“Investing With Keynes”

"After losing 80% of his net worth in the '29 crash, he “switched from market timer to value investor, seeking to profit from swings in the market rather than participating in them.”

wsj.com/articles/inves…
Focus on intrinsic value (projected earnings)
Margin of safety
Think for yourself and be contrarian if necessary
"Steadfast holding" to limit transaction costs
Concentrate in a few great companies
Right temperament, balancing “equanimity and patience” with decisiveness.
"During his 25 years running the King’s College endowment, he generated an annual return of 16%, adapting his investment style to flourish even during the Great Depression and World War II."
Where is the book about fortunes made during wars and revolutions?
46 page slide deck: "The Investment Wisdom of John Maynard Keynes"

cfasociety.org/westmichigan/P…
And @austinvalue's put together a compilation with his presentations at the National Mutual Life Assurance Society where he served as Chairman

"Keynes was a considerable influence on the investment philosophy of Yale’s David Swensen"

"Keynes came to appreciate the futility of market timing when he failed to profit from such tactics during the stock market crash of 1929."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Keynes managed the endowment from 1921 until 1946. His appreciation equities for long-horizon investors proved to be his great investment innovation"

"Keynes’s value focus evolved independently. Our searches revealed no indication of contact with Graham on this subject"
“His (Keynes) portfolios were idiosyncratic and approach unconventional. He was a leader among institutional investors in making a substantial allocation to the new asset class, equities"

cfasociety.org/westmichigan/P…
"Two of the greatest investors of all time, Benjamin Graham and John Maynard Keynes, were both nearly wiped out after taking on too much debt."

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
"Graham’s investment fund lost 70% of its value. Graham had recently leased a swanky duplex in Manhattan"

"Keynes faced margin calls. His largest equity position, Austin Motors, shed three-quarters of its value. His net worth dropped 80% from its peak a couple of years earlier."
"The truth is that Keynes loved to play the markets."

“The game of professional investment is intolerably boring and over-exacting to anyone who is entirely exempt from the gambling instinct, whilst he who has it must pay to this propensity the appropriate toll."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Frederik 'Neckar'

Frederik 'Neckar' Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NeckarValue

10 Apr
Ray Dalio in 2000, on the history of predicting the future:
"most people who experienced consistent reinforcement for 10 years were inclined to believe that this would continue indefinitely"

academia.edu/33406891/Bridg… Image
"At the end of the 60’s I remember most believed that managing an economy is like managing most things, we get better at it with time; it is why we could expect even lower volatility in the future.

This view was held just prior to the one of the most volatile decades ever."
"I feel my understanding of the world economy is reasonably intimate going back to the 1920’s, meaning that I believe that I have both an intellectual and visceral sense of what they were like."

"I have learned that dramatic change is the norm and to doubt the new era theories."
Read 10 tweets
9 Apr
For the history nerds: the American Archive of Public Broadcasting has old episodes of Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week.
As I understand, watching the video is only possible with a US IP address.
americanarchive.org/special_collec…
Peter Lynch, June 1980: "I think the biggest mistake is investors don't know what they own."
americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aa…
Posted quotes from Lynch's different appearances here:
Read 12 tweets
9 Apr
Jeff Bezos on decision making:
If a decision is consequential and (nearly) irreversible: analyze carefully, wait to get more information.

If the decision can be reversed or is inconsequential: decide quickly and don't let it kill your momentum.
s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/file… Image
I tell myself as I agonize for weeks about a new logo or changing my avatar
"The biggest risk to irreversible decisions is deciding before you need to. The biggest risk to reversible ones is waiting until the last minute.
Make reversible decisions as soon as possible and irreversible decisions as late as possible."
@ShaneAParrish
fs.blog/2018/04/revers… Image
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr
This was me, one year ago. After years in allocator seats, I joined a friend who was spinning out to set up his own fund. Strong team, track record, locked-up capital.

It was so much harder than I expected it to be.
First off: I was so enamored with the idea of helping to build something that I overruled my gut. I knew I wasn't a good fit for a sales role.
My friends know I'm more comfortable in the basement of the NY Public Library than bantering with a group of strangers. It is what it is.
Bad idea. Shortly after COVID hit I was let go.

I was angry. Resentful. But in the back of my mind I knew that I hadn't been a good fit.

Today I can see the positive that came out of it.
Read 16 tweets
6 Apr
In 2009, @BGurley bet on $AMZN in his PA because he saw the potential of AWS:

"it was obvious they were winning. You could see it in the number of startups that were building on their platform and that were adding to their platform"

abovethecrowd.com/2009/06/08/ama…
"Many are quick to point out that only small businesses and rogue developers in large organizations are using AWS. This is exactly how these markets develop. Amazon is selling to the innovators and early adopters — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm.
"First, as a “retailer” Amazon was comfortable running a low-margin business."

"The second piece of the strategy leverages the company’s prowess in customer support ... They would have the best developer relations attitude and execution in the business."
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
"Most people have the brain power - almost everybody has the brain power to make money in the stock market. The question is whether you have the stomach for it. Whether you're willing to do a little bit of work. Those are the key elements. It's not that hard." Peter Lynch
"You can never predict the economy, you can't predict the stock market. But when you look at Dunkin' Donuts, you say 'they're the best donut chain.' You don't have to worry about Korean imports or what's happening with M1."
"You have to be very careful. Some stocks in the next 20 years, a lot of money is going to be made. A lot of money is going to be lost. People that gamble, that buy options. What a tragedy if you're right on a company and you have a three month option on, or a six month option."
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!