Thread by @j_mcelroy

Hey folks!

Let's do a thread, with a couple of new charts, looking at where B.C. is at in the pandemic, and what we can say is very concerning, decently concerning, and not too concerning.

one might wonder who this will help at this point, but i follow the advice of the teens

What's very concerning?

Overall transmission.

It continues to go up, and the rolling average/active case trendline is not slowing down one bit right now.

Until it does, there's lots of worry of this getting out of control, in a way B.C. has avoided to this point.

Here are the daily numbers from B.C. to Quebec today, adjusted if they all had B.C.'s population:

BC: 1293
Alberta: 1570
Saskatchewan: 891
Manitoba: 514
Ontario: 1152
Quebec: 969

Collective failure in non-COVID Zero provinces (except Manitoba, for now) to prevent a 3rd wave.

What's decently concerning?

Hospitalizations.

They are up 53% in the last seven weeks.

Active ICU cases are up 63%.

Based on what we know about lag times, these will probably grow, even with people 80+ generally vaccinated now.

I continue to look for this giant explosion of hospitalizations in recent days that we've heard about in widely reported anecdotes.

They're rising, but I continue not to find it.

But I have a new chart that might show a little bit about what's going on.

I've taken numbers from six months of BCCDC situation reports to look at NEW hospitalizations and NEW ICU entries each week in B.C.

And I've taken the average of the last 12 days of new hospitalizations, and averaged them out to compare.

Here's what we find.

After steadily falling to about 150 new hospitalizations a week across B.C. and staying there for a while, we've shot up to 214 a week, averaged out to the last 12 days.

It's a substantial rise in new hospitalizations.

People can debate whether it matches the rhetoric.

In addition, in the last 12 days, 195 of the 366 new hospitalizations across B.C. have been in Fraser Health.

So it's been more concentrated there, which matches up with some media reports.

We don't have new ICU entries in the last 12 days, which could be somewhat different.

We know they've been dropped from the raw ICU total.

I asked this morning if they're still included in the raw hospitalization total, and have not gotten a response yet.

It would be nice for the government to have this information quickly.

https://twitter.com/MDrelichman/status/1380337385800540164

Finally, what's less concerning, to my eye?

Vaccine numbers.

Early on most weeks, there tends to be a lot of worry that provinces are *wasting* their supply, doing basic subtraction of doses available to administered.

But it's important to remember that B.C. said many weeks ago that they would hold a week's worth of supply (around 200,000 doses, at this point) in reserve, in case a Pfizer/Moderna shipment didn't come as planned, so bookings wouldn't be cancelled.

And it's important to remember that these percentages typically rise through the week, because new supply comes in one big glut, so the number is frequently bobbing down and back up.

Again, I'll point out if/when vaccine distribution seems to lag, but not seeing it yet.

What we can say is the countries (essentially the U.K. and Israel) where more than 50% of the eligible population has gotten at least one dose are seeing falling transmission.

B.C. won't be there for another 5-6 weeks. We've got to hold on.

Anyways, more than 5 months ago @adriandix said "It's not ending, and it's not going to end soon, and that creates its own anxiety ... everyone's really tired."

And we're more tired.

All we can do is control our own actions.

k thread over pls nobody ask me to a prom tonight