with the idea of helping to build something that I overruled my gut. I knew I wasn't a good fit for a sales role.
My friends know I'm more comfortable in the basement of the NY Public Library than bantering with a group of strangers. It is what it is.
Bad idea. Shortly after COVID hit I was let go.

I was angry. Resentful. But in the back of my mind I knew that I hadn't been a good fit.

Today I can see the positive that came out of it.
Read 16 tweets
6 Apr
"Most people have the brain power - almost everybody has the brain power to make money in the stock market. The question is whether you have the stomach for it. Whether you're willing to do a little bit of work. Those are the key elements. It's not that hard." Peter Lynch
"You can never predict the economy, you can't predict the stock market. But when you look at Dunkin' Donuts, you say 'they're the best donut chain.' You don't have to worry about Korean imports or what's happening with M1."
"You have to be very careful. Some stocks in the next 20 years, a lot of money is going to be made. A lot of money is going to be lost. People that gamble, that buy options. What a tragedy if you're right on a company and you have a three month option on, or a six month option."
Read 6 tweets
6 Apr
John Templeton, when told that academics believing in efficient markets considered his fundamental analysis to be worthless: "That's just resigning from the game. If you take the game of tennis: exactly as many loses as winners. But that's no reason to give up playing tennis."
"The thing that people need to learn is that selecting assets is totally different from almost every other activity.

If you go to 10 doctors and they tell you to the same medicine - that's the thing to take.
You go to 10 engineers to build a bridge and they tell you the same thing - that's the thing to do.

But you go to 10 investment advisors and they pick out the same asset. You better stay away from it."
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
Munger the ruler: leverage is how you go broke.

Munger the conqueror: leverage is how I'll get rich.

(Doesn't mean his advice isn't generally right.)
Munger Partnership
"Munger at one point had almost 84% of his assets in two stocks, Blue Chip Stamps and New America Fund. By employing leverage, Charlie was able to vastly amplify the potential gains if the prices of these two businesses went up."…
"Munger did enormous trades like B.C. Power, which was being taken over. He put all the money he had and all that he could borrow into an arbitrage on this single stock-but only because there was almost no chance that this deal would fall apart."…
Read 7 tweets
3 Apr
Peter Lynch on the biggest mistake investors make:

"They don't know what they own. They do more research on a microwave oven and buy based on a tip they heard on the bus. They buy into the potential of something. They hear a terrific story."
"I find when you hear that [story], you just have to black out. You have to think of a movie you went to recently because the stories are very appealing."
"The public is very careful with their money when they buy a dishwasher or a TV set, when they rent an apartment. When it comes to the stock market, for some reason they just don't do any work."
Read 9 tweets

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