Thread by @NicoleSGrigg

🧵 INSIGHT IN ARIZONA RESPONSE: After nearly five months of waiting for a public records request, there is now insight into what was said behind the scenes, and what was said publicly during the pandemic. #COVID19

To understand this thread, we go back to the beginning. /1

Arizona state leaders had access to a modeling group, made up of more than 20 Arizona university researchers, experts in statistics, public health, projective models, and economics.

The modeling team met nearly every week since 3.30.2020.

I wanted to know what was said in these meetings between the modelers, and ADHS staffers.

So, in November I requested the notes, meetings or agendas.

Out of all the meetings, I got records for 12 different meetings.

Only the first two meetings had an agenda w/ notes, the rest of the records I was given was notes by different ADHS employees during the modeling meetings.

These notes will help paint a picture of what was being said internally, when it was being said, and then what was said publicly.

Remember, these are 'notes' from the ADHS employees on what was said in these meetings w/ modeling team.

Lets start in May, where for the first time, we see the concerns made about unemployment and Arizonans ending up on 'public' insurance.

"..we talked more extensively about the lag between unemployment, loss of healthcare coverage and access to healthcare, and a rise in...

..applications for public insurance."

June 4: concerns were made about the pressure on AHCCCS. "There is likely to be a very sizable spike in the number of persons without health coverage in AZ due to these trends in unemployment and AHCCCS enrollment."

This means state will have to pay.

JUNE 4: this would be nearly 3 weeks after Governor Ducey ends stay at home order on May 15.

Notes show THEN that data was showing rise in hospitalizations due to COVID19, new cases and deaths.

The increase was 4 days be4 stay-at-home ended. Rise since May 11.

JUNE 11: this is when the meeting talked about "we are on a trajectory to reach the virtual limits of hospital ICU capacity within the next 10 days."

Hours later, Governor Ducey would have a press conference saying Arizona hospitals have capacity.

JUNE 11: ADHS employee writes notes about how the ship has basically already sailed, "So whatever happens in the next 10 days, the die has already been cast and nothing we do now could modify it."

The governor would not close bars, gyms, tubing until 18 days later, on June 29.

That same meeting, notes were made about how the argument of testing volume and the most recent increase in cases is present, but "weak"

JUNE 11th: Notes show that lead members of the group were concerned about the need of public messaging to emphasize the importance of behavior to curb the spread.

That would be the same day Gov. says at presser he wore mask to store.

A little more than a month later, we would see the parachuting mask hot dog, to help with marketing about wearing a mask.

JULY 2: notes about Arizona's Infection Fatality ratio were made.

Arizona is estimated at 0.0064, or 0.64%

"That is higher than CDC estimates for the US using the same method which are at 0.004 or 0.4%."

Then end of August, the notes stop.

No more.

I am told by a member of the modeling team that Dr. Christ was not a part of these meetings. So it is unclear what she was told, or how.

I asked ADHS about the notes gone after August, they said that these meetings were informal and open for discussion. "There are no notes, minutes or agendas created for these meetings beyond the first meeting"

They provided the notes from participants.

Response from ADHS on why notes stop after August:

As for what was said around Nov. ahead of the winter deadly surge, I don't know.

I plan to follow up for more records request.

End/ thread

Full story tonight on #abc15 at 6 with ABC15 analyst @wendysmithreev1

30 minutes from my story airing. No response from the governors office.