Since the GOP is trying sanitize the new Georgia voting law, here are a few hard numbers to put things in a little clearer context.

The law makes the process of casting absentee ballots harder and, thus, will likely depress absentee votes.

Where were most absentee votes cast?

The five Georgia counties that had the highest percentage of the state's absentee votes cast were Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Chatham Counties.

Which also, coincidentally, made up a higher % of GA's absentee votes than it made up of GA's total votes.
2020 US Presidential Election in Georgia

Cobb County:
11.28% of GA's absentee votes
7.88% of GA's total votes

Fulton County
11.16% of GA's absentee votes
10.50% of GA's total votes
2020 US Presidential Election in Georgia

DeKalb County:
9.73% of GA's absentee votes
7.42% of GA's total votes

Gwinnett County:
9.38% of GA's absentee votes
8.28% of GA's total votes
2020 US Presidential Election in Georgia

Chatham County:
3.14% of GA's absentee votes
2.67% of GA's total votes

(I had incorrectly listed Cherokee county earlier. But Cherokee had a smaller share of absentee than total votes and so I corrected that).
Four of the five counties mentioned made up a significantly higher share of Georgia's total absentee vote than the rest of the state - in excess of 9% of Georgia's 1.3 million absentee votes cast in the 2020 election. And they're all in metro Atlanta.
It's also notable when you look at the demographics of these five counties that had the highest percentage of Georgia's absentee votes cast in the 2020 Presidential Election:

Cobb County - 28.80% black
Fulton County - 44.50% black
DeKalb County - 54.80% black
Gwinnett County - 29.80% black
Chatham County - 41.20% black
In all, 547,268 of the 1,316,943 absentee votes cast in the 2020 US Presidential Election in Georgia (41.56%) were cast by voters in Cobb, Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett Counties.

All four counties went blue not only in 2020, when Trump won GA by just 5 points, but also in 2016.
Georgia’s law bans mobile voting centers, like the units that Fulton County administered last year and which more than 11,200 Georgians used in order to cast their votes.

Not everybody has a car, easy access to public transportation or personal mobility.…
The units were run by Georgia’s most populous county, the home of the state Capitol (not secure enough, guys?) which was trying to make voting easier. But that’s the wrong answer!

The Georgia GOP doesn’t want to make voting easier. They want to make it harder.
If even a small percentage of those mobile voters in Fulton County didn’t have a chance to make it to the polls and a smaller percentage of those who voted absentee in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett had a harder time casting their ballots, the outcome would be different.
And that’s the POINT!
* Not only in 2016, when Trump won Georgia by just 5 points but also in 2020.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

7 Apr
So, in the Georgia Senate runoff election between Perdue and Ossoff in January, 2021, guess which counties had the highest PERCENTAGES of absentee votes in the state?

Cobb County - 11.77%
Fulton County - 10.34%
DeKalb County - 10.33%
Gwinnett County - 9.35%
These four heavily blue, heavily black counties in Metro Atlanta comprised 41.79% of the state’s absentee votes in that particular election.
The new law also severely limits provisional voting. Guess where that’s concentrated, percentage-wise?

Fulton - 41.89% of provisional ballots
DeKalb - 12.25%
Read 4 tweets
7 Apr
Another aspect of the Georgia changes which make absentee voting more difficult:

A decrease of just 3.25% in absentee voting alone (not any other form of voting), applied evenly across all Georgia counties (blue and red), would have reversed the winner of the 2020 GA POTUS race.
If nothing else has changed except for 3.25 out of every 100 people who voted absentee in the 2020 election not voting, with the totals from every other form of voting remaining exactly the same, Trump would have won the state by 284 votes.
If I can figure this out, and I’m basically just a random dude, you’d better believe that GOP politicians and the strategists and consultants working for them know it and in know it in more fine grained detail.
Read 5 tweets
3 Apr
Let’a take a minute to understand the broader context surrounding the new Georgia voting law. Let’s take a minute to look at the world from the perspective of a Republican politician from Georgia

It’s not a pretty place.

Indulge me for a trip down recent memory lane.
2016 - Trump wins Georgia by 5.09 points. Which sounds fine except for the fact that it’s freaking Georgia! And Romney won the state by 7.82 points just four years earlier. No need to panic, right?
2018 - Wrong! Brian Kemp wins the Governorship but by a puny 1.4 points. In the 2014 election, Nathan Deal won the Governorship by 7.8 points and THAT was close. Something’s not right.

2018 - The GOP won the Lt. Governor race by only 3.2 points (GOP won by 15.98 points in 2014).
Read 12 tweets
3 Apr
You know, if the GOP had put as much energy and effort into reaching out to black voters as they’re putting into these “election security” (voter suppression) efforts, there might not even be a nationally viable Democratic Party.
If the GOP had continued the efforts that Ken Mehlman had started back in the mid-2000s, it would have made some significant inroads with black voters. Even if they had taken their own advice in the 2012 “Autopsy” report, it would be better positioned today.
Actually trying to get people to vote for you is considerably easier than trying to pass hundreds of laws across dozens of states aimed at trying to make it harder for people to vote.

Plus, by courting votes, unlike enacting suppression laws. you don’t get your state boycotted.
Read 6 tweets
3 Apr
Which course of action do you think would have been better for the @GOP’s long term viability as a party?

A) Make serious and sustained efforts to make inroads with black voters?


B) Make a serious and sustained effort to make it harder for some of them to vote?
Put it this way. A Quinnipiac poll showed that the overwhelming majority (80%) of black voters thought Trump was racist. But he made some outreach efforts to black voters. And he did slightly better with blacks in 2020 than he did in 2016.…
Trump started his 2016 campaign by insinuating that a significant portion of Mexicans crossing the border illegally into the US were rapists. But his campaign made concerted efforts to reach out to latino voters. And he did notably better with the group in 2020 than in 2016.
Read 4 tweets
3 Apr
There are six counties in Georgia that, between the 2012 election and the 2016 election, experienced a double digit drop in voter registration despite NOT having a drop in population.

I’m not sure why this is.
Wheeler County, GA went from having 3,464 registered voters in 2012 to 2,705 registered voters in 2016 (-21.91%). The overall population slightly rose.

Lamar County, GA went from 11,649 registered voters in 2012 to 9,786 registered voters in 2016 (-15.99%). The population rose.
Catoosa County, Georgia had 41,328 registered voters in 2012 but 34,831 registered voters in 2016 (-15.72%). But the overall population rose.

Appling County, Georgia had 10,955 registered voters in 2012 but 9,242 registered voters in 2016 (-15.64%). The population slightly rose.
Read 6 tweets

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