The Canucks are a good example on how an intense focus on variants instead of the broader picture of a virus that has killed millions of people can make things more confusing for the general public
A group of 20 incredibly fit young people were quickly infected by a virus that has put them out of commission, in a province where transmission is quickly on the rise!

That's a straightforward story that's easy to understand and communicate to the public.
But a lot of that got obscured, partly because the Canucks weren't particularly transparent (leading to anecdotal and sometimes clashing reports by journalists), and partly because of the intense interest right now in some quarters to talk about the P1 variant.
So instead of a clear wake-up call to a younger demographic, we got a lot of questions and speculation, with the most recent comments by Dr. Henry saying she's not aware of P1 being part of the Canucks outbreak almost minimizing "normal" COVID.

Which should not be minimized!
There are a lot of good-faith dynamics that play into this (reporters trying to find new information, people emphasizing worst-case scenarios out of caution) and also social media dynamics that we don't need to get into.

But things we can say for certain are still important.

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More from @j_mcelroy

9 Apr
Hey folks!

Let's do a thread, with a couple of new charts, looking at where B.C. is at in the pandemic, and what we can say is very concerning, decently concerning, and not too concerning.

one might wonder who this will help at this point, but i follow the advice of the teens Image
What's very concerning?

Overall transmission.

It continues to go up, and the rolling average/active case trendline is not slowing down one bit right now.

Until it does, there's lots of worry of this getting out of control, in a way B.C. has avoided to this point. Image
Here are the daily numbers from B.C. to Quebec today, adjusted if they all had B.C.'s population:

BC: 1293
Alberta: 1570
Saskatchewan: 891
Manitoba: 514
Ontario: 1152
Quebec: 969

Collective failure in non-COVID Zero provinces (except Manitoba, for now) to prevent a 3rd wave. Image
Read 9 tweets
7 Apr
997 new cases of #COVID19 announced in B.C. today — but for the first time in three weeks, the rolling average has gone down.

However, active cases still up, people in critical care at a record 105, and two new deaths.

Today's chart. Image
After a slow long weekend, B.C. is back to its previous pace on vaccinations, with 34,040 done yesterday, as we reach the 20% mark of eligible people getting at least one shot.

The daily number can go up by a little bit with current supply, but not by too much. ImageImage
The numbers today are somewhat encouraging, within the the context of the last three weeks of #OperationDontBlowThis

But a rise in hospitalizations is inevitable for a bit because of the lag from cases.

People in critical care now up 33% in a week. Image
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
We've received new data on hospitalizations in B.C. from the week of March 21-March 27.

There were 198 new hospitalizations, and 16% of them were in people under 40.

That's the same rate as the entire pandemic.
During that week, an additional 40 people were put in critical care.

Just 1 of them was somebody under the age of 40.

This is the week right before Horgan said we were seeing a surge in cases in young people.
To be fair to anecdotes from doctors, numbers could have significantly changed in the last 10 days.

Or they could have changed by a little bit, but we're all humans and change is relative, so it could have seemed like a lot.

Or the BCCDC's numbers are wrong.

But here we are.
Read 6 tweets
7 Apr
Let me give you a brief summary of all pieces of #COVID19 data I'm looking forward to seeing today, and what they could tell us.

It will also double as a little window into my daily struggles in compiling charts for all you fine folks.
At some point this late morning or early afternoon, the BCCDC situation report will be released.

We don't know when, so it's a game of refreshing things.

From that, we'll be able to figure out hospitalization and positivity rates by age, both of which will be interesting.
Next, sometime between 3 and 4:30pm, we'll get The Daily Numbers.

You all know what's included there, and the wonderful game we play in learning when the information comes out.
Read 6 tweets
6 Apr
This was a question from @CBCtanya that the two of us put together, we told the government we would be asking about it, and it is disappointing for Dr. Henry to say things in response that are not true.
We just want accurate and up to date data on hospitalizations on young people!

I am 100% not interested in gotcha questions!

This should not be difficult!
The only age info on the BCCDC dashboard is total cases — and that hasn't been updated for 6 days.

Information on demographics of hospitalizations comes from situation reports.

if i had data showing changes in hospitalizations i would be charting it

Read 5 tweets
6 Apr
we got through the last week without any official in british columbia saying "the easter bunny's travel is essential and they have been vaccinated" and let's get our wins where we can right now
honestly feel bad for people who are incredibly angry, can't handle reporters having personalities, and have missed my reporting for months and months

Lot of valid frustration out there, 14 months of COVID fatigue makes everyone on edge, third wave full of new questions, journalists can be a proxy for anger towards politicians.

We all need to find healthy ways to get through the next couple months.

Read 4 tweets

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